Prof Richard Betts
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richardabetts.bsky.social
Prof Richard Betts
@richardabetts.bsky.social

Climate scientist, University of Exeter and Met Office. Expert Adviser to the Adaptation Committee of the Climate Change Committee. Lead author IPCC AR4, AR5 & AR6. Live music lover, supporter of grassroots venues. Cycles a lot, rock climbs occasionally. .. more

Richard Arthur Betts is Head of the Climate Impacts strategic area at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, United Kingdom. He is also chair in Climate Impacts at the University of Exeter and the Principal Investigator of the EU FP7 project HELIX. He was a lead author for Working Group I and a contributing author for Working Group II of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. He was a lead author for Working Group II of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. He is an editor for the International Journal of Global Warming, the Journal of Environmental Investing, and for Earth System Dynamics. He was appointed MBE in the 2019 Birthday Honours. .. more

Environmental science 58%
Geography 17%
Pinned
Looking forward to a 4th term an IPCC Lead Author! I've dotted around a bit over the years:

AR4 - WG1 Radiative Forcing (focussing on land use)
AR5 - WG2 Terrestrial Ecosystems
AR6 - WG2 Water
AR7 - WG1 Global Projections

Always fantastic to work with international colleagues and learn from them

Science is always more interesting when your predictions are wrong! 🤓😅
My pet theory remains that most of the fuss about 2023 was because most of the projections (from late 2022) were wrong since they got El Nino wrong (they thought it was La Nina).

It is not easy getting El Nino right either: 2023 is either La Nina or El Nino depending on lags and annualisation.

Except for 2023, our predictions of the annual CO2 rise at Mauna Loa conditional on the preceding April-March Nino3.4 SSTs have been better than what we’d predict based on emissions alone

April-March chosen based on @chrisd-jones.bsky.social previous work - we’ve not revisited that since 2023 yet!

Reposted by Richard Betts

My pet theory remains that most of the fuss about 2023 was because most of the projections (from late 2022) were wrong since they got El Nino wrong (they thought it was La Nina).

It is not easy getting El Nino right either: 2023 is either La Nina or El Nino depending on lags and annualisation.

This all sounds great for train travel from London to continental Europe! New Eurostar services to Cologne, Frankfurt and Geneva and shorter waiting times at St Pancras 😀

www.ft.com/content/ff71...
London St Pancras revamp aims to cut Eurostar waiting time to 15 minutes
Planned £100mn overhaul of train station will seek to end ‘holding pen’ experience for passengers
www.ft.com

Reposted by Richard Betts

The results from Wales and elsewhere show a 25% reduction in casualties. So if you keep a 30mph limit on urban/village roads where pedestrians and cyclists mix with motors you are imposing 1/3 more casualties on your community. It's why Transport Professionals are saying #20splenty
Delivering 20 _ Making 20mph work
This is our 4th webinar in the series of Delivering 20. This focused, one and a half hour session will unpack the behavioural and cultural factors that shape the…
vimeo.com
Read this from Ben Santer (very famous climate scientist for those who don’t know) about what NCAR means and what dismantling it will do.
Threatening NCAR, Trump administration seeks to extinguish a beacon of climate science
The Trump administration’s world view is that the US doesn’t need a climate science brain trust because it doesn’t like what the brains say.
thebulletin.org

Reposted by Richard Betts

The objectives of a default 20mph were explained very well by this Welsh Assembly Member in 2018. And its great to see that since implementing 20mph as the default for urban, built-up areas there have been over 1,000 fewer casualties on those roads.

Reposted by Richard Betts

Good news! Eventually I hope we’ll climb back to the opportunities and freedom we enjoyed before the Great Brexit Regression
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
www.theguardian.com

As a gentleman of a certain age I say let him have his fun while he can
utterly incapable of grace

Reposted by Richard Betts

Will today, 14th Dec 2025, be the last day of a UK Gov 15-year era when it has had no English Road Safety Strategy. Whilst other UK nations have moved forward with their own RSS and the acceptance of 20mph as a transformational norm for communities, England is still locked in a postcode lottery.
More than 250 people who were exposed to measles, including dozens of unvaccinated school-aged children, are quarantining in South Carolina as the state wrestles to contain an outbreak that has sickened more than 110 people.
Hundreds Quarantined in South Carolina as Measles Outbreak Shows No Sign of Slowing
The outbreak shows no signs of slowing, likely because of the affected area’s “lower-than-hoped-for vaccination coverage,” a state health official said.
nyti.ms

Reposted by Richard Betts

Just TWO more days to have your say in shaping Exeter's new Culture Strategy. 🎭📚🎨

💬 The survey only takes a few minutes and is open until 12 Dec.

👉 Take part here: engage.exeter.gov.uk/exeter-culture-strategy
Developing Exeter's Culture Strategy
Exeter City Council is developing a Culture Strategy. The survey explores how you experience creativity and culture in the place you call home. The survey will only take a few minutes. Your feedback w...
engage.exeter.gov.uk

Fab week in Paris kicking off the writing of the IPCC 7th Assessment Report, and especially good to have authors from all 3 Working Groups together. I’m in Working Group 1 Chapter 6 (Global projections) - we have a great team led by @flimsin.bsky.social, Vimal Mishra and Tianjun Zhou. Let’s go!! 😀
The IPCC’s First Lead Author Meeting for AR7, is taking place in Paris this week. The French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Mr Jean-Noël Barrot welcomed around 600 authors from more than 100 countries to the Quai d’Orsay on Tuesday evening.

bit.ly/4ir09cC
The IPCC’s First Lead Author Meeting for AR7, is taking place in Paris this week. The French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Mr Jean-Noël Barrot welcomed around 600 authors from more than 100 countries to the Quai d’Orsay on Tuesday evening.

bit.ly/4ir09cC
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg

My final talk of COP30

And more! 😊

More Amazon sustainability science at COP30 today!

Every day!

Our next COP30 event -
tomorrow (Saturday)

Global Carbon Budget
AmazonFACE
Science Panel for the Amazon
Science Panel for Borneo
Science Panel for the Congo Basin

Today!
If you’re at COP30 please join us to discuss what the world would be like without forests! UK pavilion Thursday 16:30 - 18:00 including food and drink after 😃

If you’re at COP30 please join us to discuss what the world would be like without forests! UK pavilion Thursday 16:30 - 18:00 including food and drink after 😃

Thanks! Hadn’t heard he’d died cos out of touch travelling otherwise yes it would have been obvious!

Who? Sorry if this should be obvious!
The sad thing is, I remember sketching changes in temperature and heavy precip distributions in exactly this way in the early 2000s, just to now watch it play out.

The animation very much reminds me of an angry beast pulling on its chains; and they are tearing loose...
Exactly! Which makes the real climate shift way scarier. Like shown by the data from svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5452/

Our big experiment in the Amazon rainforest

AmazonFACE will use Free Air CO2 Enrichment ("FACE") methods to study the effect of elevated CO2 on the forest

We'll study the impacts on carbon, water and nutrient cycles and biodiversity, and use this to improve models

www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaq0...
Como funciona o AmazonFACE, megaexoerimento inédito com torres gigantes que 'cospem' CO2 na Amazônia
YouTube video by Folha de S.Paulo
www.youtube.com

*** 1 metre of rain ***
Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is forecast to bring catastrophic damage to parts of the Caribbean

The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides

Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely

Reposted by Richard Betts

Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is forecast to bring catastrophic damage to parts of the Caribbean

The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides

Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely

Last year the driver of this van illegally passed through a bus gate, deliberately drove at people holding a “Safe Streets Now” banner, hit one of them, then drove off

Today at Exeter Crown Court he was found guilty of dangerous driving and banned for 12 months

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engl...
Exeter: Van filmed being driven through traffic protest
Police investigate after it was reported that a Safe Streets Now protester was struck by the van.
www.bbc.co.uk