Robbie Andrew
@robbieandrew.bsky.social
Senior scientist at Oslo-based CICERO Center for International Climate Research • 🌍Global Carbon Project • https://robbieandrew.github.io/
Environmental science
43%
Economics
15%
Pinned
CICEROdagen 2025 - En hel dag med klimakunnskap - Auditorium 0001
YouTube video by CICERO klima
youtu.be
On Tuesday I gave a ten-minute update on where global fossil CO₂ emissions are at.
Czech
Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Robbie M. Andrew
If you’re looking for some holiday reading, my new book — Clearing the Air — is on offer at £1.99 on Kindle for the next 24 hours.
Hope you enjoy!
www.amazon.co.uk/Clearing-Air...
Hope you enjoy!
www.amazon.co.uk/Clearing-Air...
Opinion | How Did a City of 10 Million People Nearly Run Out of Water?
www.nytimes.com
Tehran has narrowly avoided Day Zero, but how much longer can it hold out? 🎁🔗
It's interesting that fusion is generally presented as unlimited energy, and that this is an unalloyed 'good thing'. I wonder what havoc we could wreak on our planet and each other with unlimited energy...
Hydrogen emissions are ‘supercharging’ the warming impact of methane - Carbon Brief
The warming impact of hydrogen has been “overlooked” in projections of climate change, authors of the latest “global hydrogen budget” say.
www.carbonbrief.org
The Global Carbon Project has just published the most comprehensive Global Hydrogen Budget to date.
H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2.
Carbon Brief:
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
Research paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2.
Carbon Brief:
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
Research paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Perhaps @esavakkilainen.bsky.social has some insight here.
Hehe. That's some arcane knowledge right there!
We also shouldn't just wait until aviation is finally willing or forced to use more biofuels to then figure out how to ensure they're sustainable. We should do that ground work now. And experience is a good teacher.
It will take a long time to transition the entire fleet to EVs. The solution in the meantime is to fuel a share of the ICE vehicles on biofuels, as long as those biofuels can be sourced sustainably. Yes, a big "if". Aviation simply isn't using a lot biofuel, but may do so later.
We don't actually have a plan A. We have a lot of potential solutions, none of which individually will fix things. The plan, if you want to call it that, is to try everything, all at once, everywhere. Biofuels are in there, but for road transport only transitional.
For road transport, it simply takes time to turn over the vehicle fleet to EVs. In the meantime, if sustainable biofuels can be sourced, then they can be used to hasten emissions reductions. It's a big "if", but the EU at least tries to ensure biofuels are sustainable.
Enhanced competitiveness and increased employment through domestic production of biofuels | f3 centre
The full text is available in Swedish. All renewable fuels, in large quantities, are needed to achieve a fossil-independent vehicle fleet. However, to fully benefit from a fossil-independent vehicle…
f3centre.se
90% of the biofuels used in Sweden in 2023 were either imported directly or made locally from imported raw materials.
Sveriges utsläpp och upptag av växthusgaser
Enligt slutlig klimatstatistik för 2024 uppgick Sveriges territoriella utsläpp av växthusgaser till 47,5 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter (exklusive LULUCF). Jämfört med 2023 ökade utsläppen med dr...
www.naturvardsverket.se
Report about the newly released estimates from Sweden's EPA here:
Nothing at all unusual in Sweden revising their LULUCF estimates...
Before the rule change, Sweden had by far the highest level of biofuel blending in Europe (data only through 2023).
robbieandrew.github.io/sweden/
robbieandrew.github.io/sweden/
Here's what happened to fuel prices in Sweden. The government reduced the "CO₂ reduction obligation" (effectively: biofuel mandate) from 1st January 2024. The purpose was to drive fuel prices down, and that's what it did.
robbieandrew.github.io/sweden/
robbieandrew.github.io/sweden/
Country page
robbieandrew.github.io
Graph in previous post from here: robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou...
Helpfully for Sweden, the net estimated uptake in the LULUCF (forests etc) sector grew by more than the increase in emissions in other sectors, so their 'total' emissions including LULUCF declined from -1.8 MtCO₂e to -6.7 MtCO₂e. But LULUCF numbers are subject to VERY heavy revision.
Of course, the main result of the drop in the biodiesel blending rate is that actual emissions in Sweden will go up, because they burned more fossil fuels in their tanks in 2024. This is a much more significant effect than the interesting quirk about accounting methods.
This was well signposted. "Emissions in Sweden will go up, because they burned more fossil fuel in their tanks in 2024."
Total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases by greenhouse gas and sector. Year 1990 - 2024-Statistikdatabasen
www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se
Sweden's greenhouse gas emissions increased by 7.4% in 2024, largely a result of a dramatic reduction in the use of biofuels in road transport. Emissions in the "domestic transport" sector were up 21%.
IEA's annual coal report. There are a bunch of different factors in play, making it a non-trivial exercise (as always) to forecast which way global coal consumption will go in the coming years.
I suspect you'd get a similar loss in range in a petrol car at 80mph compared to 70mph. Perhaps we're just much more conscious of range with EVs.
This sort of thing would also be relevant in Norway, where the growth in sales of EVs in some regions - particularly the far north with its very long driving distances - was delayed until range improved. Now Norway is shutting down incentives nationally, without any mention of these regions.
Elbilfordeler er for byfolk
Bilister i sentrale strøk har fått hundrevis av milliarder i elbil-fordel fra staten. Akkurat når folk i grisgrendte strøk kan benytte seg av fordelene, blir de strupet. Av de rødgrønne.
www.nationen.no
It's a few years behind not because of population, but because EVs have been less attractive as an alternative to ICEs until more recently. Both the cold and the long distances mean that the range of cars in 2010-2012 was simply insufficient.
I'm sure there are variations, but the ones I've read about (there's one in Norway somewhere) are not heat pumps at all, as I understand it. Just storing excess heat then recovering it later.
Yes, the current sales share in the far north is high. But it has risen much more slowly, which means the share of cars that are EV there is lower. That's the point.
Certainly, if you decide that policy decisions are set in concrete, which isn't really a thing in real-world politics!
But even then, phasing out one policy doesn't mean we can't consider others that are more balanced when there are specific goals that are desired.
But even then, phasing out one policy doesn't mean we can't consider others that are more balanced when there are specific goals that are desired.
Elbilfordeler er for byfolk
Bilister i sentrale strøk har fått hundrevis av milliarder i elbil-fordel fra staten. Akkurat når folk i grisgrendte strøk kan benytte seg av fordelene, blir de strupet. Av de rødgrønne.
www.nationen.no
This sort of thing would also be relevant in Norway, where the growth in sales of EVs in some regions - particularly the far north with its very long driving distances - was delayed until range improved. Now Norway is shutting down incentives nationally, without any mention of these regions.
Reposted by Andréas Nilsson
"It targets low- and middle-income households living in 177 rural municipalities and 433 areas with limited public transport. Furthermore, households applying for the scheme must not already own or lease a battery-electric vehicle."
Funding mainly "from the upcoming emissions trading system ETS2."
Funding mainly "from the upcoming emissions trading system ETS2."