Wim Thiery
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wimthiery.bsky.social
Wim Thiery
@wimthiery.bsky.social

Climate scientist modelling extreme events in a changing climate, Associate Professor @vubrussel.bsky.social. Previously research fellow @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social and @ethz.ch. Website: https://sites.google.com/site/wimthiery/ .. more

Environmental science 62%
Geography 18%
Pinned
Will you live an unprecedented life?

In our new paper in @nature.com and accompanying @savethechildren.org report, we detect who will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes (🧵) 1/n
Report: resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/document/bor...
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Born into the Climate Crisis 2. An unprecedented life: Protecting children’s rights in a changing climate | Save the Children’s Resource Centre
The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it is a pressing reality that children are facing today. Despite having contributed the least to the climate crisis, the inherent intergenerational injustic...
resourcecentre.savethechildren.net

10 jaar na de klimaatconferentie van Parijs gaat het deze week in Belém over hoe we dat klimaatakkoord van Parijs in stand kunnen houden: "We moeten daarvoor zes keer meer doen dan wat nu op tafel ligt."

www.vrt.be/vrtmax/luist...
VRT MAX
www.vrt.be
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.

Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Guterres is right.
Even a temporary overshoot could unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation. It could push ecosystems past catastrophic and irreversible tipping points.
Fossil fuel companies are deceiving the public and obstructing progress. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Missing 1.5C climate target is a moral failure, Guterres tells Cop30 summit
UN secretary general urges opening session in Brazil to bring about a ‘fundamental paradigm shift’
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Du Toit, Wim Thiery

If we do not seriously move away from burning fossil fuels, hurricanes like Melissa will only become worse. Already today Melissa tested the limits of what preparedness and adaptation can do. These limits are very real for everyone in the Caribbean. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

VUB press release about Yi Yao's three publications on irrigation-climate interactions: www.vub.be/en/news/when...
When Irrigation Backfires
Global farming practices are driving heat stress and water strain, VUB researchers warn
www.vub.be

This is the second study analyzing the outputs of the @wcrp-cmip.org endorsed #IRRMIP project. It's also the third paper led by the amazing Yi Yao (VUB PhD graduate), coming out this year. bsky.app/profile/wimt...

For example, irrigation expansion more then doubled the trend in water loss to the atmosphere (P-E) in South Asia after 1960. As a consequence, the local terrestrial water storage (TWS) depletes over time following irrigation expansion.

Reposted by Benjamin I. Cook

In our new study @natwater.nature.com led by Yi Yao @ethz.ch, we show that irrigation expansion in many regions substantially decreases the net water influx from the atmosphere to land, further aggravating the existing drying trends caused by climate change www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Irrigation-induced land water depletion aggravated by climate change - Nature Water
The rapid expansion of agricultural irrigation raises concerns about exacerbating water scarcity, but land–atmosphere interactions are often overlooked. This study isolates irrigation impacts from oth...
www.nature.com

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Two years ago, the @esabcc.bsky.social published its advice on the EU's 2040 emissions reduction target. We indicated a 90-95% reduction relative 1990 levels.

Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% target, with an 66.25-72.5% reduction as part for its new NDC for 2035.
Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2040. The Council also updated the NDC with an indicative 66.25–72.5% reduction by 2035 The @esabcc.bsky.social contributed to this process by providing independent scientific advice on the 2040 climate target.
Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report.

It's title says it all

OFF TARGET

that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...
What is the current state of climate action? What do latest country pledges add up to?
And how much global warming are we in for? 🌍🌡️ 🔥
For the 16th year in a row, we publish the @unep.org #emissionsgap report.
As usual, I looked the assessment of the global gap and its global warming implications.
NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

"Parijs was speciaal omdat het de eerste keer was dat er een exact temperatuurdoel werd ingesteld. Het stellen van een doel was enorm belangrijk voor landen, ngo's, bedrijven enzovoort. Het geeft een richting aan." vrtnws.be/p.xZpjAKbyl
"Een armageddon is vermeden": wat leverde het klimaatakkoord van Parijs al op? | VRT NWS: nieuws
Dankzij het klimaatakkoord van Parijs stevent onze planeet niet meer af op 4 graden opwarming, maar op 2,6 graden extra. Concreet kunnen we daarmee gemiddeld 57 extreem warme dagen per jaar vermijden....
vrtnws.be

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Extended hurricane category scale, following Wehner&Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy 2024: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.

Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to dry- and moist-heat stress.

In contract, moist-heat extreme event frequency increases substantially due to irrigation (by ≥1600 h yr−1 under SSP3-7.0 in tropics), and irrigation amplifies the hours of exposure (by ≥100 h yr−1 in South Asia), raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses & mortality for exposed communities

Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emissions

We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ~2100 to ~1700 km3 yr−1) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ~2400 km3 yr−1), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa

Irrigation is an important historical climate forcing, but so far no study explored its future climatic impacts considering possible changes in both extent and efficiency.

We develop irrigation efficiency scenarios along the SSPs, implement these in CESM, and generate projections for 2015–2074.
Future changes in irrigation will reduce dry-heat stress (without reversing GHG trend) and will substantially amplify moist-heat stress (strengthening GHG trend).

New study @natcomms.nature.com led by Yi Yao @hydr-vub.bsky.social and @usyseth.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress - Nature Communications
This study shows that future exposures to moist-heat increase more rapidly than those to dry-heat, and irrigation can further amplify moist-heat-related health risks. Improving irrigation efficiency a...
www.nature.com

Many congratulations Yann, this is wonderful news and truly deserved!!!
I wanted to offer some thoughts on the Gates climate memo that has been circulating this week. While I can't directly speak for others, I can say that my own response is one of dismay & deep frustration (and that this view is shared by many climate/Earth scientists). [1/n]
#HurricaneMelissa was made about four times more likely by the #climatecrisis

It's real, it's us, and it's here

www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/res...
Hurricane Melissa
Published October 2025.
www.imperial.ac.uk

Reposted by Wim Thiery

World’s climate plans fall drastically short of action needed, analysis shows

- Recent plans submitted to UN by more than 60 countries would cut carbon by only 10%, a sixth of what is needed

#climatecrisis
Story by @fionaharvey.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
World’s climate plans fall drastically short of action needed, analysis shows
Recent plans submitted to UN by more than 60 countries would cut carbon by only 10%, a sixth of what is needed
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Wim Thiery

6 AM Tuesday morning #HurricaneMelissa approaches Jamaica. Horrifying next 24 hours
says Dr. Shepherd. Pray. Been at this a long-time one of the most horrific, well-formed hurricanes I have ever seen. 175 mph winds and a direct landfall looming

Reposted by Wim Thiery

I am the first Indigenous journalist to exclusively interview UN head António Guterres. How many others will listen?

By Wajã Xipai
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
I am the first Indigenous journalist to exclusively interview António Guterres. How many others will listen?
A young journalist reflects on the UN leader’s responses, and hopes his messages – about human violence and an increasingly hostile planet – resonated before Cop30
www.theguardian.com
A display of pure power from Hurricane Melissa today.

Remarkable satellite imagery.

Op deze dag waarop belgische universiteiten protesteren tegen de kille besparingen op hoger onderwijs en wetenschappelijk onderzoek, komt deze boodschap van het Nobelprijscommité duidelijk binnen.