Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes.
Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC AR7 lead author / NCA5 author.
Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/
Twitter: @hausfath
Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC AR7 lead author / NCA5 author.
Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/
Twitter: @hausfath
Pinned
Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
· Jun 30
The great acceleration debate
Why the consilience of evidence points toward acceleration
www.theclimatebrink.com
Is global warming accelerating? Over at The Climate Brink I argue that the consilience of evidence from surface temperatures, climate models, forcing changes, ocean heat content, and earth energy imbalance all point toward yes: www.theclimatebrink....
In the era of affordability politics, making clean energy cheaper may be a more viable emissions mitigation strategy than making dirty energy more expensive. My latest over at The Climate Brink digs into the debate:
Keep it in the ground?
When the politics of affordability meet the needs of climate mitigation
www.theclimatebrink.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
In the era of affordability politics, making clean energy cheaper may be a more viable emissions mitigation strategy than making dirty energy more expensive. My latest over at The Climate Brink digs into the debate:
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Mamdani has only been Mayor for a day & criminals are already fleeing New York
January 2, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Mamdani has only been Mayor for a day & criminals are already fleeing New York
Humans have emitted 2750 gigatons of CO2 since the industrial revolution from burning fossil fuels and land use change. To put this in perspective, this is more than the (dry) mass of all living things on earth and everything humans have ever built combined:
January 2, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Humans have emitted 2750 gigatons of CO2 since the industrial revolution from burning fossil fuels and land use change. To put this in perspective, this is more than the (dry) mass of all living things on earth and everything humans have ever built combined:
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
The UK's warmest year (for now)
And introducing a ‘causal chain’ for changes in extreme UK heat
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-uks-wa...
And introducing a ‘causal chain’ for changes in extreme UK heat
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-uks-wa...
January 2, 2026 at 12:18 PM
The UK's warmest year (for now)
And introducing a ‘causal chain’ for changes in extreme UK heat
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-uks-wa...
And introducing a ‘causal chain’ for changes in extreme UK heat
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-uks-wa...
Over at The Climate Brink @andrewdessler.com and I have an end of the year wrap up chat: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climat...
The Climate Brink 2025 wrap-up
The biggest stories of 2025 and a few predictions for 2026
www.theclimatebrink.com
January 1, 2026 at 5:08 PM
Over at The Climate Brink @andrewdessler.com and I have an end of the year wrap up chat: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climat...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Head of the Revolving Door Project is baselessly accusing Jesse Jenkins of being a hyperscaler shill.
No path to decarb that is this hostile to private sector engagement. You can’t transform sectors, deploy technology, or build state capacity this way.
No path to decarb that is this hostile to private sector engagement. You can’t transform sectors, deploy technology, or build state capacity this way.
December 27, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Head of the Revolving Door Project is baselessly accusing Jesse Jenkins of being a hyperscaler shill.
No path to decarb that is this hostile to private sector engagement. You can’t transform sectors, deploy technology, or build state capacity this way.
No path to decarb that is this hostile to private sector engagement. You can’t transform sectors, deploy technology, or build state capacity this way.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
“This year, renewables surpassed coal as a source of electricity worldwide, and solar and wind energy grew fast enough to cover the entire increase in global electricity use from January to June, according to energy think tank Ember” www.science.org/content/arti...
Science’s 2025 Breakthrough of the Year: The unstoppable rise of renewable energy
Clean energy infrastructure is being deployed with unmatched scale and speed—and China is leading the way
www.science.org
December 26, 2025 at 1:29 AM
“This year, renewables surpassed coal as a source of electricity worldwide, and solar and wind energy grew fast enough to cover the entire increase in global electricity use from January to June, according to energy think tank Ember” www.science.org/content/arti...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
"Hard-to-abate" is sometimes code for "we haven't looked closely yet." This great new report shows opportunities for clean heat (low/medium-temp industrial process heat) through electrification, which also has public health benefits.
December 23, 2025 at 4:29 PM
"Hard-to-abate" is sometimes code for "we haven't looked closely yet." This great new report shows opportunities for clean heat (low/medium-temp industrial process heat) through electrification, which also has public health benefits.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
This is bunk. These sites are chosen to not interfere with radar systems, according to the process listed on...the Department of Energy's website: windexchange.energy.gov/projects/rad...
December 22, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This is bunk. These sites are chosen to not interfere with radar systems, according to the process listed on...the Department of Energy's website: windexchange.energy.gov/projects/rad...
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
December 20, 2025 at 5:43 PM
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
December 18, 2025 at 8:47 PM
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
This train of logic seems to go:
1) Invent AGI
2) ...
3) Universal basic income
I'd posit that massively enriching AI labs and companies while others lose jobs would be a much more likely outcome than somehow changing our politics to enable a post-scarcity socialist utopia 🙄
1) Invent AGI
2) ...
3) Universal basic income
I'd posit that massively enriching AI labs and companies while others lose jobs would be a much more likely outcome than somehow changing our politics to enable a post-scarcity socialist utopia 🙄
December 18, 2025 at 2:38 PM
This train of logic seems to go:
1) Invent AGI
2) ...
3) Universal basic income
I'd posit that massively enriching AI labs and companies while others lose jobs would be a much more likely outcome than somehow changing our politics to enable a post-scarcity socialist utopia 🙄
1) Invent AGI
2) ...
3) Universal basic income
I'd posit that massively enriching AI labs and companies while others lose jobs would be a much more likely outcome than somehow changing our politics to enable a post-scarcity socialist utopia 🙄
Threatening to dismantle NCAR, our premier weather and climate research institute (apparently) because Colorado refuses to pardon someone accused of tampering with voting machines is a sad example of our current kakistocracy in action… www.nytimes.com/2025...
December 17, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Threatening to dismantle NCAR, our premier weather and climate research institute (apparently) because Colorado refuses to pardon someone accused of tampering with voting machines is a sad example of our current kakistocracy in action… www.nytimes.com/2025...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
NCAR is a unique & valuable asset - far more than a climate model, or observations, or technology, or training ground, or gathering space. It covers weather, space weather, data, climate, paleo-climate, and everything in-between. It's building is an icon, but it's iconic status goes far beyond that.
December 17, 2025 at 12:21 PM
NCAR is a unique & valuable asset - far more than a climate model, or observations, or technology, or training ground, or gathering space. It covers weather, space weather, data, climate, paleo-climate, and everything in-between. It's building is an icon, but it's iconic status goes far beyond that.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
The new GloSAT temperature dataset extends our observational estimates of global temperature change back to 1781
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
New estimates of surface temperature change since the late 18th century
Releasing an observation-based global temperature dataset extending back to 1781
climatelabbook.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM
The new GloSAT temperature dataset extends our observational estimates of global temperature change back to 1781
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
New Orleans Convention Center, my badly laid-out nemesis: I am back to walk your length.
December 15, 2025 at 2:46 PM
New Orleans Convention Center, my badly laid-out nemesis: I am back to walk your length.
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
On The Climate Brink, I write about the connection between climate change and flooding in the Pacific Northwest.
Yes, climate change is enhancing the flooding.
Yes, climate change is enhancing the flooding.
TCB quick hit: How climate change broke the Pacific Northwest’s plumbing
It’s not just wetter storms—it’s also the important shift from snow to rain
open.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
On The Climate Brink, I write about the connection between climate change and flooding in the Pacific Northwest.
Yes, climate change is enhancing the flooding.
Yes, climate change is enhancing the flooding.
Actual climate scientist here. 2.5C is on the optimistic end of the literature on current policy outcomes, which spans the range from 2.3C to 3C. I wrote a review of the literature on the subject earlier this year: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
December 13, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Actual climate scientist here. 2.5C is on the optimistic end of the literature on current policy outcomes, which spans the range from 2.3C to 3C. I wrote a review of the literature on the subject earlier this year: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
The US has already largely ceded renewable energy manufacturing dominance to China, but now we also risk also falling behind on next generation clean energy: www.nytimes.com/2025...
December 13, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The US has already largely ceded renewable energy manufacturing dominance to China, but now we also risk also falling behind on next generation clean energy: www.nytimes.com/2025...
This is a bit of a misinterpretation of what current policies entail. They generally do not assume that countries accomplish either their NDCs under Paris or net zero goals. CPs with flat emissions lead to warming close to 3C by 2100, while 2.5C requires declines journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
December 12, 2025 at 11:01 PM
This is a bit of a misinterpretation of what current policies entail. They generally do not assume that countries accomplish either their NDCs under Paris or net zero goals. CPs with flat emissions lead to warming close to 3C by 2100, while 2.5C requires declines journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
In a new article over at Carbon Brief, I explore why the past three years – 2023, 2024, and 2025 – have been exceptionally warm. The main culprits turn out to be a combination of El Nino and internal variability, declining aerosols, and a strong solar cycle: www.carbonbrief.org/...
December 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
In a new article over at Carbon Brief, I explore why the past three years – 2023, 2024, and 2025 – have been exceptionally warm. The main culprits turn out to be a combination of El Nino and internal variability, declining aerosols, and a strong solar cycle: www.carbonbrief.org/...
I have a new update to climate model-observation comparisons over at The Climate Brink, covering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Models perform well globally. The latest generation shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends: www.theclimatebrink....
December 6, 2025 at 8:42 PM
I have a new update to climate model-observation comparisons over at The Climate Brink, covering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Models perform well globally. The latest generation shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends: www.theclimatebrink....
November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):
December 2, 2025 at 6:42 AM
November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):
LLMs are fast becoming a major source of information.
In a new piece over at The Climate Brink, I argue that LLMs are fundamentally consensus machines, and could help defragment our information ecosystem – at least if their creators do not put thumbs on the digital scale.
In a new piece over at The Climate Brink, I argue that LLMs are fundamentally consensus machines, and could help defragment our information ecosystem – at least if their creators do not put thumbs on the digital scale.
Consensus machines
Will the AI future inadvertently recenter expertise?
www.theclimatebrink.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:18 PM
LLMs are fast becoming a major source of information.
In a new piece over at The Climate Brink, I argue that LLMs are fundamentally consensus machines, and could help defragment our information ecosystem – at least if their creators do not put thumbs on the digital scale.
In a new piece over at The Climate Brink, I argue that LLMs are fundamentally consensus machines, and could help defragment our information ecosystem – at least if their creators do not put thumbs on the digital scale.
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
November 18, 2025 at 4:53 PM
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)