Simon Lee
@simonleewx.com
Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, University of St Andrews. Large-scale weather & climate variability, prediction & change. simonleewx.com
Yorkshire Water’s Thruscross Reservoir on 16 September (left) and today (right) — now full and overflowing.
Another situation of a tremendous hydrological swing and another lucky escape from critical drought.
But we won’t always be so lucky…
Another situation of a tremendous hydrological swing and another lucky escape from critical drought.
But we won’t always be so lucky…
December 24, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Yorkshire Water’s Thruscross Reservoir on 16 September (left) and today (right) — now full and overflowing.
Another situation of a tremendous hydrological swing and another lucky escape from critical drought.
But we won’t always be so lucky…
Another situation of a tremendous hydrological swing and another lucky escape from critical drought.
But we won’t always be so lucky…
Reposted by Simon Lee
🧵⬇️ Here's the weather data for November 2025 in the Lomond Hills. A bit late I know! 😆
Warmer than average. The first half was exceptionally mild, with temperatures barely dropping below 5C, but a sudden change to colder conditions thereafter meant Nov finally came out closer to average. #Fife
Warmer than average. The first half was exceptionally mild, with temperatures barely dropping below 5C, but a sudden change to colder conditions thereafter meant Nov finally came out closer to average. #Fife
December 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
🧵⬇️ Here's the weather data for November 2025 in the Lomond Hills. A bit late I know! 😆
Warmer than average. The first half was exceptionally mild, with temperatures barely dropping below 5C, but a sudden change to colder conditions thereafter meant Nov finally came out closer to average. #Fife
Warmer than average. The first half was exceptionally mild, with temperatures barely dropping below 5C, but a sudden change to colder conditions thereafter meant Nov finally came out closer to average. #Fife
Reposted by Simon Lee
📣 We seek to appoint a Chair (with rank of professor) within the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences. The successful candidate will be an outstanding scholar of international standing in the field.
🗓 Closing Date: 23 March 2026
Full details: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
🗓 Closing Date: 23 March 2026
Full details: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
Chair in Earth Sciences - AC2672
Chair in Earth Sciences - AC2672,
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Salary: Grade 9/Negotiable
Start Date: September 2026
,
<p style="margin-right: 22.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: bl...
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk
December 23, 2025 at 12:47 PM
📣 We seek to appoint a Chair (with rank of professor) within the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences. The successful candidate will be an outstanding scholar of international standing in the field.
🗓 Closing Date: 23 March 2026
Full details: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
🗓 Closing Date: 23 March 2026
Full details: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
Reposted by Simon Lee
A really nice two-part article series from Ken Mylne @metoffice.gov.uk on probability forecasts just published open access online in @rmets.org Weather
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Probability forecasts – Part 1: ensembles and probabilistic forecasts
Ensemble weather forecasts have been in use for many years to help forecasters understand uncertainty in weather predictions but are now becoming core to some operational Numerical Weather Prediction...
doi.org
December 18, 2025 at 2:41 PM
A really nice two-part article series from Ken Mylne @metoffice.gov.uk on probability forecasts just published open access online in @rmets.org Weather
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Reposted by Simon Lee
WCRP’s APARC releases a landmark report on global atmospheric impacts of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption.
159 scientists. 21 countries. 3 years. One report.
More information here: https://loom.ly/bF203o8
#WCRP #APARC #ClimateScience #HungaEruption
159 scientists. 21 countries. 3 years. One report.
More information here: https://loom.ly/bF203o8
#WCRP #APARC #ClimateScience #HungaEruption
December 18, 2025 at 7:03 PM
WCRP’s APARC releases a landmark report on global atmospheric impacts of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption.
159 scientists. 21 countries. 3 years. One report.
More information here: https://loom.ly/bF203o8
#WCRP #APARC #ClimateScience #HungaEruption
159 scientists. 21 countries. 3 years. One report.
More information here: https://loom.ly/bF203o8
#WCRP #APARC #ClimateScience #HungaEruption
A really nice two-part article series from Ken Mylne @metoffice.gov.uk on probability forecasts just published open access online in @rmets.org Weather
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Probability forecasts – Part 1: ensembles and probabilistic forecasts
Ensemble weather forecasts have been in use for many years to help forecasters understand uncertainty in weather predictions but are now becoming core to some operational Numerical Weather Prediction...
doi.org
December 18, 2025 at 2:41 PM
A really nice two-part article series from Ken Mylne @metoffice.gov.uk on probability forecasts just published open access online in @rmets.org Weather
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 1: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Part 2: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Would be an absolutely devastating blow for science on an international scale, not just within the US. Hard to comprehend.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Would be an absolutely devastating blow for science on an international scale, not just within the US. Hard to comprehend.
If only everything in life were as certain as the GFS 18Z occasionally going all out on a winter lover’s dream by 384h
December 16, 2025 at 11:16 PM
If only everything in life were as certain as the GFS 18Z occasionally going all out on a winter lover’s dream by 384h
Reposted by Simon Lee
Latest @ukceh.bsky.social UK hydrological summary for November 2025 - very wet with shift from #drought to #flood concerns and consistent with an expected more variable and extreme water cycle in a warming #climate:
nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
December 16, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Latest @ukceh.bsky.social UK hydrological summary for November 2025 - very wet with shift from #drought to #flood concerns and consistent with an expected more variable and extreme water cycle in a warming #climate:
nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Simon Lee
I have a new update to climate model-observation comparisons over at The Climate Brink, covering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Models perform well globally. The latest generation shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends: www.theclimatebrink....
December 6, 2025 at 8:42 PM
I have a new update to climate model-observation comparisons over at The Climate Brink, covering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Models perform well globally. The latest generation shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends: www.theclimatebrink....
A beautiful day in St Andrews marking a change from recent weeks!
So far this month, Leuchars (nearest obs) has received 66.2mm of rain (105% of the December average) and only 16.5h of sunshine (31% of the December average).
So far this month, Leuchars (nearest obs) has received 66.2mm of rain (105% of the December average) and only 16.5h of sunshine (31% of the December average).
December 16, 2025 at 2:44 PM
A beautiful day in St Andrews marking a change from recent weeks!
So far this month, Leuchars (nearest obs) has received 66.2mm of rain (105% of the December average) and only 16.5h of sunshine (31% of the December average).
So far this month, Leuchars (nearest obs) has received 66.2mm of rain (105% of the December average) and only 16.5h of sunshine (31% of the December average).
Reposted by Simon Lee
December 16, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Reposted by Simon Lee
North Atlantic Conveyor: GeoColour - True Colour daytime, multispectral IR at night - 16 Dec 2025 - to 0820 UTC.
December 16, 2025 at 8:42 AM
North Atlantic Conveyor: GeoColour - True Colour daytime, multispectral IR at night - 16 Dec 2025 - to 0820 UTC.
Reposted by Simon Lee
As we move into the final days of the year, 2025 has just overtaken 2022 as warmest year-to-date for Central England.
Given the forecast, it looks likely that 2025 will end up being the warmest calendar year for this region since records began in 1659.
The top 3 warmest will be 2022, 2023 & 2025.
Given the forecast, it looks likely that 2025 will end up being the warmest calendar year for this region since records began in 1659.
The top 3 warmest will be 2022, 2023 & 2025.
December 14, 2025 at 6:10 PM
As we move into the final days of the year, 2025 has just overtaken 2022 as warmest year-to-date for Central England.
Given the forecast, it looks likely that 2025 will end up being the warmest calendar year for this region since records began in 1659.
The top 3 warmest will be 2022, 2023 & 2025.
Given the forecast, it looks likely that 2025 will end up being the warmest calendar year for this region since records began in 1659.
The top 3 warmest will be 2022, 2023 & 2025.
Reposted by Simon Lee
The new GloSAT temperature dataset extends our observational estimates of global temperature change back to 1781
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
New estimates of surface temperature change since the late 18th century
Releasing an observation-based global temperature dataset extending back to 1781
climatelabbook.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM
The new GloSAT temperature dataset extends our observational estimates of global temperature change back to 1781
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Blog: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/new-estima...
Paper by Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
According to ERA5, global sea-surface temperature anomalies have fallen back within the pre–2023 climate distribution, after running at unprecedented levels since March 2023.
However, this is still outrageously high given the last El Niño ended in early 2024.
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
However, this is still outrageously high given the last El Niño ended in early 2024.
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
December 15, 2025 at 2:06 PM
According to ERA5, global sea-surface temperature anomalies have fallen back within the pre–2023 climate distribution, after running at unprecedented levels since March 2023.
However, this is still outrageously high given the last El Niño ended in early 2024.
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
However, this is still outrageously high given the last El Niño ended in early 2024.
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
Reposted by Simon Lee
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
iapetus.ac.uk
December 11, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
A really stimulating two day workshop last week – great to see so much interesting & impactful climate science being done across Scotland
On 4–5 December, we hosted the inaugural meeting of the Scottish Climate Science Network! More than 40 researchers from 7 different institutions in Scotland met here in SEES to share research, discuss collaborations and plan for future advancements of climate science in Scotland.
December 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
A really stimulating two day workshop last week – great to see so much interesting & impactful climate science being done across Scotland
Reposted by Simon Lee
🎉 Huge congratulations to Eva Stüeken for being awarded an @erc.europa.eu Consolidator Grant!
“Quantifying the limits of early life through the biogeochemical phosphorus redox cycle”
This win not only celebrates Eva 👏 but also highlights our school’s strength — 6 ERC grants in the last decade! 🚀
“Quantifying the limits of early life through the biogeochemical phosphorus redox cycle”
This win not only celebrates Eva 👏 but also highlights our school’s strength — 6 ERC grants in the last decade! 🚀
December 11, 2025 at 11:27 AM
🎉 Huge congratulations to Eva Stüeken for being awarded an @erc.europa.eu Consolidator Grant!
“Quantifying the limits of early life through the biogeochemical phosphorus redox cycle”
This win not only celebrates Eva 👏 but also highlights our school’s strength — 6 ERC grants in the last decade! 🚀
“Quantifying the limits of early life through the biogeochemical phosphorus redox cycle”
This win not only celebrates Eva 👏 but also highlights our school’s strength — 6 ERC grants in the last decade! 🚀
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
iapetus.ac.uk
December 11, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
Reposted by Simon Lee
Carlisle broke the highest temperature on record for today's date with a high of 16.8 ⁰C (formerly 16.7 °C Torquay, 9.12.1921)
December 10, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Carlisle broke the highest temperature on record for today's date with a high of 16.8 ⁰C (formerly 16.7 °C Torquay, 9.12.1921)
“Our results enhance the confidence in the climate model projections that the tropics will win the ‘tug-of-war’ and that the zonal-mean jet stream will shift poleward in response to future warming.” 👏
Louder for the people at the back!!📣
Louder for the people at the back!!📣
Proud to share our new paper in npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. (@SpringerNature)!
Our findings:
1️⃣ reduce uncertainty in mid-latitude climate projections
2️⃣ increase confidence that #ClimateModels correctly predict a future poleward shift of the #JetStream
Read the paper here 👉 rdcu.be/eS73b
#ClimateScience
Our findings:
1️⃣ reduce uncertainty in mid-latitude climate projections
2️⃣ increase confidence that #ClimateModels correctly predict a future poleward shift of the #JetStream
Read the paper here 👉 rdcu.be/eS73b
#ClimateScience
Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
rdcu.be
December 9, 2025 at 8:32 PM
“Our results enhance the confidence in the climate model projections that the tropics will win the ‘tug-of-war’ and that the zonal-mean jet stream will shift poleward in response to future warming.” 👏
Louder for the people at the back!!📣
Louder for the people at the back!!📣
By the finest of margins, ERA5 shows a reversal of the daily-mean 10 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal winds on 28 November to –0.13 m/s.
That nominally ties with 28 Nov 1968 as the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record in ERA5 post-1958 (when stratospheric observations increased).
That nominally ties with 28 Nov 1968 as the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record in ERA5 post-1958 (when stratospheric observations increased).
December 8, 2025 at 8:13 PM
By the finest of margins, ERA5 shows a reversal of the daily-mean 10 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal winds on 28 November to –0.13 m/s.
That nominally ties with 28 Nov 1968 as the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record in ERA5 post-1958 (when stratospheric observations increased).
That nominally ties with 28 Nov 1968 as the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record in ERA5 post-1958 (when stratospheric observations increased).
Interesting banding in the warm sector over the UK today
December 7, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Interesting banding in the warm sector over the UK today
Reposted by Simon Lee
Our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉
If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read!
Happy to chat about it with people :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read!
Happy to chat about it with people :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
December 4, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉
If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read!
Happy to chat about it with people :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read!
Happy to chat about it with people :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...