Brian McNoldy
@bmcnoldy.bsky.social
Univ. of Miami hurricane researcher 🌀 living in New Mexico 🏜.
Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/
Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/
Early online release!
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 10, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Early online release!
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
With the first nine days of November in the books, and the unseasonably warm days ahead, the first two weeks of November will end up the warmest on record in #Albuquerque, going back to 1892.
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
November 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
With the first nine days of November in the books, and the unseasonably warm days ahead, the first two weeks of November will end up the warmest on record in #Albuquerque, going back to 1892.
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The first week of November was the warmest on record in #Albuquerque by a big margin.
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
November 7, 2025 at 10:15 PM
The first week of November was the warmest on record in #Albuquerque by a big margin.
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
An *unprecedented* warm streak this late in the year in #Albuquerque!
The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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November 7, 2025 at 12:07 AM
An *unprecedented* warm streak this late in the year in #Albuquerque!
The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Climate change "doesn’t automatically mean all hurricanes will become powerful,” @bmcnoldy.bsky.social said. But it makes it more likely that an average storm will encounter factors that help it intensify.
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
Global Warming Made Hurricane Melissa More Damaging, Researchers Say
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Climate change "doesn’t automatically mean all hurricanes will become powerful,” @bmcnoldy.bsky.social said. But it makes it more likely that an average storm will encounter factors that help it intensify.
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
The incredible late-season heat in #Albuquerque continues!
The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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November 6, 2025 at 12:12 AM
The incredible late-season heat in #Albuquerque continues!
The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Here is this year's closest full moon setting above our house... taken just one hour before it's technically 100% full (which is at 6:19am MST), but still above the horizon.
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Here is this year's closest full moon setting above our house... taken just one hour before it's technically 100% full (which is at 6:19am MST), but still above the horizon.
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
My attempt at photos (from my phone) of this year's largest, closest, and brightest full moon.
#supermoon
#supermoon
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 AM
My attempt at photos (from my phone) of this year's largest, closest, and brightest full moon.
#supermoon
#supermoon
A few Fall shots of the Rio Grande and Sandias from my neighborhood in Bernalillo...
November 4, 2025 at 12:21 PM
A few Fall shots of the Rio Grande and Sandias from my neighborhood in Bernalillo...
Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.
This Hurricane Season, Two Forecast Models Stand Out, but for Very Different Reasons
Google’s newest DeepMind hurricane model was the star of the 2025 hurricane season while America’s flagship weather model stumbled to new lows
michaelrlowry.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.
This "weathergami" plot for #Albuquerque is interesting. The plot shows the historical frequency of daily high and low temperature combinations. What's curious is the peak with ~90°F highs and ~63°F lows... that is the most common type of day here apparently.
November 3, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This "weathergami" plot for #Albuquerque is interesting. The plot shows the historical frequency of daily high and low temperature combinations. What's curious is the peak with ~90°F highs and ~63°F lows... that is the most common type of day here apparently.
The average water level measured at Virginia Key (near #Miami) set a new monthly record high in October, which is also the new *all-time* record high month.
I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago.
🤯🌊🧪
I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago.
🤯🌊🧪
November 2, 2025 at 1:12 PM
The average water level measured at Virginia Key (near #Miami) set a new monthly record high in October, which is also the new *all-time* record high month.
I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago.
🤯🌊🧪
I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago.
🤯🌊🧪
Standard Time begins tonight... huzzah!! ☀️🥰☀️
November 2, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Standard Time begins tonight... huzzah!! ☀️🥰☀️
Quick run of my parametric wind swath model on a small portion of Melissa's track. All storm parameters (track, intensity, size) come from the working "best-track", and I simply reduce wind speeds over land by a uniform 30%.
Not perfect, but it's something.
Not perfect, but it's something.
October 31, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Quick run of my parametric wind swath model on a small portion of Melissa's track. All storm parameters (track, intensity, size) come from the working "best-track", and I simply reduce wind speeds over land by a uniform 30%.
Not perfect, but it's something.
Not perfect, but it's something.
With one month to go in the hurricane season, here's a track map showing the activity so far: 13 named storms, including an extraordinary *3* Category 5 hurricanes.
October 31, 2025 at 9:55 PM
With one month to go in the hurricane season, here's a track map showing the activity so far: 13 named storms, including an extraordinary *3* Category 5 hurricanes.
Slow-moving Hurricane #Melissa managed to cool the extremely-anomalously-warm central Caribbean Sea down to right around average for the date. Instead of a "cold wake", would that be an "average wake"? 😉
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October 31, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Slow-moving Hurricane #Melissa managed to cool the extremely-anomalously-warm central Caribbean Sea down to right around average for the date. Instead of a "cold wake", would that be an "average wake"? 😉
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The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea is VERY warm for this time of year.
This could become relevant because the western Caribbean is climatologically a key spot to watch for development in November (November Caribbean hurricanes: bit.ly/4oB9Kjz).
This could become relevant because the western Caribbean is climatologically a key spot to watch for development in November (November Caribbean hurricanes: bit.ly/4oB9Kjz).
October 31, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea is VERY warm for this time of year.
This could become relevant because the western Caribbean is climatologically a key spot to watch for development in November (November Caribbean hurricanes: bit.ly/4oB9Kjz).
This could become relevant because the western Caribbean is climatologically a key spot to watch for development in November (November Caribbean hurricanes: bit.ly/4oB9Kjz).
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
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October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
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Reposted by Brian McNoldy
NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.
Volunteers Step In to Help Understaffed NOAA Track Hurricane Melissa
www.nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:45 AM
NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.
A drink for the eve of Oíche Shamhna: a blueberry Cosmopolitan.
October 31, 2025 at 12:09 AM
A drink for the eve of Oíche Shamhna: a blueberry Cosmopolitan.
#Melissa is approaching #Bermuda this evening... their radar is unfortunately not working, but they are providing a proxy (NOAA's hydroestimator). So, you can keep an eye on Melissa's eye (or what's left of it) as it cruises by tonight.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
October 30, 2025 at 9:58 PM
#Melissa is approaching #Bermuda this evening... their radar is unfortunately not working, but they are providing a proxy (NOAA's hydroestimator). So, you can keep an eye on Melissa's eye (or what's left of it) as it cruises by tonight.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
Anyone remember what #Melissa looked like 17 days ago?? A little seedling leaving Africa on October 13: bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/lore...
October 30, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Anyone remember what #Melissa looked like 17 days ago?? A little seedling leaving Africa on October 13: bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/lore...
The ratio of major hurricanes to named storms is an interesting one... a kind of "quality-over-quantity" index. Here is what that percentage looks like over the past fifty years, and note the average is 21%.
More at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...
More at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...
October 30, 2025 at 2:20 PM
The ratio of major hurricanes to named storms is an interesting one... a kind of "quality-over-quantity" index. Here is what that percentage looks like over the past fifty years, and note the average is 21%.
More at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...
More at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...