Michael Lowry
@michaelrlowry.bsky.social
Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at Miami's WPLG-TV Local 10 News. Posts my own.
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
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Michael Lowry
@michaelrlowry.bsky.social
· May 31
Opinion | How Far Can We Degrade Our Hurricane Forecasting Before People End Up Dead?
www.nytimes.com
It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but yesterday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes.com I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead?
Reposted by Michael Lowry
According to HURDAT2 (since 1949 but more reliable since the 1970s), only TWO tropical cyclones have formed between 180° and North America in January.
Both Ekeka (1992) and Pali (2016) formed in the central Pacific.
If a TC develops near Mexico this month, there is no match in the modern record.
Both Ekeka (1992) and Pali (2016) formed in the central Pacific.
If a TC develops near Mexico this month, there is no match in the modern record.
It was easy to be skeptical when only the GFS showed this, but with other global models now on board with a potential tropical cyclone in the East Pacific in **January** of all months… I’d be impressed if this comes to fruition
January 14, 2026 at 2:30 PM
According to HURDAT2 (since 1949 but more reliable since the 1970s), only TWO tropical cyclones have formed between 180° and North America in January.
Both Ekeka (1992) and Pali (2016) formed in the central Pacific.
If a TC develops near Mexico this month, there is no match in the modern record.
Both Ekeka (1992) and Pali (2016) formed in the central Pacific.
If a TC develops near Mexico this month, there is no match in the modern record.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
After the US admin cancelled the $B Climate + Weather Disaster dataset, @climatecentral.org hired the scientists who ran it and set it back up.
Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes.
More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...
Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes.
More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...
January 8, 2026 at 5:33 PM
After the US admin cancelled the $B Climate + Weather Disaster dataset, @climatecentral.org hired the scientists who ran it and set it back up.
Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes.
More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...
Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes.
More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...
Reposted by Michael Lowry
The 2025 L.A. wildfires rank as the 10th-costliest weather disaster in U.S. (and world) history, using inflation-adjusted data from 1980-2025 from Climate Central, based on foundational work from NOAA.
January 8, 2026 at 9:23 PM
The 2025 L.A. wildfires rank as the 10th-costliest weather disaster in U.S. (and world) history, using inflation-adjusted data from 1980-2025 from Climate Central, based on foundational work from NOAA.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Reminder: Yes, large-scale events that cause at least $1 billion in direct economic impacts drive the bulk of annual US catastrophe losses. But the non-billion-dollar events still drive considerable aggregate costs.
Since 2010, non-billion-dollar events account for 24% of US losses ($544 billion).
Since 2010, non-billion-dollar events account for 24% of US losses ($544 billion).
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Reminder: Yes, large-scale events that cause at least $1 billion in direct economic impacts drive the bulk of annual US catastrophe losses. But the non-billion-dollar events still drive considerable aggregate costs.
Since 2010, non-billion-dollar events account for 24% of US losses ($544 billion).
Since 2010, non-billion-dollar events account for 24% of US losses ($544 billion).
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Hey! Florida didn't really lose the title of "Lightning Capital of the United States".
That headline comes from a lightning network that has previously said Maryland and New Jersey were more lightning prone than Florida.
NLDN says Florida is the lightning capital since at least 2019.
That headline comes from a lightning network that has previously said Maryland and New Jersey were more lightning prone than Florida.
NLDN says Florida is the lightning capital since at least 2019.
January 6, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Hey! Florida didn't really lose the title of "Lightning Capital of the United States".
That headline comes from a lightning network that has previously said Maryland and New Jersey were more lightning prone than Florida.
NLDN says Florida is the lightning capital since at least 2019.
That headline comes from a lightning network that has previously said Maryland and New Jersey were more lightning prone than Florida.
NLDN says Florida is the lightning capital since at least 2019.
FEMA "CORE" positions are central to FEMA's mission and keep the agency nimble (and functioning) in times of disaster. Past administrators on both sides of the aisle have aimed to strengthen and expand these positions. Don't see how federal disaster response and recovery continues after slashing 41%
January 6, 2026 at 2:26 AM
FEMA "CORE" positions are central to FEMA's mission and keep the agency nimble (and functioning) in times of disaster. Past administrators on both sides of the aisle have aimed to strengthen and expand these positions. Don't see how federal disaster response and recovery continues after slashing 41%
Reposted by Michael Lowry
ICYMI: House released FY26 budget directive doc for science agencies. Rejects elimination of NOAA Research, but moves key weather research programs including phased array radar to NWS. Also directs NOAA to report on the need for a new “extreme weather” federal R&D center. tinyurl.com/5hyvs9fj
Breaking News: House FY2026 science budget explanatory statement released
Now that the holidays are in the rear view mirror, Congress is working again on the budget for those agencies and departments that still do not have a Fiscal Year 2026 budget.
tinyurl.com
January 6, 2026 at 1:28 AM
ICYMI: House released FY26 budget directive doc for science agencies. Rejects elimination of NOAA Research, but moves key weather research programs including phased array radar to NWS. Also directs NOAA to report on the need for a new “extreme weather” federal R&D center. tinyurl.com/5hyvs9fj
Reposted by Michael Lowry
🚨🚨🚨 2025 finished in the top 10 for warmest year on record in the Contiguous U.S. (1895-present). For most of the areas from the Rocky Mountains westward, it was a top 5 warmest year. No areas had a historically cool year.
January 1, 2026 at 5:48 PM
🚨🚨🚨 2025 finished in the top 10 for warmest year on record in the Contiguous U.S. (1895-present). For most of the areas from the Rocky Mountains westward, it was a top 5 warmest year. No areas had a historically cool year.
So great to see the inimitable @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and family today...and in short sleeves! My kind of weather for late December in the South :) Nice to catch up outdoors before Old Man Winter returns tomorrow.
A meeting of the meteorologists! Great to meet up with @michaelrlowry.bsky.social and Kait Parker and kids, with my family, at the Atlanta Zoo today. Crazy record warm temps in the 70s for the 5th straight day for our vacation here.
December 28, 2025 at 7:57 PM
So great to see the inimitable @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and family today...and in short sleeves! My kind of weather for late December in the South :) Nice to catch up outdoors before Old Man Winter returns tomorrow.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
The Trump administration says it will dismantle a key climate-science center, while salvaging its forecasting capabilities. “Today, predicting the weather without considering the climate would be meteorological malpractice," Michelle Nijhuis argues.
The U.S. Is on the Verge of Meteorological Malpractice
The Trump administration says it will dismantle a premier climate center, while somehow keeping weather forecasting intact.
bit.ly
December 18, 2025 at 11:20 PM
The Trump administration says it will dismantle a key climate-science center, while salvaging its forecasting capabilities. “Today, predicting the weather without considering the climate would be meteorological malpractice," Michelle Nijhuis argues.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
December 18, 2025 at 8:47 PM
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
Reposted by Michael Lowry
@bhensonweather.bsky.social spent most of his career working at NCAR. He writes, "Working at NCAR and UCAR was an enormous privilege and one of the great joys of my life. I gained a humbling appreciation for the intricacy of the atmosphere."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/12/trum...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/12/trum...
Trump administration announces plans to 'break up' the National Center for Atmospheric Research » Yale Climate Connections
The center is one of the world’s premier institutions for studying the atmosphere. Its work has saved countless lives.
yaleclimateconnections.org
December 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
@bhensonweather.bsky.social spent most of his career working at NCAR. He writes, "Working at NCAR and UCAR was an enormous privilege and one of the great joys of my life. I gained a humbling appreciation for the intricacy of the atmosphere."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/12/trum...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/12/trum...
Reposted by Michael Lowry
In case you want to share with your networks, this is a good article by the NYT on the broad scope of work done by NCAR and some of the key discoveries (e.g., microbursts and aviation accidents).
The Trump administration said it will be dismantling the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, one of the world’s leading Earth science research institutions.
National Center for Atmospheric Research to Be Dismantled, Trump Administration Says
Russell Vought, the White House budget director, called the laboratory a source of “climate alarmism.”
nyti.ms
December 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
In case you want to share with your networks, this is a good article by the NYT on the broad scope of work done by NCAR and some of the key discoveries (e.g., microbursts and aviation accidents).
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Quite a contrast...
Warmest first half of December on record in Pacific NW, including Seattle and Portland.
Among top 10 coldest in the Midwest and parts of the East, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh.
(Data: SERCC)
Warmest first half of December on record in Pacific NW, including Seattle and Portland.
Among top 10 coldest in the Midwest and parts of the East, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh.
(Data: SERCC)
December 17, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Quite a contrast...
Warmest first half of December on record in Pacific NW, including Seattle and Portland.
Among top 10 coldest in the Midwest and parts of the East, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh.
(Data: SERCC)
Warmest first half of December on record in Pacific NW, including Seattle and Portland.
Among top 10 coldest in the Midwest and parts of the East, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh.
(Data: SERCC)
Reposted by Michael Lowry
NCAR is quite literally our global mothership.
Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources.
Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.
Unbelievable.
Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources.
Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.
Unbelievable.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
www.usatoday.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:59 AM
NCAR is quite literally our global mothership.
Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources.
Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.
Unbelievable.
Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources.
Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.
Unbelievable.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 2:50 AM
It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Unbelievable. This would be a terrible blow to American science, writ large. It would decimate not only climate research, but also the kind of weather, wildfire, and disaster research that has underpinned half a century of progress in prediction, early warning, and increased resilience.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Unbelievable. This would be a terrible blow to American science, writ large. It would decimate not only climate research, but also the kind of weather, wildfire, and disaster research that has underpinned half a century of progress in prediction, early warning, and increased resilience.
NCAR is crucial to cutting-edge meteorology and improvements in weather forecasting. As others have noted, it's far, far bigger than a "climate" research lab. This is self-sabotage by a wildly ignorant and malicious administration cutting off their nose to spite their face. Find a better scapegoat.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 2:50 AM
NCAR is crucial to cutting-edge meteorology and improvements in weather forecasting. As others have noted, it's far, far bigger than a "climate" research lab. This is self-sabotage by a wildly ignorant and malicious administration cutting off their nose to spite their face. Find a better scapegoat.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
WTAF?!
Also, for the love of God, can we not refer to NCAR As a “climate lab?” It does a hell of a lot more than just climate.
Also, for the love of God, can we not refer to NCAR As a “climate lab?” It does a hell of a lot more than just climate.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 1:44 AM
WTAF?!
Also, for the love of God, can we not refer to NCAR As a “climate lab?” It does a hell of a lot more than just climate.
Also, for the love of God, can we not refer to NCAR As a “climate lab?” It does a hell of a lot more than just climate.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
These people are nuts. NCAR developed the GPS dropsonde, which revolutionized the understanding of TC structure, improved forecasts, and validated remote sensing platforms, as documented in over 400 peer-reviewed publications in the last 25 years. And that’s just one of NCAR’s countless advances.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 2:09 AM
These people are nuts. NCAR developed the GPS dropsonde, which revolutionized the understanding of TC structure, improved forecasts, and validated remote sensing platforms, as documented in over 400 peer-reviewed publications in the last 25 years. And that’s just one of NCAR’s countless advances.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
It’s been observed that tropical cyclones have been migrating poleward in recent years, and climate change was suspected as a cause. But this study found SST patterns caused it, “and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends.”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability - Nature Geoscience
A tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates tropical cyclone latitudes and largely determined their poleward migration during the period 1980–2024, according t...
www.nature.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:27 PM
It’s been observed that tropical cyclones have been migrating poleward in recent years, and climate change was suspected as a cause. But this study found SST patterns caused it, “and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends.”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Just in from NOAA, 7 states had their record warmest "meteorological fall" dating to 1895.
It was also America's third warmest "fall" in 131 years, just behind 2024 and 2016.
It was also America's third warmest "fall" in 131 years, just behind 2024 and 2016.
December 8, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Just in from NOAA, 7 states had their record warmest "meteorological fall" dating to 1895.
It was also America's third warmest "fall" in 131 years, just behind 2024 and 2016.
It was also America's third warmest "fall" in 131 years, just behind 2024 and 2016.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
BREAKING: A tsunami as high as 10 feet could hit Japan's northeastern coast after an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.6 occurred offshore, the Japan Meteorological Agency said reut.rs/44iNwL0
December 8, 2025 at 2:49 PM
BREAKING: A tsunami as high as 10 feet could hit Japan's northeastern coast after an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.6 occurred offshore, the Japan Meteorological Agency said reut.rs/44iNwL0
Reposted by Michael Lowry
This week marked the end of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It was comprised of...
13 named storms
5 hurricanes
4 major hurricane
13 named storms
5 hurricanes
4 major hurricane
December 5, 2025 at 9:22 PM
This week marked the end of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It was comprised of...
13 named storms
5 hurricanes
4 major hurricane
13 named storms
5 hurricanes
4 major hurricane