Michael Lowry
@michaelrlowry.bsky.social
Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at Miami's WPLG-TV Local 10 News. Posts my own.
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
Realizing in the code I wrote last night, I printed out the end month of the system, rather than the month in which the system was a Category 5. Probably shouldn't be coding after being on TV for 12 consecutive hours! Here's the corrected version (records unchanged)
October 29, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Realizing in the code I wrote last night, I printed out the end month of the system, rather than the month in which the system was a Category 5. Probably shouldn't be coding after being on TV for 12 consecutive hours! Here's the corrected version (records unchanged)
Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.
October 29, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.
With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.
October 28, 2025 at 2:32 PM
With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.
Melissa's pressure now down to 896 mb, making it the 5th most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure). With winds now at 180 mph, Melissa will be the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane since Dorian in 2019. A worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica.
October 28, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Melissa's pressure now down to 896 mb, making it the 5th most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure). With winds now at 180 mph, Melissa will be the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane since Dorian in 2019. A worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica.
A few important notes: Air Force Hurricane Hunters flying Hurricane Melissa right now continue to report a small but closed eye and no reports as of yet of concentric eyewalls. Their wind data and a recent microwave pass also don't support a secondary eyewall so far.
October 26, 2025 at 7:47 PM
A few important notes: Air Force Hurricane Hunters flying Hurricane Melissa right now continue to report a small but closed eye and no reports as of yet of concentric eyewalls. Their wind data and a recent microwave pass also don't support a secondary eyewall so far.
If Melissa's proven anything today, it's how difficult it is to predict intensity fluctuations when hurricanes reach their upper-echelon. Pressures falling with no solid evidence (yet) of an ERC. Maybe an eyewall merger (?) but either way Melissa largely unaffected. (radar via @bmcnoldy.bsky.social)
October 26, 2025 at 7:47 PM
If Melissa's proven anything today, it's how difficult it is to predict intensity fluctuations when hurricanes reach their upper-echelon. Pressures falling with no solid evidence (yet) of an ERC. Maybe an eyewall merger (?) but either way Melissa largely unaffected. (radar via @bmcnoldy.bsky.social)
The latest pass through Melissa's eye just now (from north to southeast) by Air Force Hurricane Hunters measuring the lowest pressures and highest winds of any mission into Melissa yet. Pressures down to 942 mb. Still on a strengthening trend.
October 26, 2025 at 7:47 PM
The latest pass through Melissa's eye just now (from north to southeast) by Air Force Hurricane Hunters measuring the lowest pressures and highest winds of any mission into Melissa yet. Pressures down to 942 mb. Still on a strengthening trend.
Hurricane Melissa's catastrophic hazards in Jamaica 👇
🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph
⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides
🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves
🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph
⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides
🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves
October 25, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Hurricane Melissa's catastrophic hazards in Jamaica 👇
🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph
⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides
🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves
🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph
⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides
🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves
Only 5 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes on record have come within 50 miles of Jamaica, all from the east. Only one – Gilbert in 1988 – made landfall. Melissa's slow approach from the south raises the risk of severe coastal storm surge into Jamaica's southern bays and harbors.
October 24, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Only 5 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes on record have come within 50 miles of Jamaica, all from the east. Only one – Gilbert in 1988 – made landfall. Melissa's slow approach from the south raises the risk of severe coastal storm surge into Jamaica's southern bays and harbors.
Melissa definitely doing the thing this afternoon. Its center is squarely tucked under westward-building deep convection, indicating abating shear. Seeing what appears to be glimpses of a formative eyewall too. Upper-level anticyclone should take shape with sustained convection.
October 24, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Melissa definitely doing the thing this afternoon. Its center is squarely tucked under westward-building deep convection, indicating abating shear. Seeing what appears to be glimpses of a formative eyewall too. Upper-level anticyclone should take shape with sustained convection.
Jerry almost looking like a strong tropical wave than a bona fide tropical storm at the moment – very weak circulation to the southwest but impressive winds to the northeast. Its fast movement no doubt playing into this deformity. Should start slowing later tomorrow and Friday.
October 8, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Jerry almost looking like a strong tropical wave than a bona fide tropical storm at the moment – very weak circulation to the southwest but impressive winds to the northeast. Its fast movement no doubt playing into this deformity. Should start slowing later tomorrow and Friday.
Impressed to see pressures tumbling into the 960s this morning inside Imelda from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter's first pass through its core. Surprised winds on the back side aren't higher yet but imagine they'll catch up today to the pressure falls and faster forward speed.
October 1, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Impressed to see pressures tumbling into the 960s this morning inside Imelda from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter's first pass through its core. Surprised winds on the back side aren't higher yet but imagine they'll catch up today to the pressure falls and faster forward speed.
How about *only* hurricane pairings in the Atlantic and for the entire period of record (since 1851). What are the closest two hurricanes have ever been recorded? Humberto and Imelda right at the top. The nearest reliable contender was Easy and Fox back in 1951.
September 30, 2025 at 11:17 PM
How about *only* hurricane pairings in the Atlantic and for the entire period of record (since 1851). What are the closest two hurricanes have ever been recorded? Humberto and Imelda right at the top. The nearest reliable contender was Easy and Fox back in 1951.
Imelda and Humberto are churning only about 580 miles from each other tonight. Only 9 other named storms have ever come as close or closer in the Atlantic in the satellite era (since 1966). The last occurrence was Philippe and Rina around this time in 2023.
September 29, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Imelda and Humberto are churning only about 580 miles from each other tonight. Only 9 other named storms have ever come as close or closer in the Atlantic in the satellite era (since 1966). The last occurrence was Philippe and Rina around this time in 2023.
Version with corrected title:
September 29, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Version with corrected title:
I also wrote about how unusual it is to have all hurricanes so far reach Category 4 or 5 strength. Through today, that's the first time it's happened in the satellite record. The number of total hurricanes remains low relative to the average, though, which certainly contributes.
September 29, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I also wrote about how unusual it is to have all hurricanes so far reach Category 4 or 5 strength. Through today, that's the first time it's happened in the satellite record. The number of total hurricanes remains low relative to the average, though, which certainly contributes.
Surprised to see no core yet and such a flat wind profile from Hurricane Hunters in Imelda this morning based on the convective blowup over its center on satellite. Goes to show you the value added by getting a look under the hood from the airplanes. Slow organization for now.
September 29, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Surprised to see no core yet and such a flat wind profile from Hurricane Hunters in Imelda this morning based on the convective blowup over its center on satellite. Goes to show you the value added by getting a look under the hood from the airplanes. Slow organization for now.
Although its wind field is still weak and spread out, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (future Imelda) has enough of a mid-level circulation to get a decent "fix" from NOAA Hurricane Hunters just now. Likely on the cusp of a Tropical Depression. We'll see what NHC decides at 11 AM.
September 27, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Although its wind field is still weak and spread out, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (future Imelda) has enough of a mid-level circulation to get a decent "fix" from NOAA Hurricane Hunters just now. Likely on the cusp of a Tropical Depression. We'll see what NHC decides at 11 AM.
Hurricanes on visible at sunset never disappoint. Humberto firing on all cylinders tonight as a major. Already seeing signs of mesovortices in its eye, with an explosive convective burst in its southern eyewall. Humberto swinging for the fences, thankfully safely over open water.
September 26, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Hurricanes on visible at sunset never disappoint. Humberto firing on all cylinders tonight as a major. Already seeing signs of mesovortices in its eye, with an explosive convective burst in its southern eyewall. Humberto swinging for the fences, thankfully safely over open water.
This is not the look of a system that wants to go gentle into that good night. Interests in the Bahamas and southeast U.S. should monitor the forecasts closely over the coming days.
September 25, 2025 at 5:15 PM
This is not the look of a system that wants to go gentle into that good night. Interests in the Bahamas and southeast U.S. should monitor the forecasts closely over the coming days.
Remarkable to see what hurricanes can do when they traverse exceptionally warm water. Gabrielle rapidly strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane today right as it passed over record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year.
September 23, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Remarkable to see what hurricanes can do when they traverse exceptionally warm water. Gabrielle rapidly strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane today right as it passed over record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year.
Credit to the AI models for catching the signal first on the leading tropical wave that we discussed Friday (yellow outline added at 2 PM ET Sunday). Guidance has shifted east since. We'll see what comes of it, but a big jet stream dip next weekend favors a turn near the Bahamas.
September 21, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Credit to the AI models for catching the signal first on the leading tropical wave that we discussed Friday (yellow outline added at 2 PM ET Sunday). Guidance has shifted east since. We'll see what comes of it, but a big jet stream dip next weekend favors a turn near the Bahamas.
Whatever dry air/stability issues have been plaguing the deeper Atlantic, from a South Florida standpoint I'm just glad nothing's snuck into the southwest Atlantic or northwestern Caribbean so far. Waters impressively warm in the lanes storms often take into South Florida.
September 17, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Whatever dry air/stability issues have been plaguing the deeper Atlantic, from a South Florida standpoint I'm just glad nothing's snuck into the southwest Atlantic or northwestern Caribbean so far. Waters impressively warm in the lanes storms often take into South Florida.
Interesting to see how much stronger and farther south and west the Azores (subtropical) high has been over the past two weeks compared to the 30-year climatology and the same period in other recent seasons
September 12, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Interesting to see how much stronger and farther south and west the Azores (subtropical) high has been over the past two weeks compared to the 30-year climatology and the same period in other recent seasons
While unlikely the primary culprit for our anemic September start, a pumped up Azores high the past few weeks is likely helping to sweep much drier air from higher latitudes into the deep tropics and Caribbean. This has also led to some anomalous cooling of the eastern MDR.
September 9, 2025 at 4:44 PM
While unlikely the primary culprit for our anemic September start, a pumped up Azores high the past few weeks is likely helping to sweep much drier air from higher latitudes into the deep tropics and Caribbean. This has also led to some anomalous cooling of the eastern MDR.