Melissa's pressure now down to 896 mb, making it the 5th most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure). With winds now at 180 mph, Melissa will be the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane since Dorian in 2019. A worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica.

If Melissa's proven anything today, it's how difficult it is to predict intensity fluctuations when hurricanes reach their upper-echelon. Pressures falling with no solid evidence (yet) of an ERC. Maybe an eyewall merger (?) but either way Melissa largely unaffected. (radar via @bmcnoldy.bsky.social)

Hurricane Melissa's catastrophic hazards in Jamaica 👇
🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph
⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides
🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves

Melissa definitely doing the thing this afternoon. Its center is squarely tucked under westward-building deep convection, indicating abating shear. Seeing what appears to be glimpses of a formative eyewall too. Upper-level anticyclone should take shape with sustained convection.

Hurricanes on visible at sunset never disappoint. Humberto firing on all cylinders tonight as a major. Already seeing signs of mesovortices in its eye, with an explosive convective burst in its southern eyewall. Humberto swinging for the fences, thankfully safely over open water.

This is not the look of a system that wants to go gentle into that good night. Interests in the Bahamas and southeast U.S. should monitor the forecasts closely over the coming days.

Interesting to see how much stronger and farther south and west the Azores (subtropical) high has been over the past two weeks compared to the 30-year climatology and the same period in other recent seasons