Stunning!

Big thank you to @franklinjamesl.bsky.social and @bmcnoldy.bsky.social for sharing their preliminary verification numbers for the season so far

And here is the same, but for all 13 storms in the entire season so far. "OFCL" is the NHC's forecast, and "GDMI" is the Google #DeepMind ensemble mean and is the leading model for both track and intensity this season.
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I've been on too many flights lately where virtually all window seat passengers close their shades and leave them closed the duration of the flight. You're missing the awe of the skies! Also who wants to feel like they're riding on a cargo plane :)

We certainly don't need any more retired feds volunteering their time so don't hesitate to tell me to take a hike :)

Thanks for posting these, James. How do the GFS errors alone stack up to recent seasons? Is it that the other models have improved that much or the GFS was just that much worse? Anecdotally it's felt unusable at times this season, and your numbers certainly validate that!