James Franklin
@franklinjamesl.bsky.social
Former Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS (retired). Mostly weather posts, with occasional forays into grammar and usage, word play, and south Florida sports.
Same old story with the Canes. Now let’s see if the Panthers can salvage something of this so-far crappy day.
November 1, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Same old story with the Canes. Now let’s see if the Panthers can salvage something of this so-far crappy day.
They keep trying that play. I don’t think it works as well as they think it works. (Done in Princess Bride accent.)
November 1, 2025 at 7:25 PM
They keep trying that play. I don’t think it works as well as they think it works. (Done in Princess Bride accent.)
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
Haven’t watched the Dolphins in weeks. Why did I decide to put myself through this again tonight?
October 31, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Haven’t watched the Dolphins in weeks. Why did I decide to put myself through this again tonight?
The sequence of NHC forecasts verifying at 28/18Z, roughly the time of landfall, is quite remarkable given the spread of the guidance and the track turns involved. Five days worth of OFCLs consistently focused on the western ⅔ of Jamaica, and with remarkable steadiness in timing. Nicely done NHC!
October 30, 2025 at 12:47 AM
The sequence of NHC forecasts verifying at 28/18Z, roughly the time of landfall, is quite remarkable given the spread of the guidance and the track turns involved. Five days worth of OFCLs consistently focused on the western ⅔ of Jamaica, and with remarkable steadiness in timing. Nicely done NHC!
Nice piece from Nature on the GDM AI model and, sadly, a missed opportunity for research on what made Melissa special due to the government shutdown.
We wrote about the Google DeepMind AI forecast model that has been doing quite well in predicting Atlantic #hurricane tracks & intensities this year. Thanks @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @franklinjamesl.bsky.social for insights, @NOAA for working without pay:
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
🧪🌀
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
🧪🌀
This ‘impressive’ AI model predicted Hurricane Melissa’s perilous growth
An artificial-intelligence tool is helping to crack the challenge of forecasting hurricane intensity.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Nice piece from Nature on the GDM AI model and, sadly, a missed opportunity for research on what made Melissa special due to the government shutdown.
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
October 29, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
Not surprised by the we-need-a-cat-6 chatter. To me, adding a C6 is a marketing gimmick that would be counterproductive in helping people respond to approaching hurricane winds. But it does give me an excuse to link to something I previously posted about scales:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Please, No New Hurricane Scales
The Saffir-Simpson Scale has limitations. A new scale would have even more.
substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Not surprised by the we-need-a-cat-6 chatter. To me, adding a C6 is a marketing gimmick that would be counterproductive in helping people respond to approaching hurricane winds. But it does give me an excuse to link to something I previously posted about scales:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Idle thought having nothing to do with Melissa while listening to the in-arena host at the Panthers game…is “Coke Zero Sugar” Coke Zero with sugar, or a Coke with zero sugar? A hyphen in the brand name sure would help.
October 28, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Idle thought having nothing to do with Melissa while listening to the in-arena host at the Panthers game…is “Coke Zero Sugar” Coke Zero with sugar, or a Coke with zero sugar? A hyphen in the brand name sure would help.
Differences between satellite and recon tend to put a smile on this old flyer’s face. Although more often than not, the winds catch up to the satellite signature.
October 27, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Differences between satellite and recon tend to put a smile on this old flyer’s face. Although more often than not, the winds catch up to the satellite signature.
How can someone recruit so well and manage a game so poorly?
October 25, 2025 at 11:32 PM
How can someone recruit so well and manage a game so poorly?
Google DeepMind (GDMI) has done real well this year. When NHC today mentioned the GDM ensembles showing most reaching C5 intensity, I was curious how GDMI was doing for RI. Using the HFIP RI metric, turns out only so-so. HMON, HCCA, and OFCL are the standouts for RI so far. Sample still small.
October 25, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Google DeepMind (GDMI) has done real well this year. When NHC today mentioned the GDM ensembles showing most reaching C5 intensity, I was curious how GDMI was doing for RI. Using the HFIP RI metric, turns out only so-so. HMON, HCCA, and OFCL are the standouts for RI so far. Sample still small.
To paraphrase Gary Bettman, while it may be difficult to give Legacy ticket holders a Stanley Cup ring once, to do it twice in a row is almost impossible. Grateful that the Panthers really know how to take care of their most loyal fans. (But they still desperately need help at C4 and RD3.)
October 24, 2025 at 5:07 PM
To paraphrase Gary Bettman, while it may be difficult to give Legacy ticket holders a Stanley Cup ring once, to do it twice in a row is almost impossible. Grateful that the Panthers really know how to take care of their most loyal fans. (But they still desperately need help at C4 and RD3.)
With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.
October 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.
I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.
October 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.
I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
M.I.T. Rejects a White House Offer for Special Funding Treatment
www.nytimes.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...
October 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...
While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.
October 3, 2025 at 11:14 PM
While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.
Really tired of hearing all the complaints about how I can’t win the big one.
September 28, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Really tired of hearing all the complaints about how I can’t win the big one.
Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.
September 26, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.
While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.
September 26, 2025 at 6:42 PM
While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.
I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.
We have been lucky to avoid a major hurricane landfall so far this season - but as the tropics heat up and a gov't shutdown looms, I wanted to take a deep dive into where we stand with federal staffing and budget. TLDR: it’s not great. More: tinyurl.com/bdedmty4
BalancedWx Special: Federal staffing and budget updates as possible shutdown looms
Staffing levels and morale still concerning as head into the fall
tinyurl.com
September 24, 2025 at 11:05 PM
I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.
Got my flu and Covid vaccines this morning. The primary side effect was nearly having a heart attack when I took my shirt off and looked in the mirror from across the room. CVS really really shouldn’t use red band-aids.
September 17, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Got my flu and Covid vaccines this morning. The primary side effect was nearly having a heart attack when I took my shirt off and looked in the mirror from across the room. CVS really really shouldn’t use red band-aids.
The Dolphins used to make me cry. Now they just make me roll my eyes.
September 14, 2025 at 8:10 PM
The Dolphins used to make me cry. Now they just make me roll my eyes.
It's happened again - another proposal for a new hurricane scale. I have some thoughts...
franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...
franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...
Please, No New Hurricane Scales
The Saffir-Simpson Scale has limitations. A new scale would have even more.
franklinjamesl.substack.com
September 13, 2025 at 6:32 PM
It's happened again - another proposal for a new hurricane scale. I have some thoughts...
franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...
franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...