Robert Rohde
@rarohde.bsky.social
Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Pinned
Robert Rohde
@rarohde.bsky.social
· Nov 22
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations - Nature
Independent statistical reconstructions of the global mean surface temperature from either ocean or land data show that existing estimates of early-twentieth-century ocean surface temperatures are too...
www.nature.com
A new paper led by Sebastian Sippel just appeared in Nature arguing that ocean temperature measurements in the early 20th century have a cold bias.
It's a fun story illustrating the process of scientific discovery, so let me talk about it a bit. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
It's a fun story illustrating the process of scientific discovery, so let me talk about it a bit. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Robert Rohde
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
essd.copernicus.org
January 28, 2026 at 8:48 AM
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
It is wild to me that in 2025 the question of how much does solar output change during a solar cycle still comes with a ~20% measurement uncertainty.
January 22, 2026 at 10:32 AM
It is wild to me that in 2025 the question of how much does solar output change during a solar cycle still comes with a ~20% measurement uncertainty.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
We're one year in. The speed, scope and severity of what's happening to American science is beyond anything we've seen before. The reliability of the Federal science and technology enterprise and the people within it, has been shattered. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
‘Shattered’: US scientists speak out about how Trump policies disrupted their careers
Researchers lay bare the human toll of lay-offs, funding cuts and attacks on science one year after the president’s return to the White House.
www.nature.com
January 20, 2026 at 12:42 PM
We're one year in. The speed, scope and severity of what's happening to American science is beyond anything we've seen before. The reliability of the Federal science and technology enterprise and the people within it, has been shattered. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
For 50 years, global warming had a very consistent trend (+0.19 °C/decade) with a boring, predictable range of natural variations around it.
During the last three years, we've broken out above that range, suggesting the pace of change has quickened.
During the last three years, we've broken out above that range, suggesting the pace of change has quickened.
January 20, 2026 at 9:50 AM
For 50 years, global warming had a very consistent trend (+0.19 °C/decade) with a boring, predictable range of natural variations around it.
During the last three years, we've broken out above that range, suggesting the pace of change has quickened.
During the last three years, we've broken out above that range, suggesting the pace of change has quickened.
While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well.
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
January 19, 2026 at 11:58 PM
While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well.
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
The US Government is literally saying that human lives have no value.
Under President Trump, the EPA will stop considering lives saved when setting pollution limits and instead calculate only the cost to businesses. It’s counter to the agency’s mission statement, which says has a core responsibility to protect human health and the environment. nyti.ms/3Loch27
January 12, 2026 at 10:42 PM
The US Government is literally saying that human lives have no value.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
📊 Berkeley Earth 2025 Annual Temp Report
Release: Jan 14 4am CET | Jan 13 10pm ET | 7pm PT
Embargoed Materials: Jan 13 (TBD)
Media Sign up: tinyurl.com/mrxuy5a2
Press briefing + Q&A will follow at 8am PST | 5pm CET on Jan 14.
Register: tinyurl.com/2hj6j8t3
Inquiries: 📩 media@berkeleyearth.org
Release: Jan 14 4am CET | Jan 13 10pm ET | 7pm PT
Embargoed Materials: Jan 13 (TBD)
Media Sign up: tinyurl.com/mrxuy5a2
Press briefing + Q&A will follow at 8am PST | 5pm CET on Jan 14.
Register: tinyurl.com/2hj6j8t3
Inquiries: 📩 media@berkeleyearth.org
January 6, 2026 at 9:00 PM
📊 Berkeley Earth 2025 Annual Temp Report
Release: Jan 14 4am CET | Jan 13 10pm ET | 7pm PT
Embargoed Materials: Jan 13 (TBD)
Media Sign up: tinyurl.com/mrxuy5a2
Press briefing + Q&A will follow at 8am PST | 5pm CET on Jan 14.
Register: tinyurl.com/2hj6j8t3
Inquiries: 📩 media@berkeleyearth.org
Release: Jan 14 4am CET | Jan 13 10pm ET | 7pm PT
Embargoed Materials: Jan 13 (TBD)
Media Sign up: tinyurl.com/mrxuy5a2
Press briefing + Q&A will follow at 8am PST | 5pm CET on Jan 14.
Register: tinyurl.com/2hj6j8t3
Inquiries: 📩 media@berkeleyearth.org
The USA has become the only UN member state to turn their back on the UNFCCC foundational climate change treaty and @ipcc.bsky.social.
This is a giant FU to international climate change research & action from the world's leading producer of oil and gas producer.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
This is a giant FU to international climate change research & action from the world's leading producer of oil and gas producer.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
January 8, 2026 at 12:02 PM
The USA has become the only UN member state to turn their back on the UNFCCC foundational climate change treaty and @ipcc.bsky.social.
This is a giant FU to international climate change research & action from the world's leading producer of oil and gas producer.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
This is a giant FU to international climate change research & action from the world's leading producer of oil and gas producer.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
You know a great way to drive up energy costs?
Have the government block energy projects that have already been under construction for years, forcing companies to take billion dollar losses while delivering no energy at all.
Have the government block energy projects that have already been under construction for years, forcing companies to take billion dollar losses while delivering no energy at all.
There will be litigation, but realistically this could well mark the end of any new offshore wind projects in the USA until Trump leaves office.
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Trump suspends all large offshore wind farms under construction, threatening thousands of jobs and cheaper energy | CNN
In the latest blow for the US offshore wind industry, the Trump administration announced Monday it is suspending the federal leases for all large offshore wind projects currently under construction, c...
www.cnn.com
December 23, 2025 at 11:21 AM
You know a great way to drive up energy costs?
Have the government block energy projects that have already been under construction for years, forcing companies to take billion dollar losses while delivering no energy at all.
Have the government block energy projects that have already been under construction for years, forcing companies to take billion dollar losses while delivering no energy at all.
There will be litigation, but realistically this could well mark the end of any new offshore wind projects in the USA until Trump leaves office.
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Trump suspends all large offshore wind farms under construction, threatening thousands of jobs and cheaper energy | CNN
In the latest blow for the US offshore wind industry, the Trump administration announced Monday it is suspending the federal leases for all large offshore wind projects currently under construction, c...
www.cnn.com
December 23, 2025 at 12:16 AM
There will be litigation, but realistically this could well mark the end of any new offshore wind projects in the USA until Trump leaves office.
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Multiple gigawatts of wind power at sites already under construction are likely to be abandoned.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/22/c...
Reposted by Robert Rohde
NOAA has started terminating grants to UCAR under the UCAR/NOAA Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program (CAMP).
December 21, 2025 at 2:31 AM
NOAA has started terminating grants to UCAR under the UCAR/NOAA Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program (CAMP).
Reposted by Robert Rohde
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
December 18, 2025 at 8:47 PM
A massive new report by over 100 scientists modeling the climate effects of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption finds "The record-high global surface temperatures in 2023/2024 were not due to the Hunga eruption": juser.fz-juelich.de/...
The big special report on the Hunga Tonga eruption is out:
juser.fz-juelich.de/record/10491...
After a couple years of arguing whether the net effect of aerosols+water vapor was warming or cooling, it includes this banger of a model ensemble that literally does cooling then warming.
juser.fz-juelich.de/record/10491...
After a couple years of arguing whether the net effect of aerosols+water vapor was warming or cooling, it includes this banger of a model ensemble that literally does cooling then warming.
December 19, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The big special report on the Hunga Tonga eruption is out:
juser.fz-juelich.de/record/10491...
After a couple years of arguing whether the net effect of aerosols+water vapor was warming or cooling, it includes this banger of a model ensemble that literally does cooling then warming.
juser.fz-juelich.de/record/10491...
After a couple years of arguing whether the net effect of aerosols+water vapor was warming or cooling, it includes this banger of a model ensemble that literally does cooling then warming.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
I know many of you who follow me don't work in climate science, but this is the biggest story in climate right now. Breaking up NCAR makes us all less safe and is another act of self-harm that will take decades to recover from.
Trump administration to dismantle key climate research center
Russell Vought, who directs the White House Office of Management and Budget, announced plans to split up the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, citing concerns about “clima...
wapo.st
December 17, 2025 at 4:17 PM
I know many of you who follow me don't work in climate science, but this is the biggest story in climate right now. Breaking up NCAR makes us all less safe and is another act of self-harm that will take decades to recover from.
The cost of grid-scale solar plus batteries has become so cheap that spreading solar power out over 24 hours is now cost-competive with building new natural gas plants in many cases.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
December 14, 2025 at 8:44 AM
The cost of grid-scale solar plus batteries has become so cheap that spreading solar power out over 24 hours is now cost-competive with building new natural gas plants in many cases.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
The EU enacted legislation to ban internal combustion engines in all new car sales starting in 2035.
Reportedly, this will get watered down. The total ban would be replaced with fleet-wide new car limits requiring a 90% reduction in carbon emissions.
www.euractiv.com/news/von-der...
Reportedly, this will get watered down. The total ban would be replaced with fleet-wide new car limits requiring a 90% reduction in carbon emissions.
www.euractiv.com/news/von-der...
www.euractiv.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The EU enacted legislation to ban internal combustion engines in all new car sales starting in 2035.
Reportedly, this will get watered down. The total ban would be replaced with fleet-wide new car limits requiring a 90% reduction in carbon emissions.
www.euractiv.com/news/von-der...
Reportedly, this will get watered down. The total ban would be replaced with fleet-wide new car limits requiring a 90% reduction in carbon emissions.
www.euractiv.com/news/von-der...
Reposted by Robert Rohde
Jay Bhattacharya and Matthew Memoli aren't bringing "gold standard science" to the #NIH, they are gutting research slowly but surely. When this time is over, they should be hauled before Congress, and shunned for the rest of their lives. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
The U.S. Is Funding Fewer Grants in Every Area of Science and Medicine (Gift Article)
A quiet policy change means the government is making fewer bets on long-term science.
www.nytimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Jay Bhattacharya and Matthew Memoli aren't bringing "gold standard science" to the #NIH, they are gutting research slowly but surely. When this time is over, they should be hauled before Congress, and shunned for the rest of their lives. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Recently, @berkeleyearth.org expanded our temperature database by integrating the HCLIM data set.
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
December 2, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Recently, @berkeleyearth.org expanded our temperature database by integrating the HCLIM data set.
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
Early instrumental climate reconstructions (pre-1850) struggle with sparse measurements and have large uncertainties.
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
1/
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
1/
December 2, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Early instrumental climate reconstructions (pre-1850) struggle with sparse measurements and have large uncertainties.
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
1/
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
1/
Reposted by Robert Rohde
This is the most amazing (and bad!) warming trend I have ever seen for any mid or low latitude location. Holy moly.
Tehran is on the brink of a severe water crisis.
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
November 24, 2025 at 12:48 AM
This is the most amazing (and bad!) warming trend I have ever seen for any mid or low latitude location. Holy moly.
Tehran is on the brink of a severe water crisis.
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
November 24, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Tehran is on the brink of a severe water crisis.
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Don't worry guys, the countries at COP30 definitely say they want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Where are those emissions coming from? No idea.
*screams into the void*
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Where are those emissions coming from? No idea.
*screams into the void*
www.bbc.com/news/article...
COP30: UN climate summit drops mention of fossil fuels from draft deal
A row over fossil fuels has broken out at COP30 but this is also likely to be a negotiating tactic.
www.bbc.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Don't worry guys, the countries at COP30 definitely say they want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Where are those emissions coming from? No idea.
*screams into the void*
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Where are those emissions coming from? No idea.
*screams into the void*
www.bbc.com/news/article...
I'm not sure I'm entirely ready to already be talking about the next El Niño after all the temperature records that were set during the 2023/2024 El Niño.
The long-range forecasts from IRI/CPC expect that this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, dissipating early in 2026.
The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
3/3
The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
3/3
November 21, 2025 at 12:25 PM
I'm not sure I'm entirely ready to already be talking about the next El Niño after all the temperature records that were set during the 2023/2024 El Niño.
In @berkeleyearth.org's analysis, Antarctica set a new record for the monthly-average temperature in October.
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
1/
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
1/
November 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
In @berkeleyearth.org's analysis, Antarctica set a new record for the monthly-average temperature in October.
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
1/
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
1/
With everything else going on in the world, it is easy to miss that NOAA has officially declared the return of La Niña.
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
1/
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
1/
November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
With everything else going on in the world, it is easy to miss that NOAA has officially declared the return of La Niña.
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
1/
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
1/