Robert Rohde
@rarohde.bsky.social
Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
The best way to reduce those large uncertainties would be to bring in more historical data for better global coverage.
Data rescue and digitizations efforts like HCLIM, can play a big role in trying to make more early weather data available.
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Data rescue and digitizations efforts like HCLIM, can play a big role in trying to make more early weather data available.
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December 2, 2025 at 12:09 PM
The best way to reduce those large uncertainties would be to bring in more historical data for better global coverage.
Data rescue and digitizations efforts like HCLIM, can play a big role in trying to make more early weather data available.
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Data rescue and digitizations efforts like HCLIM, can play a big role in trying to make more early weather data available.
5/
Recently, @berkeleyearth.org expanded our temperature database by integrating the HCLIM data set.
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
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nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
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December 2, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Recently, @berkeleyearth.org expanded our temperature database by integrating the HCLIM data set.
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
nature.com/articles/s41...
The additional data rescued by HCLIM helps improve early reconstructions, but doesn't fundamentally change the large uncertainties due to sparse sampling.
1/
Early instrumental climate reconstructions (pre-1850) struggle with sparse measurements and have large uncertainties.
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
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But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
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December 2, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Early instrumental climate reconstructions (pre-1850) struggle with sparse measurements and have large uncertainties.
But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
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But they do provide some insights into a particularly interesting period.
Four major volcanic eruptions occurred 1780-1840, each larger than anything since.
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Tehran is on the brink of a severe water crisis.
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
November 24, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Tehran is on the brink of a severe water crisis.
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Multiple factors have left the city unprepared for the current drought, including population growth, mismanagement, and sanctions, but a rapidly warming climate is only adding to their problems.
abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
One sometimes sees claims that Antarctica isn't warming at all, but that's never been true in the Berkeley Earth analysis.
It is however the slowest warming continent, and the one subject to the most uncertainty along with large year-to-year variability (annual averages shown).
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It is however the slowest warming continent, and the one subject to the most uncertainty along with large year-to-year variability (annual averages shown).
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November 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
One sometimes sees claims that Antarctica isn't warming at all, but that's never been true in the Berkeley Earth analysis.
It is however the slowest warming continent, and the one subject to the most uncertainty along with large year-to-year variability (annual averages shown).
2/2
It is however the slowest warming continent, and the one subject to the most uncertainty along with large year-to-year variability (annual averages shown).
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In @berkeleyearth.org's analysis, Antarctica set a new record for the monthly-average temperature in October.
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
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This is part of a long-term warming trend.
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November 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
In @berkeleyearth.org's analysis, Antarctica set a new record for the monthly-average temperature in October.
This is part of a long-term warming trend.
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This is part of a long-term warming trend.
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Here is our October time series for Antarctica. Record warm on a long-term upward trend, but the new record is not by a huge margin.
This is specifically masked to the Antarctic land mass. I think some of your plots are based on a wider area including sea ice, so that would be a difference.
This is specifically masked to the Antarctic land mass. I think some of your plots are based on a wider area including sea ice, so that would be a difference.
November 21, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Here is our October time series for Antarctica. Record warm on a long-term upward trend, but the new record is not by a huge margin.
This is specifically masked to the Antarctic land mass. I think some of your plots are based on a wider area including sea ice, so that would be a difference.
This is specifically masked to the Antarctic land mass. I think some of your plots are based on a wider area including sea ice, so that would be a difference.
Returning to this, here is our monthly anomaly map based on in situ weather station data.
Still record warmth for the Antarctic average, but notably less extreme in places than ERA5.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
Still record warmth for the Antarctic average, but notably less extreme in places than ERA5.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
November 21, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Returning to this, here is our monthly anomaly map based on in situ weather station data.
Still record warmth for the Antarctic average, but notably less extreme in places than ERA5.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
Still record warmth for the Antarctic average, but notably less extreme in places than ERA5.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
The long-range forecasts from IRI/CPC expect that this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, dissipating early in 2026.
The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
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The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
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November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The long-range forecasts from IRI/CPC expect that this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, dissipating early in 2026.
The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
3/3
The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
3/3
In North America, La Niña winter is typically associated with colder / wetter conditions in the Northwest, drier / warmer conditions in the southeast, and an increased risk of Arctic outburst events.
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November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
In North America, La Niña winter is typically associated with colder / wetter conditions in the Northwest, drier / warmer conditions in the southeast, and an increased risk of Arctic outburst events.
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With everything else going on in the world, it is easy to miss that NOAA has officially declared the return of La Niña.
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
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This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
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November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
With everything else going on in the world, it is easy to miss that NOAA has officially declared the return of La Niña.
This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
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This follows the weak La Niña at the start of 2025 and neutral conditions in recent months.
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2025 is expected to conclude as the 3rd warmest year to have been directly measured.
This would place 2025 behind only the El Niño boosted record warmth in 2023 and 2024, and still modestly above the long-term trend.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
🧪🌊
This would place 2025 behind only the El Niño boosted record warmth in 2023 and 2024, and still modestly above the long-term trend.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
🧪🌊
November 21, 2025 at 11:11 AM
2025 is expected to conclude as the 3rd warmest year to have been directly measured.
This would place 2025 behind only the El Niño boosted record warmth in 2023 and 2024, and still modestly above the long-term trend.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
🧪🌊
This would place 2025 behind only the El Niño boosted record warmth in 2023 and 2024, and still modestly above the long-term trend.
berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...
🧪🌊
The same data on a log scale shows that for the first couple of decades of China's solar development, it was almost a zero sum game.
The amount of energy poured into solar panel production was nearly equal to the entire amount being generated, but a separation has now developed.
The amount of energy poured into solar panel production was nearly equal to the entire amount being generated, but a separation has now developed.
November 6, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The same data on a log scale shows that for the first couple of decades of China's solar development, it was almost a zero sum game.
The amount of energy poured into solar panel production was nearly equal to the entire amount being generated, but a separation has now developed.
The amount of energy poured into solar panel production was nearly equal to the entire amount being generated, but a separation has now developed.
The exponential rise of Chinese solar power feeds on itself.
Continued growth of solar production in China requires ever greater amounts of energy, but the energy being captured by the solar panels installed in China has grown even faster.
A virtuous cycle with energy to spare.
Continued growth of solar production in China requires ever greater amounts of energy, but the energy being captured by the solar panels installed in China has grown even faster.
A virtuous cycle with energy to spare.
November 6, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The exponential rise of Chinese solar power feeds on itself.
Continued growth of solar production in China requires ever greater amounts of energy, but the energy being captured by the solar panels installed in China has grown even faster.
A virtuous cycle with energy to spare.
Continued growth of solar production in China requires ever greater amounts of energy, but the energy being captured by the solar panels installed in China has grown even faster.
A virtuous cycle with energy to spare.
The explosive, exponential growth of solar energy makes it the fastest growing energy technology in history.
Cheap to build and fast to deploy, solar installations grew 10-fold in the last 10 years and provided 6.7% of the world's electricity in 2024.
The future is very sunny.
Cheap to build and fast to deploy, solar installations grew 10-fold in the last 10 years and provided 6.7% of the world's electricity in 2024.
The future is very sunny.
November 4, 2025 at 11:27 PM
The explosive, exponential growth of solar energy makes it the fastest growing energy technology in history.
Cheap to build and fast to deploy, solar installations grew 10-fold in the last 10 years and provided 6.7% of the world's electricity in 2024.
The future is very sunny.
Cheap to build and fast to deploy, solar installations grew 10-fold in the last 10 years and provided 6.7% of the world's electricity in 2024.
The future is very sunny.
If there is any reason for optimism, it is this.
Solar energy is growing at a faster pace than any energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
The explosive growth of solar, wind, & batteries creates the potential for a rapid transition, though as yet unrealized.
Solar energy is growing at a faster pace than any energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
The explosive growth of solar, wind, & batteries creates the potential for a rapid transition, though as yet unrealized.
November 4, 2025 at 2:29 PM
If there is any reason for optimism, it is this.
Solar energy is growing at a faster pace than any energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
The explosive growth of solar, wind, & batteries creates the potential for a rapid transition, though as yet unrealized.
Solar energy is growing at a faster pace than any energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
The explosive growth of solar, wind, & batteries creates the potential for a rapid transition, though as yet unrealized.
Unfortunately though, "percentage of energy" is fairly optimistic framing.
In absolute terms, natural gas and oil use have continued to grow.
Renewables are expanding faster, and thus grabbing a bigger share, but we are still very far from a clean energy transition.
In absolute terms, natural gas and oil use have continued to grow.
Renewables are expanding faster, and thus grabbing a bigger share, but we are still very far from a clean energy transition.
November 4, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Unfortunately though, "percentage of energy" is fairly optimistic framing.
In absolute terms, natural gas and oil use have continued to grow.
Renewables are expanding faster, and thus grabbing a bigger share, but we are still very far from a clean energy transition.
In absolute terms, natural gas and oil use have continued to grow.
Renewables are expanding faster, and thus grabbing a bigger share, but we are still very far from a clean energy transition.
This change is more noticeable if one focuses on just electricity (rather than all forms of energy), as the rise of solar and wind electricity have been grabbing market share at a rapid pace.
November 4, 2025 at 2:29 PM
This change is more noticeable if one focuses on just electricity (rather than all forms of energy), as the rise of solar and wind electricity have been grabbing market share at a rapid pace.
I thoroughly believe in celebrating the small victories, so here is a tiny one.
The percentage of humanity's energy system that is derived from fossil fuels, ticked down again in 2024 and is now technically at the lowest level since the 1960s, though fossil fuels still dominate.
The percentage of humanity's energy system that is derived from fossil fuels, ticked down again in 2024 and is now technically at the lowest level since the 1960s, though fossil fuels still dominate.
November 4, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I thoroughly believe in celebrating the small victories, so here is a tiny one.
The percentage of humanity's energy system that is derived from fossil fuels, ticked down again in 2024 and is now technically at the lowest level since the 1960s, though fossil fuels still dominate.
The percentage of humanity's energy system that is derived from fossil fuels, ticked down again in 2024 and is now technically at the lowest level since the 1960s, though fossil fuels still dominate.
I hope Scott Adams gets any medical treatment he needs.
I hope everyone does.
But it is hard to imagine a clearer example of how f-ed up and broken the USA medical system is than watching a wealthy and connected person get help that normal people could never hope for.
I hope everyone does.
But it is hard to imagine a clearer example of how f-ed up and broken the USA medical system is than watching a wealthy and connected person get help that normal people could never hope for.
November 3, 2025 at 11:16 AM
I hope Scott Adams gets any medical treatment he needs.
I hope everyone does.
But it is hard to imagine a clearer example of how f-ed up and broken the USA medical system is than watching a wealthy and connected person get help that normal people could never hope for.
I hope everyone does.
But it is hard to imagine a clearer example of how f-ed up and broken the USA medical system is than watching a wealthy and connected person get help that normal people could never hope for.
The USA only has 10-15 years of proven oil & gas deposits remaining.
The USA has had 10-15 years remaining for the last 40+ years.
New fossil fuel discoveries and new technology (e.g. fracking) have expanded fossil fuel reserves even faster than production has grown.
The USA has had 10-15 years remaining for the last 40+ years.
New fossil fuel discoveries and new technology (e.g. fracking) have expanded fossil fuel reserves even faster than production has grown.
October 27, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The USA only has 10-15 years of proven oil & gas deposits remaining.
The USA has had 10-15 years remaining for the last 40+ years.
New fossil fuel discoveries and new technology (e.g. fracking) have expanded fossil fuel reserves even faster than production has grown.
The USA has had 10-15 years remaining for the last 40+ years.
New fossil fuel discoveries and new technology (e.g. fracking) have expanded fossil fuel reserves even faster than production has grown.
Meteorologists are raising alarms that cuts made to weather balloon launches early in Trump's term may have directly contributed to poor forecasts of the catastrophic storm that recently hit western Alaska.
edition.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
edition.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
October 16, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Meteorologists are raising alarms that cuts made to weather balloon launches early in Trump's term may have directly contributed to poor forecasts of the catastrophic storm that recently hit western Alaska.
edition.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
edition.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
In 2024, China increased electricity production from solar and wind by 366 TWh above 2023 values.
A 1 GW nuclear plant with an 85% capacity factor, generates ~7.5 TWh / year.
In other words, China deployed new solar and wind equivalent to ~50 nuclear power plants.
A 1 GW nuclear plant with an 85% capacity factor, generates ~7.5 TWh / year.
In other words, China deployed new solar and wind equivalent to ~50 nuclear power plants.
October 15, 2025 at 2:51 PM
In 2024, China increased electricity production from solar and wind by 366 TWh above 2023 values.
A 1 GW nuclear plant with an 85% capacity factor, generates ~7.5 TWh / year.
In other words, China deployed new solar and wind equivalent to ~50 nuclear power plants.
A 1 GW nuclear plant with an 85% capacity factor, generates ~7.5 TWh / year.
In other words, China deployed new solar and wind equivalent to ~50 nuclear power plants.
Hail is very non-uniformly distributed around the world.
For much of the world, you almost never see hail large enough to damage solar panels. The central USA does have some issues though.
sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
For much of the world, you almost never see hail large enough to damage solar panels. The central USA does have some issues though.
sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
October 15, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Hail is very non-uniformly distributed around the world.
For much of the world, you almost never see hail large enough to damage solar panels. The central USA does have some issues though.
sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
For much of the world, you almost never see hail large enough to damage solar panels. The central USA does have some issues though.
sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
How often have I heard American conservatives complain about environmental regulations getting in the way of business?
It's rather ironic then that Trump is using environmental rules to delay / cancel a solar project in the Nevada desert that would have been the US's largest.
It's rather ironic then that Trump is using environmental rules to delay / cancel a solar project in the Nevada desert that would have been the US's largest.
October 13, 2025 at 12:35 PM
How often have I heard American conservatives complain about environmental regulations getting in the way of business?
It's rather ironic then that Trump is using environmental rules to delay / cancel a solar project in the Nevada desert that would have been the US's largest.
It's rather ironic then that Trump is using environmental rules to delay / cancel a solar project in the Nevada desert that would have been the US's largest.