That figure, from January, predates Hansen et al.

Your ERA5-land curve has very different absolute temperature values than than either my curve or the climate reanalyzer one. That suggests there might be an averaging problem.

One of the things to know in this context is that ERA5 has none of the weather station temperatures in its input dataset.

So its surface air temperature is going to depend heavily on how well it can translate things like pressure fields and satellite data into Antarctic surface temperature.

One sometimes sees claims that Antarctica isn't warming at all, but that's never been true in the Berkeley Earth analysis.

It is however the slowest warming continent, and the one subject to the most uncertainty along with large year-to-year variability (annual averages shown).

2/2

Here is our October time series for Antarctica. Record warm on a long-term upward trend, but the new record is not by a huge margin.

This is specifically masked to the Antarctic land mass. I think some of your plots are based on a wider area including sea ice, so that would be a difference.

Returning to this, here is our monthly anomaly map based on in situ weather station data.

Still record warmth for the Antarctic average, but notably less extreme in places than ERA5.

berkeleyearth.org/october-2025...

The long-range forecasts from IRI/CPC expect that this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, dissipating early in 2026.

The development of a new El Niño event is possible in mid-to-late 2026.

iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...

3/3

In North America, La Niña winter is typically associated with colder / wetter conditions in the Northwest, drier / warmer conditions in the southeast, and an increased risk of Arctic outburst events.

2/

There are multiple flavors of the "ten-word summary of climate change" around, such as:

It's real.
It's us.
It's bad.
Experts agree.
There's hope.

Over time it seems like discussions have shifted to be less focused on point 1 & 2 and more on point 3.

I guess that's progress.

I suspect you knew what I meant, but I should have written Eastern Antarctica above rather than Western.

The ERA5 estimates in Western Antarctica are somewhat more extreme in their anomalies than what the in situ stations reported last month.

The same data on a log scale shows that for the first couple of decades of China's solar development, it was almost a zero sum game.

The amount of energy poured into solar panel production was nearly equal to the entire amount being generated, but a separation has now developed.