Philippe Papin
@pppapin.bsky.social
Sr. Hurricane Specialist at NHC 🌀 | Ph.D + M.S. via UAlbany & B.S. via UNCA | Enjoy all kinds of weather 🌤❄️⛈🌪| Thoughts are my own
I think @discord.com has taken up the spot that old school bulletin board forums like Storm2k, Wunderground, EasternUSWx had. 2015-2020 was the golden age of #wxtwitter but now that misinformation has taken a hold there it is hard to see a path where the online wx community is more unified again.
January 5, 2026 at 10:47 PM
I think @discord.com has taken up the spot that old school bulletin board forums like Storm2k, Wunderground, EasternUSWx had. 2015-2020 was the golden age of #wxtwitter but now that misinformation has taken a hold there it is hard to see a path where the online wx community is more unified again.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday.
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...
December 23, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday.
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken.
How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.
How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.
December 23, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken.
How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.
How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.
December 19, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.
Nice! Thanks for producing that on such short notice!
December 8, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Nice! Thanks for producing that on such short notice!
Awesome! Yeah it’s a great way to highlight the evolution of these important environmental values for TC activity.
December 5, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Awesome! Yeah it’s a great way to highlight the evolution of these important environmental values for TC activity.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days.
Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.
Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS
Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.
Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS
December 5, 2025 at 4:13 PM
❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days.
Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.
Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS
Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.
Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS
Sad but true 😔… felt this a lot of times in upstate SC.
December 5, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Sad but true 😔… felt this a lot of times in upstate SC.
Really love the idea you have of producing joint probabilities of relevant TC env, but can’t help but wonder how sensitive this result is to the thresholds you have chosen. Maybe try RH >70%, SSTs >27C, & shear <7.5 m/s. May also need to use vortex removal to get rid of TC influenced environments.
December 5, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Really love the idea you have of producing joint probabilities of relevant TC env, but can’t help but wonder how sensitive this result is to the thresholds you have chosen. Maybe try RH >70%, SSTs >27C, & shear <7.5 m/s. May also need to use vortex removal to get rid of TC influenced environments.
Interesting plot… but a little confused on the AEW activity right at the end of the plot in late Oct right before Nov. Aside from the wave the spawned #Melissa what other waves were contributing to the index… could this be a case of much activity produced by one single TC in the MDR box?
December 5, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Interesting plot… but a little confused on the AEW activity right at the end of the plot in late Oct right before Nov. Aside from the wave the spawned #Melissa what other waves were contributing to the index… could this be a case of much activity produced by one single TC in the MDR box?
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Persistent fog and low stratus clouds have been plaguing California's Central Valley for the last week.
December 1, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Persistent fog and low stratus clouds have been plaguing California's Central Valley for the last week.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
December is the coldest month of the year for most areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean.
December 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
December is the coldest month of the year for most areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean.
That’s great to hear the progress in this space! Really with future funding for supercomputers likely partitioning between both CPUs & GPUs, it’s going to be increasingly critical going forward for physics based models behind able to run with CPUs/GPUs. Looking forward to seeing the developments!
December 1, 2025 at 3:47 AM
That’s great to hear the progress in this space! Really with future funding for supercomputers likely partitioning between both CPUs & GPUs, it’s going to be increasingly critical going forward for physics based models behind able to run with CPUs/GPUs. Looking forward to seeing the developments!
They won’t go away *if* funding is provided for these critical datasets. We are at a pretty precarious crossroads in ATMS. A big advantage of ML-based modeling techniques is efficiency gains using GPUs.
We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.
We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.
December 1, 2025 at 12:44 AM
They won’t go away *if* funding is provided for these critical datasets. We are at a pretty precarious crossroads in ATMS. A big advantage of ML-based modeling techniques is efficiency gains using GPUs.
We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.
We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1995096242884358356
November 30, 2025 at 11:44 AM
11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1995096242884358356
Interesting to see that the only period where the shear went above normal in Aug-Sep-Oct was at end of October, when #Melissa was in the Caribbean.
There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?
There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?
November 30, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Interesting to see that the only period where the shear went above normal in Aug-Sep-Oct was at end of October, when #Melissa was in the Caribbean.
There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?
There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?
The last sentence resonated with me most. We now have a TC ensemble, in addition to hurricane regional models, capable of forecasting high-end TC intensity.
In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.
Human interpretation & NWP still vital.
In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.
Human interpretation & NWP still vital.
November 30, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The last sentence resonated with me most. We now have a TC ensemble, in addition to hurricane regional models, capable of forecasting high-end TC intensity.
In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.
Human interpretation & NWP still vital.
In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.
Human interpretation & NWP still vital.
Unfortunately #Senyar has been a very impactful system. Widespread flooding appears to have taken the lives of hundreds of people across #Thailand, #Malaysia, & #Indonesia. 😔
www.dw.com/en/southeast...
www.dw.com/en/southeast...
Southeast Asia floods: More than 250 deaths reported – DW – 11/28/2025
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have been hit by flooding and landslides after days of torrential rainfall. The death toll rose sharply in southern Thailand, with at least 145 now reported dead.
www.dw.com
November 28, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Unfortunately #Senyar has been a very impactful system. Widespread flooding appears to have taken the lives of hundreds of people across #Thailand, #Malaysia, & #Indonesia. 😔
www.dw.com/en/southeast...
www.dw.com/en/southeast...
Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea.
Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth
Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth
November 28, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea.
Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth
Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Is your vehicle ready for the winter? Watch this brief video to know what needs to be in your emergency kit and how to winterize your vehicle. For more winter weather safety tips visit weather.gov/safety.
November 26, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Is your vehicle ready for the winter? Watch this brief video to know what needs to be in your emergency kit and how to winterize your vehicle. For more winter weather safety tips visit weather.gov/safety.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️
November 25, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Here are the latest key messages for the current storm impacting the Great Lakes.
Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Here are the latest key messages for the current storm impacting the Great Lakes.
Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Reposted by Philippe Papin
JUST IN: The 2025 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason ends on Nov. 30 with 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 4 intensified to be major hurricanes.
Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release...
@nws.noaa.gov
Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release...
@nws.noaa.gov
November 25, 2025 at 2:22 PM
JUST IN: The 2025 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason ends on Nov. 30 with 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 4 intensified to be major hurricanes.
Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release...
@nws.noaa.gov
Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release...
@nws.noaa.gov
The National Hurricane Center has put together a 2025 Verification Preview.
Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year.
URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...
Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year.
URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...
November 25, 2025 at 3:28 AM
The National Hurricane Center has put together a 2025 Verification Preview.
Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year.
URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...
Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year.
URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...
Reposted by Philippe Papin
After many long months, I’m excited to announce: we’re hiring!
GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions.
jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...
GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions.
jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...
CIRES / NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Land Surface Modeler
jobs.colorado.edu
November 22, 2025 at 2:38 AM
After many long months, I’m excited to announce: we’re hiring!
GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions.
jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...
GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions.
jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...