Philippe Papin
@pppapin.bsky.social
Sr. Hurricane Specialist at NHC 🌀 | Ph.D + M.S. via UAlbany & B.S. via UNCA | Enjoy all kinds of weather 🌤❄️⛈🌪| Thoughts are my own
What is poor practice during Hurricane season is also poor practice in Winter Season.
Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time.
My 2️⃣🪙
Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time.
My 2️⃣🪙
There is a reason why most (unfortunately I can’t say all) #meteorologists don’t show extended range ensemble forecasts for a reason. Even if a disclaimer like “this is not a forecast” is given, the forecast is still being shown and could be misinterpreted as such. 😒
November 24, 2025 at 9:34 PM
What is poor practice during Hurricane season is also poor practice in Winter Season.
Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time.
My 2️⃣🪙
Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time.
My 2️⃣🪙
Reposted by Philippe Papin
A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz
Tragic vehicle accident takes an NWS office offline
Looking at how the NWS offices back each other up. Severe weather and flash flooding in the south central US next couple of days.
tinyurl.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:02 PM
A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz
Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range.
Makes for some photogenic views!
Makes for some photogenic views!
November 23, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range.
Makes for some photogenic views!
Makes for some photogenic views!
That’s a lot of intense hurricanes over the past 5 years 😵💫
We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.
We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.
Every Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2020, all together, in one group photo.
H/t to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for the inspiration.
H/t to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for the inspiration.
November 21, 2025 at 5:35 PM
That’s a lot of intense hurricanes over the past 5 years 😵💫
We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.
We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
November 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages.
Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once.
Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰
Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once.
Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰
November 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages.
Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once.
Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰
Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once.
Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰
Seems like the #Aurora is already visible over a large chunk of the CONUS tonight thanks to the #CME's over the last few days from a couple of significant X-class solar flares.
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-12T01:30:26Z
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0121 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe
Additional Details Here.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0121 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe
Additional Details Here.
November 12, 2025 at 2:48 AM
I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area.
Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp.
Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx
Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp.
Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx
November 11, 2025 at 10:58 PM
I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area.
Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp.
Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx
Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp.
Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx
Another way to put it -- in time it took to get 2️⃣ daily record lows at #KMIA, we set new record highs for more than a quarter of days in the calendar year b/w Nov 2014 to Nov 2025 (97/365 ~ 27% of all days).
So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx
So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx
November 11, 2025 at 9:44 PM
This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade!
Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx
Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx
November 11, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Reposted by Philippe Papin
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
Fascinating interaction of #wx scales near Lake Michigan tonight.
A Lake Effect Snow #LES band streched N-to-S across the lake, but a potent vortmax dropped in just west, providing large-scale ascent & changing morphology of band into a mesolow, enhancing #snow over #Chicago & Indiana tonight. 🌨️
A Lake Effect Snow #LES band streched N-to-S across the lake, but a potent vortmax dropped in just west, providing large-scale ascent & changing morphology of band into a mesolow, enhancing #snow over #Chicago & Indiana tonight. 🌨️
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Reposted by Philippe Papin
A strong cold front this weekend will put the "ber" in November as frigid air spills out across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This winter-like chill will flood across the eastern half of the country early next week, bringing the potential for record cold temperatures to the Gulf by Tuesday.
November 7, 2025 at 7:48 PM
A strong cold front this weekend will put the "ber" in November as frigid air spills out across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This winter-like chill will flood across the eastern half of the country early next week, bringing the potential for record cold temperatures to the Gulf by Tuesday.
A couple of recent examples from WPAC #Typhoons that Google DeepMind has been too intense with. First #Kalmaegi & now #Fung-Wong.
Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.
Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.
And another one:
November 9, 2025 at 12:04 AM
A couple of recent examples from WPAC #Typhoons that Google DeepMind has been too intense with. First #Kalmaegi & now #Fung-Wong.
Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.
Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Undergraduate opportunity! 📣 The NSF SOARS program is open for applications! SOARS is an undergrad-grad bridge program focusing on promoting and supporting research, mentoring, and community.
Learn more about eligibility and the app process:
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...
Learn more about eligibility and the app process:
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...
2026 NSF SOARS® First-Year Protege
Job Description Summary: UCAR is excited to announce the application opening of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) program...
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Undergraduate opportunity! 📣 The NSF SOARS program is open for applications! SOARS is an undergrad-grad bridge program focusing on promoting and supporting research, mentoring, and community.
Learn more about eligibility and the app process:
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...
Learn more about eligibility and the app process:
ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...
Here is a zoomed in radar version of 28 Oct showing #Melissa 's inner core evolution before #Jamaica landfall.
Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC.
Horrible for Jamaica 😞
Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC.
Horrible for Jamaica 😞
November 3, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
October 30, 2025 at 9:57 PM
The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Reposted by Philippe Papin
A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.
October 30, 2025 at 6:27 PM
A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.
Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar.
2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after.
A remarkable evolution 🌀
2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after.
A remarkable evolution 🌀
October 30, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar.
2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after.
A remarkable evolution 🌀
2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after.
A remarkable evolution 🌀
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Incredible Sentinal-2 satellite imagery of #Melissa at peak intensity before landfall. In the cloud-free areas of the eye you can see the physical effect of the surface wind gradient (2nd image): chaotic whitecapped waves near center transition to extreme sea spray/linear streaking near the eyewall!
October 29, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Incredible Sentinal-2 satellite imagery of #Melissa at peak intensity before landfall. In the cloud-free areas of the eye you can see the physical effect of the surface wind gradient (2nd image): chaotic whitecapped waves near center transition to extreme sea spray/linear streaking near the eyewall!
Reposted by Philippe Papin
Given higher than usual confidence of rapid intensification (RI) from analyses of an exceptionally favorable environment & with the aid of newer hurricane models (HAFS) & Google DeepMind, NHC was able to skillfully predict Melissa's RI days in advance.
October 29, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Given higher than usual confidence of rapid intensification (RI) from analyses of an exceptionally favorable environment & with the aid of newer hurricane models (HAFS) & Google DeepMind, NHC was able to skillfully predict Melissa's RI days in advance.
Tomer always makes the best visualizations, but this is up there with the best... an incredible overview of #Melissa's remarkable evolution over the past 5 days.
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
October 30, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Tomer always makes the best visualizations, but this is up there with the best... an incredible overview of #Melissa's remarkable evolution over the past 5 days.
Re-upping this thread, but like a month ago, #Melissa peaked in what is thought as a less favorable intereseasonal base state: Convective MJO envelope in maritime continent w/ suppression over NATL.
Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷♂️
Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷♂️
October 30, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Re-upping this thread, but like a month ago, #Melissa peaked in what is thought as a less favorable intereseasonal base state: Convective MJO envelope in maritime continent w/ suppression over NATL.
Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷♂️
Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷♂️
Reposted by Philippe Papin
As of 11 AM ET, Hurricane Melissa has moved offshore of northeastern Cuba and is moving toward the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Melissa will move through the SE Bahamas today and approach Bermuda tomorrow where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect.
hurricanes.gov
hurricanes.gov
October 29, 2025 at 3:40 PM
As of 11 AM ET, Hurricane Melissa has moved offshore of northeastern Cuba and is moving toward the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Melissa will move through the SE Bahamas today and approach Bermuda tomorrow where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect.
hurricanes.gov
hurricanes.gov