Philippe Papin
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pppapin.bsky.social
Philippe Papin
@pppapin.bsky.social
Sr. Hurricane Specialist at NHC 🌀 | Ph.D + M.S. via UAlbany & B.S. via UNCA | Enjoy all kinds of weather 🌤❄️⛈🌪| Thoughts are my own
Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea.

Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth
November 28, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range.

Makes for some photogenic views!
November 23, 2025 at 7:24 PM
This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade!

Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx
November 11, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Here is a zoomed in view of the radar along the S shore of Lake Michigan tonight.

Likely some multi inch per hour snowfall rates and potential whiteout conditions as this band moves over Chicago metro & adjacent areas.

Good thing this is occurring overnight & not during a major travel period.
November 10, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Fascinating interaction of #wx scales near Lake Michigan tonight.

A Lake Effect Snow #LES band streched N-to-S across the lake, but a potent vortmax dropped in just west, providing large-scale ascent & changing morphology of band into a mesolow, enhancing #snow over #Chicago & Indiana tonight. 🌨️
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Here is a zoomed in radar version of 28 Oct showing #Melissa 's inner core evolution before #Jamaica landfall.

Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC.

Horrible for Jamaica 😞
November 3, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar.

2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after.

A remarkable evolution 🌀
October 30, 2025 at 6:54 AM
#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞

Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb.

You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!
October 28, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Here is a 54h WV loop of #Melissa as it underwent rapid intensification from a 60 kt TS ➡️ 150 kt cat 5 #Hurricane.

Pay attention to how "warm" eye becomes at the end of the loop which ends at 18 UTC 27 Oct.

Color scale ends at -5C & eye temp on the last few frames was warmer than that 🤯
October 27, 2025 at 11:42 PM