Mike Byrne
@drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social
climate scientist | extreme temperatures, atmospheric dynamics, water cycle | Reader @ U. St Andrews, PhD from MIT | he/him | 🇮🇪 in 🏴
https://sites.google.com/view/climate-dynamics-lab
https://sites.google.com/view/climate-dynamics-lab
Reposted by Mike Byrne
In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur.
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming
Midlatitude extreme cold events have decreased in severity and frequency over recent decades, in agreement with models.
doi.org
January 22, 2026 at 4:14 PM
In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur.
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Research Assistant position closing 25th: my.corehr.com/pls/nuimrecr... to work on the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social contract on access to global land meteorological holdings.
January 20, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Research Assistant position closing 25th: my.corehr.com/pls/nuimrecr... to work on the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social contract on access to global land meteorological holdings.
Great to be back @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social to present a seminar on understanding the physics of climate change over land. Catching 'Playboy of the Western World' @nationaltheatre.org.uk is an added bonus!
January 19, 2026 at 2:50 PM
Great to be back @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social to present a seminar on understanding the physics of climate change over land. Catching 'Playboy of the Western World' @nationaltheatre.org.uk is an added bonus!
Reposted by Mike Byrne
2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
January 14, 2026 at 2:53 PM
2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice
New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
AI does math proofs. Very interesting thread from a top mathematician.
mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1158558...
mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1158558...
Terence Tao (@tao@mathstodon.xyz)
Recently, the application of AI tools to Erdos problems passed a milestone: an Erdos problem (#728 https://www.erdosproblems.com/728) was solved more or less autonomously by AI (after some feedback fr...
mathstodon.xyz
January 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM
AI does math proofs. Very interesting thread from a top mathematician.
mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1158558...
mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1158558...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
This study shows that the tropical meridional surface #temperature gradient remains stable across a wide range of climates. This robust feature is maintained by solar radiation and tropical dynamics and provides a fundamental law to study #ClimateChange. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Quasi-invariance of tropical meridional surface temperature gradient in a wide range of climates - Nature Communications
This study shows that the tropical meridional surface temperature gradient remains stable across a wide range of climates from extremely cold to extremely hot. This robust feature is maintained by sol...
www.nature.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:11 PM
This study shows that the tropical meridional surface #temperature gradient remains stable across a wide range of climates. This robust feature is maintained by solar radiation and tropical dynamics and provides a fundamental law to study #ClimateChange. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Heavy snowfall events will occur throughout the 21st century, despite global warming ❄️⛄⛷️
Reason is non-intuitive and relates to the existence of an 'optimal' temp for heavy snow that is insensitive to warming (details: www.nature.com/articles/nat...)
#climate #snow
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reason is non-intuitive and relates to the existence of an 'optimal' temp for heavy snow that is insensitive to warming (details: www.nature.com/articles/nat...)
#climate #snow
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Ice and snow warning for most of Scotland as hundreds of schools remain closed
The Met Office warning covering all of Scotland apart from Shetland is from 22:00 on Wednesday until noon on Thursday.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 7, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Heavy snowfall events will occur throughout the 21st century, despite global warming ❄️⛄⛷️
Reason is non-intuitive and relates to the existence of an 'optimal' temp for heavy snow that is insensitive to warming (details: www.nature.com/articles/nat...)
#climate #snow
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reason is non-intuitive and relates to the existence of an 'optimal' temp for heavy snow that is insensitive to warming (details: www.nature.com/articles/nat...)
#climate #snow
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Open full Professor position in beautiful Scotland…
Fancy working somewhere with views like this less than a 10 min walk from your office?
Are you an outstanding scholar of international standing within the field of Earth and environmental sciences?
This could be the job for you: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
Are you an outstanding scholar of international standing within the field of Earth and environmental sciences?
This could be the job for you: www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
January 7, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Open full Professor position in beautiful Scotland…
Tropical Temperature Distributions Over a Wide Range of Climates 🌡️🥵
Using theory + sims, we explore how temperature PDFs respond to climate change over land vs ocean. Work led by Josh Duffield! @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @ametsoc.org
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Using theory + sims, we explore how temperature PDFs respond to climate change over land vs ocean. Work led by Josh Duffield! @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @ametsoc.org
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
January 6, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Tropical Temperature Distributions Over a Wide Range of Climates 🌡️🥵
Using theory + sims, we explore how temperature PDFs respond to climate change over land vs ocean. Work led by Josh Duffield! @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @ametsoc.org
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Using theory + sims, we explore how temperature PDFs respond to climate change over land vs ocean. Work led by Josh Duffield! @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @ametsoc.org
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Starting 2026 with a bang, our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉
In it, we explored how polar amplification depends on the underlying climate state, with implications for understanding the past and future evolution of polar climate change!
Enjoy! :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118423
In it, we explored how polar amplification depends on the underlying climate state, with implications for understanding the past and future evolution of polar climate change!
Enjoy! :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118423
January 6, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Starting 2026 with a bang, our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉
In it, we explored how polar amplification depends on the underlying climate state, with implications for understanding the past and future evolution of polar climate change!
Enjoy! :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118423
In it, we explored how polar amplification depends on the underlying climate state, with implications for understanding the past and future evolution of polar climate change!
Enjoy! :)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118423
Reposted by Mike Byrne
And speaking of future heatwaves.
New paper alert! A tour de force by my (now former) PhD student Adam Bauer.
We introduce SMACM (Soil Moisture Atmosphere Coupled Model): a simple(ish) nonlinear Hasselman model to explain the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture.
New paper alert! A tour de force by my (now former) PhD student Adam Bauer.
We introduce SMACM (Soil Moisture Atmosphere Coupled Model): a simple(ish) nonlinear Hasselman model to explain the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture.
doi.org
January 5, 2026 at 5:50 PM
And speaking of future heatwaves.
New paper alert! A tour de force by my (now former) PhD student Adam Bauer.
We introduce SMACM (Soil Moisture Atmosphere Coupled Model): a simple(ish) nonlinear Hasselman model to explain the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture.
New paper alert! A tour de force by my (now former) PhD student Adam Bauer.
We introduce SMACM (Soil Moisture Atmosphere Coupled Model): a simple(ish) nonlinear Hasselman model to explain the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture.
Reposted by Mike Byrne
This is interesting -- and has parallels in physics and climate science w.r.t. the balance between science for understanding and skillful prediction.
Comments @alisabokulich.bsky.social?
Comments @alisabokulich.bsky.social?
This is an interesting essay on methodological weaknesses in computer science and machine learning, exploring the limits of trying to accumulate knowledge mainly by building things.
doomscrollingbabel.manoel.xyz/p/the-empiri...
doomscrollingbabel.manoel.xyz/p/the-empiri...
The Empiricism Gap in Computer Science
So far, I have argued that there is a dissonance between, on the one hand, CS’s founding myths, curricula, and self-image, and, on the other hand, the modern production of knowledge in computer scienc...
doomscrollingbabel.manoel.xyz
January 4, 2026 at 5:07 PM
This is interesting -- and has parallels in physics and climate science w.r.t. the balance between science for understanding and skillful prediction.
Comments @alisabokulich.bsky.social?
Comments @alisabokulich.bsky.social?
🚨Professorship at St Andrews🚨
We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social
Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26!
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social
Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26!
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
Chair in Earth Sciences - AC2672
Chair in Earth Sciences - AC2672,
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Salary: Grade 9/Negotiable
Start Date: September 2026
,
<p style="margin-right: 22.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: bl...
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk
January 5, 2026 at 9:26 AM
🚨Professorship at St Andrews🚨
We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social
Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26!
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social
Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26!
www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
January 4, 2026 at 5:38 PM
2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Reposted by Mike Byrne
It is likely that 2025 will be the warmest year on record for the UK.
Why does this matter?
Burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, including the UK, causing heatwaves to get hotter. For Central England this is happening 2x faster than the mean change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Why does this matter?
Burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, including the UK, causing heatwaves to get hotter. For Central England this is happening 2x faster than the mean change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
December 23, 2025 at 10:51 AM
It is likely that 2025 will be the warmest year on record for the UK.
Why does this matter?
Burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, including the UK, causing heatwaves to get hotter. For Central England this is happening 2x faster than the mean change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Why does this matter?
Burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, including the UK, causing heatwaves to get hotter. For Central England this is happening 2x faster than the mean change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Trump administration plans to break up largest federal climate research center
Russ Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said the National Science Foundation "will be breaking up" the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
www.nbcnews.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:01 PM
“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Reposted by Mike Byrne
📣 LEAP IS HIRING! 📣
Spread the word - we're looking to add to our Data + Compute team!
▶️ APPLY TODAY: academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/174775
Spread the word - we're looking to add to our Data + Compute team!
▶️ APPLY TODAY: academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/174775
December 12, 2025 at 1:39 PM
📣 LEAP IS HIRING! 📣
Spread the word - we're looking to add to our Data + Compute team!
▶️ APPLY TODAY: academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/174775
Spread the word - we're looking to add to our Data + Compute team!
▶️ APPLY TODAY: academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/174775
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
iapetus.ac.uk
December 11, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Linking persistence, predictability and extremes in a changing climate
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
PhD project through @iapetusdtp.bsky.social with me, @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, Nick Dunstone (Met Office) & Chris Taylor (CEH)
iapetus.ac.uk/studentships...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
📢Submit to our EGU session!📢
We are organizing a session at EGU 2026 in Vienna, with a focus on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks and the pattern effect!
If you work on anything related to climate sensitivity, we'd love to have you! 🥳🥳🥳 Submit soon! :)
We are organizing a session at EGU 2026 in Vienna, with a focus on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks and the pattern effect!
If you work on anything related to climate sensitivity, we'd love to have you! 🥳🥳🥳 Submit soon! :)
December 9, 2025 at 7:54 PM
📢Submit to our EGU session!📢
We are organizing a session at EGU 2026 in Vienna, with a focus on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks and the pattern effect!
If you work on anything related to climate sensitivity, we'd love to have you! 🥳🥳🥳 Submit soon! :)
We are organizing a session at EGU 2026 in Vienna, with a focus on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks and the pattern effect!
If you work on anything related to climate sensitivity, we'd love to have you! 🥳🥳🥳 Submit soon! :)
Excited to attend the inaugural Scottish Climate Conference! Organised by @annamackie.bsky.social and Alex Chaudhri, the event will take place over the next two days @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social #climate #science
December 4, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Excited to attend the inaugural Scottish Climate Conference! Organised by @annamackie.bsky.social and Alex Chaudhri, the event will take place over the next two days @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social #climate #science
Reposted by Mike Byrne
A polar vortex of confusion simonleewx.com/2025/11/20/a...
A polar vortex of confusion
Meteorologists have a historical penchant for giving names to atmospheric phenomena which, in today’s world, sound rather like phrases made up to fit a dramatic headline than real scientific …
simonleewx.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:52 AM
A polar vortex of confusion simonleewx.com/2025/11/20/a...
We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Session CL4.2
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
November 18, 2025 at 5:59 PM
We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Apparently Hurricane Melissa was "engineered" as part of a land-clearing plot to build smart cities in Jamaica 🤔 Here is my attempt, via BBC Verify, to douse this conspiracy nonsense with some science facts: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c9...
Examining deadly Rio clashes between police and notorious gang
Latest updates from the BBC's specialists in fact-checking, verifying video and tackling disinformation.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 29, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Apparently Hurricane Melissa was "engineered" as part of a land-clearing plot to build smart cities in Jamaica 🤔 Here is my attempt, via BBC Verify, to douse this conspiracy nonsense with some science facts: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c9...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Trends in October temperatures over land areas for the last 50 years...
Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
October 23, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Trends in October temperatures over land areas for the last 50 years...
Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...