Peter du Toit
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peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.

https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
Pinned
We *really* need to listen to the actuaries who have an intimate understanding of risk management as we face the expanding #ClimateCrisis

Do this ASAP:

1. Read Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk/document-lib...

2. Then listen to @racheldonald.bsky.social’s excellent interview with Sandy Trust
Planetary Solvency | Sandy Trust
YouTube video by Planet: Critical
youtu.be
As #COP30 officially starts today, a look at how various actors try to obstruct UN climate processes, with @cssn.org's Kari de Pryck and Eduardo Viola drilled.media/podcasts/dri...
S14, Ep10 | The Corruption of COP
Investigating the obstacles to action on climate change.
drilled.media

Reposted by Du Toit

From net zero to NDCs: your comprehensive #COP30 jargon buster

- Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil

#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
From net zero to NDCs: your comprehensive Cop30 jargon buster
Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Du Toit

⚠️ The human cost of broken promises

When ARTsolar's market collapsed, it wasn't just 1 company that suffered:
- 500+ workers lost their jobs
- Suppliers shut down
- Years of skills development and training erased

Read the full investigation ➡️ bit.ly/47sWc3n
@gijn.org @mobilize-za.bsky.social

Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)

The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.

Stating the obvious.

UNEP (2025): "To date however no NDCs set targets to reduce oil
and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
Rich countries have lost enthusiasm for tackling climate crisis, says Cop30 chief
Brazil’s André Corrêa do Lago says countries should follow China’s lead on clean energy as conference begins
www.theguardian.com

Given these odds it would be 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 for local and national governments not to urgently act on adaptation plans to mitigate against the risks associated with crossing 2ºC

There is absolutely not a day to lose.

Also do you have a personal resilience plan?

#Adaptation #ClimateCrisis
Reality check via UNEP latest data:

A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)

A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)

Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:

“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”

www.climatecentre.or...
"Far from a peak, China's gasoline demand is estimated to have fallen 9% in October on the year to 12.5 million tons, with average daily use roughly flat with September..."

China's oil demand is entering structural decline.
EVs put an end to China's usual holiday surge in gasoline use
Tianyu Jiang took a 2,000-km (1,200-mile) road trip this month during China's national holiday week, driving in his electric vehicle from the southwestern Sichuan basin to Beijing for the first time.
www.reuters.com

We are in the upside down.

About the Amazon rainforest.
Amazon rainforest cut down to build highway for COP climate summit
The infrastructure required to host COP30 in Belém is undermining the cause, campaigners say.
www.bbc.com

I understand where you are coming from but we haven’t yet passed *all* the tipping points.

But we are indeed well on our way.

We do however, have it in our hands to prevent every 0.1°C after 2°C. The technology is there. The know-how is there.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Planet’s first catastrophic climate tipping point reached, report says, with coral reefs facing ‘widespread dieback’
Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns
www.theguardian.com

Honestly, these people just don't get it.

"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"

Reposted by Du Toit

Developing countries urgently need massive increases in adaptation finance to protect people, livelihoods, and economies from escalating climate change impacts: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025

#AdaptationGap

Correct.

UNEP (2025): "To date no [Nationally Determined Contributions] set targets to reduce oil and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."

NEW from Philippine PAGASA:

"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"

www.pagasa.dost.gov....

#Uwan #Philippines

Reality check via UNEP latest data:

A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)

A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)

We absolutely are!

ICYMI

"Despite the scale of fossil fuel industry presence revealed by this data, COP30 is set to proceed with effectively zero protections against interference [by said fossil lobbyists] in place.

kickbigpollutersout....

This all at ~1.5ºC of global heating.

According to the latest UNEP estimate there is a 92% certainty that we will cross 2ºC of heating.

What happens then?

#CllimateCrisis
The Vietnamese Bach Ma Mountain Peak station recorded one-day rainfall of 1,739 mm - close to the global one-day record and perhaps a new record for the northern hemisphere. It is part of a deluge Viet Nam has seen in October, shattering 35 precip records. e.vnexpress.net/news/news/en...
Vietnam sees 35 rainfall records broken in October - VnExpress International
Vietnam's northern and central regions saw a total of 35 rain records broken in October alone as two storms, Matmo and Fengshen, caused unprecedented downpours.
e.vnexpress.net

Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:

"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell

#ClimateCrisis

Re spoofing vehicles - time to use bitchat.free
bitchat
bitchat.free

Methane plumes detected over the United States Nov 4, 2025.

Likelihood of limiting warming below 2°C?

8%

The United States has been the world’s largest producer of methane gas since 2009.

The three regions are:

The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville

Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...

This is the way of course.

Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024

Exactly this. It’s all there in plain sight. Pg. 299 of the document.

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Du Toit

The Vietnamese Bach Ma Mountain Peak station recorded one-day rainfall of 1,739 mm - close to the global one-day record and perhaps a new record for the northern hemisphere. It is part of a deluge Viet Nam has seen in October, shattering 35 precip records. e.vnexpress.net/news/news/en...
Vietnam sees 35 rainfall records broken in October - VnExpress International
Vietnam's northern and central regions saw a total of 35 rain records broken in October alone as two storms, Matmo and Fengshen, caused unprecedented downpours.
e.vnexpress.net