Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
As a big fan of ephemeral social media posts delete after 60 days.
Signal: https://peterdutoit.com/signal
Website: https://peterdutoit.com
As a big fan of ephemeral social media posts delete after 60 days.
Signal: https://peterdutoit.com/signal
Website: https://peterdutoit.com
Pinned
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
· Nov 8
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
Reposted by Peter du Toit
🌡️ The latest #C3S Climate Bulletin reports the fifth-warmest January globally, with an average surface air temperature 1.47°C above pre-industrial level. Global average sea surface temperature 4th-highest on record for the month.
Details: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
#CopernicusClimate
Details: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
#CopernicusClimate
February 10, 2026 at 8:31 AM
🌡️ The latest #C3S Climate Bulletin reports the fifth-warmest January globally, with an average surface air temperature 1.47°C above pre-industrial level. Global average sea surface temperature 4th-highest on record for the month.
Details: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
#CopernicusClimate
Details: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
#CopernicusClimate
The people behind Project 2025, the 70 plus million who voted for this and the millions who stayed at home during the last election are directly responsible for the climate chaos that these decisions will unleash GLOBALLY.
February 10, 2026 at 3:14 AM
The people behind Project 2025, the 70 plus million who voted for this and the millions who stayed at home during the last election are directly responsible for the climate chaos that these decisions will unleash GLOBALLY.
These issues around Substack have been know for sometime now, like with X just get off it already!
Hosting nazis was one of the reasons I ended up moving my newsletter from Substack to Ghost. Also, IMHO Substack doesn't allow you to have complete control of your own publication.
www.technosphere.earth/new-name-new...
www.theguardian.com/media/2026/f...
www.technosphere.earth/new-name-new...
www.theguardian.com/media/2026/f...
Revealed: How Substack makes money from hosting Nazi newsletters
Exclusive: Site takes a cut of subscriptions to content that promotes far-right ideology, white supremacy and antisemitism
www.theguardian.com
February 9, 2026 at 2:49 PM
These issues around Substack have been know for sometime now, like with X just get off it already!
South Africa’s mineral and petroleum resources minister - a science denier - continues to champion coal. This despite the fact that we are set to pass 2°C in the 2030’s, which will have catastrophic consequences for SA.
These people are a threat to all life on earth
These people are a threat to all life on earth
‘King coal is back’, says Mantashe – The Mail & Guardian
The minister framed coal, not as a relic of the past, but as a critical driver of energy security, industrial activity and employment
mg.co.za
February 8, 2026 at 3:13 AM
South Africa’s mineral and petroleum resources minister - a science denier - continues to champion coal. This despite the fact that we are set to pass 2°C in the 2030’s, which will have catastrophic consequences for SA.
These people are a threat to all life on earth
These people are a threat to all life on earth
USA 2026
Global heating is crossing ~1.5°C and accelerating. CO2 concentrations to date are at ~427 ppm
The US is the largest contributor to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
They are driving global destruction.
Global heating is crossing ~1.5°C and accelerating. CO2 concentrations to date are at ~427 ppm
The US is the largest contributor to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
They are driving global destruction.
It's not just federal lands — the Trump administration is blocking hundreds of wind and solar farms on private property: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/c...
A Trump ‘Blockade’ Is Stalling Hundreds of Wind and Solar Projects Nationwide
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 3:05 AM
USA 2026
Global heating is crossing ~1.5°C and accelerating. CO2 concentrations to date are at ~427 ppm
The US is the largest contributor to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
They are driving global destruction.
Global heating is crossing ~1.5°C and accelerating. CO2 concentrations to date are at ~427 ppm
The US is the largest contributor to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
They are driving global destruction.
Reposted by Peter du Toit
The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
February 6, 2026 at 3:24 PM
The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Electrostate China.
February 6, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Electrostate China.
The modern day USA
Perhaps it was coincidental timing, but nothing underscores the collapse of the Washington Post like firing most of the Pulitzer prize winning #climate reporters the very same day as their opinion pages publishes a BS screed by climate misinformer Bjorn Lomborg.
February 5, 2026 at 11:26 PM
The modern day USA
And despite this, the average for the first 3 days of Feb 2026 above preindustrial is +1.59ºC (ERA5)
What is going to happen when the RONI turns positive later in the year?
#ClimateCrisis
What is going to happen when the RONI turns positive later in the year?
#ClimateCrisis
Sea surface temperature data (ERSST version 6) from January 2026 are in, and here's the latest look at the newly-operational Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or #RONI.
ENSO has dug a little deeper into #LaNiña territory with a RONI value down to -1.03 °C.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/roni/
ENSO has dug a little deeper into #LaNiña territory with a RONI value down to -1.03 °C.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/roni/
February 5, 2026 at 4:57 AM
And despite this, the average for the first 3 days of Feb 2026 above preindustrial is +1.59ºC (ERA5)
What is going to happen when the RONI turns positive later in the year?
#ClimateCrisis
What is going to happen when the RONI turns positive later in the year?
#ClimateCrisis
ICYMI:
“It appears W is launching with a fork of Bluesky's social-app client and account hosting on their own PDS.”
👏🏻
“It appears W is launching with a fork of Bluesky's social-app client and account hosting on their own PDS.”
👏🏻
I Do Not Accept Your TOS - Tynan's Leaflets
W is proof that the ecosystem is working
blog.tynanpurdy.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:11 AM
ICYMI:
“It appears W is launching with a fork of Bluesky's social-app client and account hosting on their own PDS.”
👏🏻
“It appears W is launching with a fork of Bluesky's social-app client and account hosting on their own PDS.”
👏🏻
The fossil fuel burning destruction of life on earth continues unabated.
This suffering and loss was all avoidable. What did the creatures we share this planet with do to deserve this?
This suffering and loss was all avoidable. What did the creatures we share this planet with do to deserve this?
More than 80% of flying fox colony wiped out as January heatwaves kill thousands of bats
Only 180 bats survived intense heat in South Australian town, including 34 babies that carers say face months of recovery
www.theguardian.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:36 AM
The fossil fuel burning destruction of life on earth continues unabated.
This suffering and loss was all avoidable. What did the creatures we share this planet with do to deserve this?
This suffering and loss was all avoidable. What did the creatures we share this planet with do to deserve this?
See Pg. 24 here www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...
February 4, 2026 at 5:38 AM
See Pg. 24 here www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
NEW: The EU’s reversal of the 2035 car CO2 target will create huge uncertainty in the EV market and could cause EV market share to fall between 50-95% by 2035 instead of 100%.
The proposal would also push car CO2 emissions 10% higher than under the current target.
A breakdown of T&E’s analysis 🧵
The proposal would also push car CO2 emissions 10% higher than under the current target.
A breakdown of T&E’s analysis 🧵
February 3, 2026 at 7:00 AM
NEW: The EU’s reversal of the 2035 car CO2 target will create huge uncertainty in the EV market and could cause EV market share to fall between 50-95% by 2035 instead of 100%.
The proposal would also push car CO2 emissions 10% higher than under the current target.
A breakdown of T&E’s analysis 🧵
The proposal would also push car CO2 emissions 10% higher than under the current target.
A breakdown of T&E’s analysis 🧵
Reposted by Peter du Toit
More than 50 heat records were broken across Australia in the last week of January, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
This is climate change, and it can be lethal.
This is climate change, and it can be lethal.
February 3, 2026 at 6:02 AM
More than 50 heat records were broken across Australia in the last week of January, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
This is climate change, and it can be lethal.
This is climate change, and it can be lethal.
Reposted by Peter du Toit
The hydrological situation across a large part of the Iberian Peninsula is alarming, to say the least, and conditions are set to worsen as several powerful atmospheric rivers are forecast; major flooding cannot be ruled out.
February 2, 2026 at 3:46 PM
The hydrological situation across a large part of the Iberian Peninsula is alarming, to say the least, and conditions are set to worsen as several powerful atmospheric rivers are forecast; major flooding cannot be ruled out.
If you live at 34º South then recent research indicates that this region has become a "climate fault line."
Here is the story:
peterdutoit.com/34-s...
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
Here is the story:
peterdutoit.com/34-s...
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
34° South: A New Climate Fault Line
In recent years, when you talk to people living around 34° South they will tell you that something hasn’t been quite right with the climate. Rain still falls, sometimes heavily, yet rivers fail to hold their flows. Dams rise briefly, then slide back. Water stress feels like it is just constantly there. “Average” years no […]
peterdutoit.com
February 2, 2026 at 7:57 AM
If you live at 34º South then recent research indicates that this region has become a "climate fault line."
Here is the story:
peterdutoit.com/34-s...
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
Here is the story:
peterdutoit.com/34-s...
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Methane pollution from US oil and gas infrastructure causes more climate change than the entire economies of all but seven nations on earth.
(This is with methane's climate impacts conservatively evaluated over a 100-year time frame. Evaluated over shorter time frames, methane's impacts are worse.)
(This is with methane's climate impacts conservatively evaluated over a 100-year time frame. Evaluated over shorter time frames, methane's impacts are worse.)
Accounting for methane from natural gas infrastructure in United States greenhouse gas emission estimates
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that United States net greenhouse gas emissions have declined over the last two decades and are no…
www.sciencedirect.com
February 1, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Methane pollution from US oil and gas infrastructure causes more climate change than the entire economies of all but seven nations on earth.
(This is with methane's climate impacts conservatively evaluated over a 100-year time frame. Evaluated over shorter time frames, methane's impacts are worse.)
(This is with methane's climate impacts conservatively evaluated over a 100-year time frame. Evaluated over shorter time frames, methane's impacts are worse.)
As the water crisis continues, the residents in Knysna, South Africa have been asked to reduce consumption to 50L per person per day.
Here is why:
peterdutoit.com/why-...
#Adaptation
Here is why:
peterdutoit.com/why-...
#Adaptation
January 31, 2026 at 4:53 AM
As the water crisis continues, the residents in Knysna, South Africa have been asked to reduce consumption to 50L per person per day.
Here is why:
peterdutoit.com/why-...
#Adaptation
Here is why:
peterdutoit.com/why-...
#Adaptation
Here is what is often not understood: Adaptation has physical limits and when those are reached there is only one option - retreat
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation
‘Feels like a losing battle’: the fight against flooding in Somerset
Emergency pumps are deployed in attempt to stop water inundating homes around River Parrett
www.theguardian.com
January 31, 2026 at 3:58 AM
Here is what is often not understood: Adaptation has physical limits and when those are reached there is only one option - retreat
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Climate change isn’t a future problem; it’s already affecting our food, water, and safety.
Cutting emissions matters, but countries also need to adapt so communities can cope with the impacts happening now.
See how #ClimateAdaptation helps protect lives & livelihoods: https://ow.ly/oksi50Y5itb
Cutting emissions matters, but countries also need to adapt so communities can cope with the impacts happening now.
See how #ClimateAdaptation helps protect lives & livelihoods: https://ow.ly/oksi50Y5itb
January 30, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Climate change isn’t a future problem; it’s already affecting our food, water, and safety.
Cutting emissions matters, but countries also need to adapt so communities can cope with the impacts happening now.
See how #ClimateAdaptation helps protect lives & livelihoods: https://ow.ly/oksi50Y5itb
Cutting emissions matters, but countries also need to adapt so communities can cope with the impacts happening now.
See how #ClimateAdaptation helps protect lives & livelihoods: https://ow.ly/oksi50Y5itb
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Successive storms have submerged farms across the UK. This is going to increase so we must adapt. But adaptation without phase out of fossil fuels risks being pointless.
www.jamesgdyke.info/bbc-radio-4-...
www.jamesgdyke.info/bbc-radio-4-...
BBC Radio 4 discussion on UK farming resilience - James Dyke
Large swathes of UK farmland is underwater - again. Rural flooding is increasing as a result of more periods of intense rainfall. In this section I explained how warming leads to more climate change i...
www.jamesgdyke.info
January 30, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Successive storms have submerged farms across the UK. This is going to increase so we must adapt. But adaptation without phase out of fossil fuels risks being pointless.
www.jamesgdyke.info/bbc-radio-4-...
www.jamesgdyke.info/bbc-radio-4-...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Lots of coverage of the planned new gas power generation in the US. No one asking an important question.
Is there enough gas to power them? No.
Will gas prices go very high if this happens? Yes.
Is that good for datacenters, US manufacturing and US public? Not at all.
Clusterfuck, Inc.
Is there enough gas to power them? No.
Will gas prices go very high if this happens? Yes.
Is that good for datacenters, US manufacturing and US public? Not at all.
Clusterfuck, Inc.
Developer Calls GW Ranch in Pecos County, Texas, the ‘Largest Power Project’ in U.S. - Inside Climate News
Texas’ environmental regulator this week issued the largest air pollution permit in the country to an enormous planned complex of gas power plants and data centers near the oilfields of the Permian Ba...
insideclimatenews.org
January 29, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Lots of coverage of the planned new gas power generation in the US. No one asking an important question.
Is there enough gas to power them? No.
Will gas prices go very high if this happens? Yes.
Is that good for datacenters, US manufacturing and US public? Not at all.
Clusterfuck, Inc.
Is there enough gas to power them? No.
Will gas prices go very high if this happens? Yes.
Is that good for datacenters, US manufacturing and US public? Not at all.
Clusterfuck, Inc.
"A rapid transition is now underway, with models pointing toward a new El Niño event emerging already in Summer and reaching peak intensity during the 2026/2027 [northern hemisphere] Winter season."
La Niña is Dissolving Rapidly, Marking the Start of a Major Atmospheric and Oceanic Shift for 2026
La Niña is now starting to dissolve, signaling a major weather shift for the United States and Canada from Summer into Winter 2026/2027
www.severe-weather.eu
January 29, 2026 at 1:16 PM
"A rapid transition is now underway, with models pointing toward a new El Niño event emerging already in Summer and reaching peak intensity during the 2026/2027 [northern hemisphere] Winter season."
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Quadruple whammy: High exposure, vulnerability, La Niña and human-induced climate change turned very heavy rainfall into a disastrous deluge around the Limpopo, Umbeluzi, Maputo, Incomati, Save and Buzi rivers. - new @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-clim...
January 29, 2026 at 9:54 AM
Quadruple whammy: High exposure, vulnerability, La Niña and human-induced climate change turned very heavy rainfall into a disastrous deluge around the Limpopo, Umbeluzi, Maputo, Incomati, Save and Buzi rivers. - new @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-clim...