Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
November 10, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
November 10, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
November 9, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
NEW from Philippine PAGASA:
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
November 9, 2025 at 6:57 AM
NEW from Philippine PAGASA:
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
Reality check via UNEP latest data:
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
November 9, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Reality check via UNEP latest data:
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
November 8, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
Methane plumes detected over the United States Nov 4, 2025.
November 8, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Methane plumes detected over the United States Nov 4, 2025.
Likelihood of limiting warming below 2°C?
8%
8%
November 8, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Likelihood of limiting warming below 2°C?
8%
8%
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of methane gas since 2009.
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
November 8, 2025 at 2:36 AM
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of methane gas since 2009.
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
This is the way of course.
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
November 8, 2025 at 2:11 AM
This is the way of course.
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Via C3S
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Via C3S
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
NEW from C3S
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
November 7, 2025 at 3:29 AM
NEW from C3S
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
ICYMI:
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
November 6, 2025 at 6:42 PM
ICYMI:
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
Lets give credit where credit is due to @ec.europa.eu and the work of the @eea.europa.eu
The EU were the only ones to decrease emissions AND per capita emissions in 2024
Emissions decrease - 2.1%
Per capita emissions decrease - 2.2%
This must be applauded! 👏🏻
Data: www.unep.org/resources/em...
The EU were the only ones to decrease emissions AND per capita emissions in 2024
Emissions decrease - 2.1%
Per capita emissions decrease - 2.2%
This must be applauded! 👏🏻
Data: www.unep.org/resources/em...
November 5, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Lets give credit where credit is due to @ec.europa.eu and the work of the @eea.europa.eu
The EU were the only ones to decrease emissions AND per capita emissions in 2024
Emissions decrease - 2.1%
Per capita emissions decrease - 2.2%
This must be applauded! 👏🏻
Data: www.unep.org/resources/em...
The EU were the only ones to decrease emissions AND per capita emissions in 2024
Emissions decrease - 2.1%
Per capita emissions decrease - 2.2%
This must be applauded! 👏🏻
Data: www.unep.org/resources/em...
This is where we are headed.
Do you want to know why?
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:
“To date, no NDCs have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Physics be damned. We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Do you want to know why?
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:
“To date, no NDCs have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Physics be damned. We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
November 5, 2025 at 3:53 AM
This is where we are headed.
Do you want to know why?
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:
“To date, no NDCs have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Physics be damned. We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Do you want to know why?
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:
“To date, no NDCs have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Physics be damned. We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
In case you were wondering here is the US position on the 2025 Emissions Gap Report
November 4, 2025 at 4:49 PM
In case you were wondering here is the US position on the 2025 Emissions Gap Report
Humanity’s Score Card 2024:
“Another year of broken records – global GHG emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from 2023 levels.”
New assessed destination ~2.8°C
Data: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
“Another year of broken records – global GHG emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from 2023 levels.”
New assessed destination ~2.8°C
Data: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
November 4, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Humanity’s Score Card 2024:
“Another year of broken records – global GHG emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from 2023 levels.”
New assessed destination ~2.8°C
Data: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
“Another year of broken records – global GHG emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from 2023 levels.”
New assessed destination ~2.8°C
Data: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
The destruction comes just 15 months after Hurricane Beryl impacted more than 50,000 farmers and 11,000 fishers, and caused $4.73 billion Jamaican dollars (about $29 million) in losses, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining.
“We were just about turning the corner.”
“We were just about turning the corner.”
November 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
The destruction comes just 15 months after Hurricane Beryl impacted more than 50,000 farmers and 11,000 fishers, and caused $4.73 billion Jamaican dollars (about $29 million) in losses, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining.
“We were just about turning the corner.”
“We were just about turning the corner.”
While early warning systems can and do protect lives and are absolutely essential going forward, they cannot however protect infrastructure.
How does a community recover from this? Will it ever?
The background global heating for this event is ~1.5°C. Atmospheric CO2 is at 425 ppm.
#ClimateCrisis
How does a community recover from this? Will it ever?
The background global heating for this event is ~1.5°C. Atmospheric CO2 is at 425 ppm.
#ClimateCrisis
November 3, 2025 at 3:42 AM
While early warning systems can and do protect lives and are absolutely essential going forward, they cannot however protect infrastructure.
How does a community recover from this? Will it ever?
The background global heating for this event is ~1.5°C. Atmospheric CO2 is at 425 ppm.
#ClimateCrisis
How does a community recover from this? Will it ever?
The background global heating for this event is ~1.5°C. Atmospheric CO2 is at 425 ppm.
#ClimateCrisis
Now that ERA5's October preliminary data is in, the month ends at +1.54ºC above preindustrial making it the first month since May to go back over 1.5ºC and the 3rd hottest on record.
The 12-month running mean is at 1.5ºC
📝 All the above to be confirmed this coming week.
#ClimateLiteracy
The 12-month running mean is at 1.5ºC
📝 All the above to be confirmed this coming week.
#ClimateLiteracy
November 2, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Now that ERA5's October preliminary data is in, the month ends at +1.54ºC above preindustrial making it the first month since May to go back over 1.5ºC and the 3rd hottest on record.
The 12-month running mean is at 1.5ºC
📝 All the above to be confirmed this coming week.
#ClimateLiteracy
The 12-month running mean is at 1.5ºC
📝 All the above to be confirmed this coming week.
#ClimateLiteracy
This weeks reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis comes from @thecontinent.org
“Beyond the immediate [flood] destruction, we are facing a collapse in farming, broken healthcare, and … children losing their education.”
Story Pg 9: www.thecontinent.org...
“Beyond the immediate [flood] destruction, we are facing a collapse in farming, broken healthcare, and … children losing their education.”
Story Pg 9: www.thecontinent.org...
November 1, 2025 at 3:46 AM
This weeks reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis comes from @thecontinent.org
“Beyond the immediate [flood] destruction, we are facing a collapse in farming, broken healthcare, and … children losing their education.”
Story Pg 9: www.thecontinent.org...
“Beyond the immediate [flood] destruction, we are facing a collapse in farming, broken healthcare, and … children losing their education.”
Story Pg 9: www.thecontinent.org...
Do you see these two things?
From here on in we need to do BOTH these things.
Mitigation and Adaptation are two sides of the SAME coin.
It’s not one or the other it is BOTH.
Which is why the IPCC reporting spends considerable time exploring both in depth.
#ClimateLiteracy
From here on in we need to do BOTH these things.
Mitigation and Adaptation are two sides of the SAME coin.
It’s not one or the other it is BOTH.
Which is why the IPCC reporting spends considerable time exploring both in depth.
#ClimateLiteracy
October 30, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Do you see these two things?
From here on in we need to do BOTH these things.
Mitigation and Adaptation are two sides of the SAME coin.
It’s not one or the other it is BOTH.
Which is why the IPCC reporting spends considerable time exploring both in depth.
#ClimateLiteracy
From here on in we need to do BOTH these things.
Mitigation and Adaptation are two sides of the SAME coin.
It’s not one or the other it is BOTH.
Which is why the IPCC reporting spends considerable time exploring both in depth.
#ClimateLiteracy
birds of a feather as they say
October 30, 2025 at 4:42 AM
birds of a feather as they say
Thank you Prof @williamripple.bsky.social et al for your candour!
“We seek to speak candidly to fellow scientists, policymakers, and humanity at large - we are hurtling toward climate chaos”
“This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction & unsustainable economic systems”
“We seek to speak candidly to fellow scientists, policymakers, and humanity at large - we are hurtling toward climate chaos”
“This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction & unsustainable economic systems”
October 29, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Thank you Prof @williamripple.bsky.social et al for your candour!
“We seek to speak candidly to fellow scientists, policymakers, and humanity at large - we are hurtling toward climate chaos”
“This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction & unsustainable economic systems”
“We seek to speak candidly to fellow scientists, policymakers, and humanity at large - we are hurtling toward climate chaos”
“This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction & unsustainable economic systems”
Another 2025 report and another signal that we are failing at facing the crisis head on.
No one is treating this as an emergency!
WMO: Emissions are still going up.
UNFFFC: Nations have only committed to 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 (35% required to stay below 2ºC)
Now this👇🏻
No one is treating this as an emergency!
WMO: Emissions are still going up.
UNFFFC: Nations have only committed to 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 (35% required to stay below 2ºC)
Now this👇🏻
October 29, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Another 2025 report and another signal that we are failing at facing the crisis head on.
No one is treating this as an emergency!
WMO: Emissions are still going up.
UNFFFC: Nations have only committed to 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 (35% required to stay below 2ºC)
Now this👇🏻
No one is treating this as an emergency!
WMO: Emissions are still going up.
UNFFFC: Nations have only committed to 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 (35% required to stay below 2ºC)
Now this👇🏻