Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
Pinned
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
· Jan 17
Planetary Solvency | Sandy Trust
YouTube video by Planet: Critical
youtu.be
We *really* need to listen to the actuaries who have an intimate understanding of risk management as we face the expanding #ClimateCrisis
Do this ASAP:
1. Read Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk/document-lib...
2. Then listen to @racheldonald.bsky.social’s excellent interview with Sandy Trust
Do this ASAP:
1. Read Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk/document-lib...
2. Then listen to @racheldonald.bsky.social’s excellent interview with Sandy Trust
Reposted by Peter du Toit
As #COP30 officially starts today, a look at how various actors try to obstruct UN climate processes, with @cssn.org's Kari de Pryck and Eduardo Viola drilled.media/podcasts/dri...
S14, Ep10 | The Corruption of COP
Investigating the obstacles to action on climate change.
drilled.media
November 11, 2025 at 1:57 AM
As #COP30 officially starts today, a look at how various actors try to obstruct UN climate processes, with @cssn.org's Kari de Pryck and Eduardo Viola drilled.media/podcasts/dri...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
From net zero to NDCs: your comprehensive #COP30 jargon buster
- Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
- Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
From net zero to NDCs: your comprehensive Cop30 jargon buster
Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:33 AM
From net zero to NDCs: your comprehensive #COP30 jargon buster
- Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
- Brief explanations of 19 key terms likely to be heard at the Cop30 summit in Brazil
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
⚠️ The human cost of broken promises
When ARTsolar's market collapsed, it wasn't just 1 company that suffered:
- 500+ workers lost their jobs
- Suppliers shut down
- Years of skills development and training erased
Read the full investigation ➡️ bit.ly/47sWc3n
@gijn.org @mobilize-za.bsky.social
When ARTsolar's market collapsed, it wasn't just 1 company that suffered:
- 500+ workers lost their jobs
- Suppliers shut down
- Years of skills development and training erased
Read the full investigation ➡️ bit.ly/47sWc3n
@gijn.org @mobilize-za.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 8:12 AM
⚠️ The human cost of broken promises
When ARTsolar's market collapsed, it wasn't just 1 company that suffered:
- 500+ workers lost their jobs
- Suppliers shut down
- Years of skills development and training erased
Read the full investigation ➡️ bit.ly/47sWc3n
@gijn.org @mobilize-za.bsky.social
When ARTsolar's market collapsed, it wasn't just 1 company that suffered:
- 500+ workers lost their jobs
- Suppliers shut down
- Years of skills development and training erased
Read the full investigation ➡️ bit.ly/47sWc3n
@gijn.org @mobilize-za.bsky.social
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Update from the leader of the Green Entente
"Far from a peak, China's gasoline demand is estimated to have fallen 9% in October on the year to 12.5 million tons, with average daily use roughly flat with September..."
China's oil demand is entering structural decline.
China's oil demand is entering structural decline.
EVs put an end to China's usual holiday surge in gasoline use
Tianyu Jiang took a 2,000-km (1,200-mile) road trip this month during China's national holiday week, driving in his electric vehicle from the southwestern Sichuan basin to Beijing for the first time.
www.reuters.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Update from the leader of the Green Entente
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
November 10, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
Stating the obvious.
UNEP (2025): "To date however no NDCs set targets to reduce oil
and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
UNEP (2025): "To date however no NDCs set targets to reduce oil
and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
Rich countries have lost enthusiasm for tackling climate crisis, says Cop30 chief
Brazil’s André Corrêa do Lago says countries should follow China’s lead on clean energy as conference begins
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Stating the obvious.
UNEP (2025): "To date however no NDCs set targets to reduce oil
and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
UNEP (2025): "To date however no NDCs set targets to reduce oil
and gas production or trim inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
Given these odds it would be 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 for local and national governments not to urgently act on adaptation plans to mitigate against the risks associated with crossing 2ºC
There is absolutely not a day to lose.
Also do you have a personal resilience plan?
#Adaptation #ClimateCrisis
There is absolutely not a day to lose.
Also do you have a personal resilience plan?
#Adaptation #ClimateCrisis
Reality check via UNEP latest data:
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 AM
Given these odds it would be 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 for local and national governments not to urgently act on adaptation plans to mitigate against the risks associated with crossing 2ºC
There is absolutely not a day to lose.
Also do you have a personal resilience plan?
#Adaptation #ClimateCrisis
There is absolutely not a day to lose.
Also do you have a personal resilience plan?
#Adaptation #ClimateCrisis
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
November 10, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
November 9, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Developing countries urgently need massive increases in adaptation finance to protect people, livelihoods, and economies from escalating climate change impacts: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025
#AdaptationGap
#AdaptationGap
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Developing countries urgently need massive increases in adaptation finance to protect people, livelihoods, and economies from escalating climate change impacts: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025
#AdaptationGap
#AdaptationGap
NEW from Philippine PAGASA:
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
November 9, 2025 at 6:57 AM
NEW from Philippine PAGASA:
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
"Life-threatening conditions continue over Bicol Region as Uwan continues to move west northwestward over the costal waters of Camarines Norte"
www.pagasa.dost.gov....
#Uwan #Philippines
Reality check via UNEP latest data:
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
November 9, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Reality check via UNEP latest data:
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
A 25% reduction is needed for 2030 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~5.5% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2030)
A 35% reduction is needed for 2035 emissions to be aligned with 2°C
(Translation ~4.2% reduction required PER YEAR 2026-2035)
ICYMI
"Despite the scale of fossil fuel industry presence revealed by this data, COP30 is set to proceed with effectively zero protections against interference [by said fossil lobbyists] in place.
kickbigpollutersout....
"Despite the scale of fossil fuel industry presence revealed by this data, COP30 is set to proceed with effectively zero protections against interference [by said fossil lobbyists] in place.
kickbigpollutersout....
November 8, 2025 at 8:03 AM
ICYMI
"Despite the scale of fossil fuel industry presence revealed by this data, COP30 is set to proceed with effectively zero protections against interference [by said fossil lobbyists] in place.
kickbigpollutersout....
"Despite the scale of fossil fuel industry presence revealed by this data, COP30 is set to proceed with effectively zero protections against interference [by said fossil lobbyists] in place.
kickbigpollutersout....
This all at ~1.5ºC of global heating.
According to the latest UNEP estimate there is a 92% certainty that we will cross 2ºC of heating.
What happens then?
#CllimateCrisis
According to the latest UNEP estimate there is a 92% certainty that we will cross 2ºC of heating.
What happens then?
#CllimateCrisis
The Vietnamese Bach Ma Mountain Peak station recorded one-day rainfall of 1,739 mm - close to the global one-day record and perhaps a new record for the northern hemisphere. It is part of a deluge Viet Nam has seen in October, shattering 35 precip records. e.vnexpress.net/news/news/en...
Vietnam sees 35 rainfall records broken in October - VnExpress International
Vietnam's northern and central regions saw a total of 35 rain records broken in October alone as two storms, Matmo and Fengshen, caused unprecedented downpours.
e.vnexpress.net
November 8, 2025 at 5:30 AM
This all at ~1.5ºC of global heating.
According to the latest UNEP estimate there is a 92% certainty that we will cross 2ºC of heating.
What happens then?
#CllimateCrisis
According to the latest UNEP estimate there is a 92% certainty that we will cross 2ºC of heating.
What happens then?
#CllimateCrisis
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
November 8, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
Likelihood of limiting warming below 2°C?
8%
8%
November 8, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Likelihood of limiting warming below 2°C?
8%
8%
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of methane gas since 2009.
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
November 8, 2025 at 2:36 AM
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of methane gas since 2009.
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
The three regions are:
The Appalachia
The Permian
The Haynesville
Story here: www.eia.gov/todayine...
This is the way of course.
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
November 8, 2025 at 2:11 AM
This is the way of course.
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Look at aviation’s GHG trajectory 2023>2024
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Quasi monthly update of the monthly climate dashboard
Update with:
• preliminary October data
• smaller files for faster loading
• bug fix for overlong plot titles
Some things to look out for, a short 🧵
www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...
Update with:
• preliminary October data
• smaller files for faster loading
• bug fix for overlong plot titles
Some things to look out for, a short 🧵
www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...
November 7, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Quasi monthly update of the monthly climate dashboard
Update with:
• preliminary October data
• smaller files for faster loading
• bug fix for overlong plot titles
Some things to look out for, a short 🧵
www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...
Update with:
• preliminary October data
• smaller files for faster loading
• bug fix for overlong plot titles
Some things to look out for, a short 🧵
www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...
Via C3S
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Via C3S
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
"With the global average temperature having reached 1.48°C in 2023 and 1.60°C in 2024 relative to the pre-industrial level, even the lower end of the predicted range for 2025 would result in a 3-year average above 1.5°C, according to the ERA5 dataset.
#ClimateCrisis
NEW from C3S
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
November 7, 2025 at 3:29 AM
NEW from C3S
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
In the ERA5 dataset Oct 2025 ended at +1.55°C above preindustrial
Current 12-month running mean (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025) is +1.5°C
Full bulletin here: climate.copernicus.e...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
November 6, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
ICYMI:
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
November 6, 2025 at 6:42 PM
ICYMI:
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
“The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C. This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.”—António Guterres
www.un.org/sg/en/conten...
Reposted by Peter du Toit
If we do not seriously move away from burning fossil fuels, hurricanes like Melissa will only become worse. Already today Melissa tested the limits of what preparedness and adaptation can do. These limits are very real for everyone in the Caribbean. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
November 6, 2025 at 9:40 AM
If we do not seriously move away from burning fossil fuels, hurricanes like Melissa will only become worse. Already today Melissa tested the limits of what preparedness and adaptation can do. These limits are very real for everyone in the Caribbean. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...