Peter Holmes
pholmes8.bsky.social
Peter Holmes
@pholmes8.bsky.social

Semi-retired trade economist, Emeritus @ UKTPO Sussex. Posts about Brexit, Freeports, WTO and anything else that catches my fancy. Migrating across from other place. Tweeted as @pholmes8. Blogs with others at https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/blog/ .. more

Economics 44%
Political science 25%

Reposted by Peter Holmes

Nobody can read this from @davidallengreen.bsky.social and not think the UK's unwritten constitution is fit for purpose.

The UK is more exposed to authoritarianism that any established Western democracy.

Wake up!

You need a constitution. Even a revolution.

1
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
27th August 2025 Only good fortune has prevented previous governments from misusing our constitutional arrangements more than they did * The constitution of the United Kingdom provides for two &#82…
davidallengreen.com

Reposted by Peter Holmes

CNN @cnn.com · 2d
A botched redaction in the Epstein files revealed that government attorneys once accused his lawyers of paying over $400,000 to “young female models and actresses” to cover up his criminal activities.
Botched Epstein redactions trace back to Virgin Islands’ 2020 civil racketeering case against estate | CNN Politics
A botched redaction in the Epstein files revealed that government attorneys once accused his lawyers of paying over $400,000 to “young female models and actresses” to cover up his criminal activities
www.cnn.com

Reposted by Peter Holmes

Corporate concentration and resulting state capture is a huge ongoing global trend that's being largely ignored in both policy and trade worlds

Reposted by Peter Holmes

Projection is straight from the Fascist handbook
The New York Times investigated 346 people who donated at least $250,000 to Trump and found that more than half of them (197) have received pardons, jobs, government contracts, special treatment, or favors.
Hundreds of Big Post-Election Donors Have Benefited From Trump’s Return to Office
Well into his second term, the president and his allies have continued aggressively raising money. Many donors have interests before his administration, The Times found.
www.nytimes.com
Fascinating from Tom’s piece

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WOW: The DOJ has DELETED an image from its release of the Epstein files that shows photos of Trump in a drawer.

Yesterday, we noted that this image — file 468 — likely slipped through the cracks while officials were attempting to hide materials pertaining to Trump.

Now, it’s gone.

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I agree with this piece by Luke (Don’t pit YIMBYs against NIMBYs), but I think there is a trade off being ducked here.

If you want new housing to integrate with nature and come with GPs and schools, you either need to make developers pay more, or you need more public investment…
Woman comes to US at age 6. Graduates nursing school. Work permit. No criminal record. Snatched and imprisoned by ICE for 6 months now. About to be forced back to Honduras. A life destroyed and one less nurse. Merry Christmas.

www.nola.com/news/educati...

Reposted by Peter Holmes

"This year, renewables surpassed coal as a source of electricity worldwide, and solar and wind energy grew fast enough to cover the entire increase in global electricity use from January to June"
www.science.org/content/arti...
Science’s 2025 Breakthrough of the Year: The unstoppable rise of renewable energy
Clean energy infrastructure is being deployed with unmatched scale and speed—and China is leading the way
www.science.org

Great fun doing this. My own contribution was largely historic. I argued that the failure of WTO international competition policy negotiations was a great pity. The need is even greater now but the political will even less.
New podcast! Is a level playing field a luxury that we can no longer afford in these days of geopolitical contention? Listen to the discussion with @weforum.org @pholmes8.bsky.social @uktpo.org @sussex.ac.uk @chrishorseman.bsky.social @borderlex.net soundcloud.com/uktpo-tradeb...

Different bits seemed to have different authors. Some parts were a grok word-salad from Trump and Vance's ramblings, while Asia was written up by someone who seemed to know about geography. All grim, but not sure if it was a single vision or a chorus of courtiers beseeching the King.
That's good for US oil companies and, given the scope for huge payoffs, good for Trump and, given that it makes Europe yet more dependent on the US for energy, good for a certain idea of US power, and good for those seeking a broader harmonisation between the US and Russian authoritarianism.

Reposted by Peter Holmes

That's good for US oil companies and, given the scope for huge payoffs, good for Trump and, given that it makes Europe yet more dependent on the US for energy, good for a certain idea of US power, and good for those seeking a broader harmonisation between the US and Russian authoritarianism.
Auditors and new officials have been turning over stones at the body in charge of Teesworks. Turns out the Tees Valley Combined Authority has been lending hundreds of millions of £ to connected orgs, without loan agreements, and those orgs are now struggling to repay

as.ft.com/r/ac457745-4...
Auditors raise red flags at public body run by Ben Houchen
[FREE TO READ] EY said errors included ‘material misstatements’ in latest setback for Conservative metro mayor Lord Houchen
as.ft.com
Most definitively ruled myself out of contention of visiting the US in the next three years by saying what trade folk and I suspect most in UK government know, that any trade deal with Trump could be renounced by him tomorrow. Worry that some are still naive. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
MPs warn that UK agreements with Donald Trump are ‘built on sand’
Exclusive: Health select committee chair says UK government’s ‘naive belief’ Trump is a good faith actor ‘could cost UK taxpayer billions’
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Peter Holmes

New podcast! Is a level playing field a luxury that we can no longer afford in these days of geopolitical contention? Listen to the discussion with @weforum.org @pholmes8.bsky.social @uktpo.org @sussex.ac.uk @chrishorseman.bsky.social @borderlex.net soundcloud.com/uktpo-tradeb...

Reposted by Peter Holmes

Welcome news that the UK will re-join Erasmus, providing life-changing opportunities for students to study across Europe.

We must continue rebuilding our relationship with Europe: secure the youth mobility scheme, re-join the customs union, and begin talks to re-join the EU.

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PS who could possibly be advising the US government on such a disastrous trade policy? Oh, hello there "architect" of Brexit... judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac...
Anti-American Antitrust: How Foreign Governments Target U.S. Businesses
judiciary.house.gov

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Positives: Home fees for EU students, extensions beyond university studies.

It must be a bit bitter for UK students that they still have to pay the higher UK fees while abroad, but even that is way, way better than it was.

The easy mobility and international experience that EU students..

(2/3)

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In the current geopolitical context we cannot afford delays in investments in competitiveness and defence. Therefore the agreement on the next #EUbudget in 2026 is a must.
7News Australia reports that the hero who jumped and disarmed one of the terrorist shooters

His name is Ahmed el-Ahmed

A 43 year old married father of two

He owns a fruit shop in Sutherland

No experience with guns

He was walking past

He has two bullets in his arm

Reposted by Peter Holmes

2025 may be the year that China’s greenhouse gas emissions begin a long-term downward trend whilst #FriedhelmMerz fights or #oilandgas cars and #DonaldTrump calls #ClimateChange a hoax. China shows that we can live without #fossilfuels #FarRight #AfD #CDU #EPP www.newscientist.com/article/2504...
China's carbon emissions may have started to fall in 2025
The world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide is on the cusp of a turning point that could herald the beginning of a global decline in fossil fuel use
www.newscientist.com
His mother was an immigrant.

His wife is an immigrant.

His grandfather and grandmother were immigrants.

Four of his five offspring are the children of immigrants.
Trump: "Immigration and energy are going to destroy Europe."
Is the tide turning? New post on my Brexit & Brexitism Blog. Renewed talk of a customs union may well come to nothing, but rapidly changing geo-politics mean the UK needs urgently to face up to the failure of the entire Brexit ‘strategy’: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/12/is-t...
"In his endorsement of Brexit trade freedoms, Starmer resembles Alec Guinness’s half-mad colonel in The Bridge on the River Kwai, defending an edifice he has forgotten was built for the benefit of the other side."

www.ft.com/content/2d00...
A Brexit survival strategy that shows Starmer’s days are numbered
Labour will need a different leader if it pursues a policy of rejoining the EU customs union or single market
www.ft.com
On the UK-US pharmaceutical deal I'm afraid this does look like two nasty trends coming together to make a very bad agreement for the UK - namely Whitehall power to make deals with no scrutiny, and companies working with countries to coerce others. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
What will be the cost of Keir Starmer’s new medicines deal with Donald Trump? British lives | Aditya Chakrabortty
More than £3bn that could have been used for UK patients will go to big pharma for its branded products, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty
www.theguardian.com

But he concludes:
"So I think UK politicians will, sooner or later, catch up with the public and decide to move closer to the EU, even if neither Starmer nor Badenoch is trying to lead us there."
Trump deals worth what?
Home - Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
FT.com

Reposted by Peter Holmes

Also, virtually nobody in the party (MPs or members) truly believes it apart from a few crackpot Blue Labour types.
Labour’s shift away from “immigration is good but it needs to be managed” to “it is bad” is a gift to essentially everyone they compete with, because it means that they don’t have the right position to be able to attack *anyone*.
I'm sorry, but these attacks are just not going to convince Green-curious voters, because Labour is so visibly out of step with those voters' core values