Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
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sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
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After changes at No 10, is the Prime Minister now on borrowed time? My Eastern Eye column this week on suggests Keir Starmer probably does have 3 months in office to persuade his Ministers & MPs against changing leaders, but surviving beyond May look more perilous.
www.easterneye.biz/keir-starmer...
I think this will and should be a pressure point from MPs and civic society
February 12, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Reposted by Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
Our @sundersays.bsky.social on BBC News discussing Jim Ratcliffe’s use of ‘colonised’ to talk about uk immigration
February 12, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Reposted by Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
Very pleased to have a chapter with Avner de-Shalit published in this new collection edited by Alice Baderin and David Miller: Why Political Theory Needs Social Science.

global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:54 AM
The letter
February 12, 2026 at 11:44 AM
70 parliamentarians have written to the Home Office saying the settlement proposals are unfair & need a significant rethink
February 12, 2026 at 11:44 AM
I thought it was a bad + toxic mistake to make that an argument about votes, but it shows Nadhim Zahawi's journey has spanned almost all points of the spectrum of views on immigration
www.opendemocracy.net/en/shine-a-l...
February 12, 2026 at 11:35 AM
A decade earlier, Zahawi wanted a regularisation amnesty from David Cameron (as did Boris Johnson)

I thought he was confused + mistaken to make his argument for this as a Tory electoral pitch to ethnic minorities, rather than a pragmatic fix where can't remove
www.opendemocracy.net/en/shine-a-l...
One Tory's plea for undocumented workers
Can Nadhim Zahawi's proposal for an immigration amnesty work?
www.opendemocracy.net
February 12, 2026 at 11:33 AM
Zahawi championing Boris 2.0 post-Truss was disappeared down the memory hole on publication
www.theguardian.com/media/2022/o...
Telegraph quickly deletes pro-Boris Johnson article after he quits Tory race
Paper published Nadhim Zahawi article online just as news came through of Johnson’s withdrawal
www.theguardian.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:29 AM
Zahawi supported Johnson contesting the post-Truss leadership, hours before he quit the race, so Zahawi did not see the 2019-22 immigration record as a dealbreaker at all.
February 12, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Zahawi is silent or defending "colonised by immigrant" and promoting a 90% migrant society (albeit where the migrants have no civic or political rights) as the model of good immigration!
February 12, 2026 at 11:24 AM
Jim Ratcliffe is not a party colleague of Nadhim Zahawi's

No barrier at all to saying "colonised" is wrong language, but NZ thinks let's talk about contribution, migration, tax and welfare as the substance

Partisanship sees NZ calls critics of false claims + language of colonisation "scoundrels"
February 12, 2026 at 11:21 AM
Context of Zahawi calling Farage's agenda frightening. Zahawi often spoke about his experience of migration + integration, and against racism. It is to be hoped he will speak again against racism, but he has shifted after changing parties his view on language + boundaries
bsky.app/profile/sund...
Nigel Farage in March 2015 called for scrapping of all anti-discrimination legislation (on the grounds we had made so much progress we did not need it any of it anymore) in this interview with Trevor Phillips

2015: Farage (UKIP) u-turned within 24 hours on that

Changed back to repeat it, 2024
February 12, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Zahawi said he would be "frightened" to live in a Britain led by Nigel Farage, when Farage said Reform would abolish the anti-discrimination laws in 2015 (before u-turning the next day). This is again Farage's policy.
February 12, 2026 at 11:16 AM
Former Conservative Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi defends the claim that the UK has been colonised by immigrants.

Zahawi often criticised this kind of language before he joined Reform

Zahawi is arguing about net contributors - and ignoring the "colonised" comment about takeover + subjugation.
February 12, 2026 at 11:14 AM
Reeves (economy), Streeting (NHS), Mahmood (home affairs) all challenged by the issue they have to deal with in government, but probably in subtly different ways.
February 12, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is 12-36 (-24) with the general public - and 17-26 (-9) with supporters of her own party.

But 52% don't know as not 6 months in yet to higher profile role.
February 12, 2026 at 11:07 AM
The return of Trump in the US looks more risk than gain to Reform in the UK
February 12, 2026 at 11:05 AM
Farage has this "thinkability" paradox
- He needs to look like he could win to do well: it is thinkable he is the next PM
- Being able to be the next PM mobilises anti-Farage sentiment, nationally and often in specific localities

27% or 33% could be oceans apart in outcome

bsky.app/profile/sund...
'Could Farage be our next prime minister? Reform can now claim it is far from unthinkable. But that very ‘thinkability’ may prove Farage’s biggest barrier once voters need to choose a government, given his polarising reputation and Brexit’s fading appeal'.
www.easterneye.biz/uk-local-ele...
Why local elections victory raises the stakes for Reform
Party's populist policies may not work in government, says expert
www.easterneye.biz
February 12, 2026 at 11:04 AM
The boost came from strong results in the local elections in May, but has not maintained that in last 3-6 months
February 12, 2026 at 11:01 AM
There are many factors: salience of foreign policy/defence, salience of economy don't help Reform; who want highest possible of salience of immigration and asylum [without damaging themselves over extreme links + racism]
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Political favourability ratings, February 2026 | YouGov
Opinion towards Keir Starmer recovers following leadership crisis
yougov.co.uk
February 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Farage was 30-62 on Nov 18th (-32) and is now 27-64 (-37)

- No significant gain from defections of Jenrick + Braverman
- Some predicted school racism allegations (18.11) would be good for him (victim of media witchhunt): no sign of that boost! Does tend to reinforce existing views, more than shift
February 12, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Reposted by Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
Headline as requested.
February 12, 2026 at 10:22 AM
I think we are agreeing here!
February 12, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Sure: the fairness perceptions are contested, as are pace/integration + identity questions, so it is not simply a "select contributors" calculation of picking who we want in an instrumental way
February 12, 2026 at 10:32 AM
Yes, good point about "curb". "Its one thing to debate getting the numbers right' would be better. [Can add, and we have brought them down because they were up at record highs]
February 12, 2026 at 10:30 AM