Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "The British General Election of 2024" & "Brexitland". All takes, good & bad, are mine only.
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Author of "The British General Election of 2024" & "Brexitland". All takes, good & bad, are mine only.
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Pinned
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
· Jan 14
Client Challenge
link.springer.com
New Year, new election book, new discount code! "The British General Election of 2024" is now available to buy, and if you order direct from the publisher's website, you can claim a 20% discount by entering the code PALAUT - here's the link to the book page: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
More graph crimes..."survey of local residents" apparently. No details. Highly unlikely to be proper poll. This by-election has certainly been a powerful illustration of the value of good quality, independent polling and MRPs. When there's a vacuum parties fill it with all sorts of nonsense
🚨 1 WEEK LEFT
🟩 GREENS CAN WIN! We're SO CLOSE!
📢 There's phone-banking from home, leafleting, door-knocking, letter writing + bundling and election day!
👇 Please sign up + share the link
gorton-denton.greenparty.org.uk#action-days
🟩 GREENS CAN WIN! We're SO CLOSE!
📢 There's phone-banking from home, leafleting, door-knocking, letter writing + bundling and election day!
👇 Please sign up + share the link
gorton-denton.greenparty.org.uk#action-days
February 19, 2026 at 7:32 PM
More graph crimes..."survey of local residents" apparently. No details. Highly unlikely to be proper poll. This by-election has certainly been a powerful illustration of the value of good quality, independent polling and MRPs. When there's a vacuum parties fill it with all sorts of nonsense
Took them an awfully long time to take this step after the posts first emerged
EXCLUSIVE: Adam Mitula, Reform UK’s interim campaign manager in Tameside, has been assisting Matt Goodwin's Gorton and Denton by-election campaign
Reform UK suspends by-election campaign activist over ‘antisemitic and misogynistic’ posts
EXCLUSIVE: Adam Mitula, Reform UK’s interim campaign manager in Tameside, has been assisting Matt Goodwin's Gorton and Denton by-election campaign
www.jewishnews.co.uk
February 19, 2026 at 7:29 PM
Took them an awfully long time to take this step after the posts first emerged
Reposted by Rob Ford
Thank you for all the support and reposts!
We've gotten a steady stream of inquiries and submissions for this competition, but also some ANXIETY that the window will close before people have a chance to submit.
We're nowhere near that! We'll update on here when we've allocated 50% of the capacity.
We've gotten a steady stream of inquiries and submissions for this competition, but also some ANXIETY that the window will close before people have a chance to submit.
We're nowhere near that! We'll update on here when we've allocated 50% of the capacity.
🎺 Call for proposals 🎺
1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment
2️⃣ run a novel experiment
on repdata.com
3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies
4️⃣ publish your study
details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_...
applications open Feb 1
please repost!
1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment
2️⃣ run a novel experiment
on repdata.com
3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies
4️⃣ publish your study
details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_...
applications open Feb 1
please repost!
February 19, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Thank you for all the support and reposts!
We've gotten a steady stream of inquiries and submissions for this competition, but also some ANXIETY that the window will close before people have a chance to submit.
We're nowhere near that! We'll update on here when we've allocated 50% of the capacity.
We've gotten a steady stream of inquiries and submissions for this competition, but also some ANXIETY that the window will close before people have a chance to submit.
We're nowhere near that! We'll update on here when we've allocated 50% of the capacity.
Incredible nonsense 'data' scenes....
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
On a scale of 1-10, where 10 is 'very legit', how legit is this projection? I'm assuming roughly 1 billion.
On a scale of 1-10, where 10 is 'very legit', how legit is this projection? I'm assuming roughly 1 billion.
February 19, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Incredible nonsense 'data' scenes....
Reposted by Rob Ford
It is notable that Andrew has been arrested for "misconduct in public office", which is precisely what the US Supreme Court decided no American president can ever be charged with.
So SCOTUS, with its fabricated-out-of-thin-air immunity doctrine, has actually made American presidents less accountable than LITERAL royalty.
Breaking News: Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly known as Prince Andrew, was arrested in Britain on suspicion of misconduct in public office over his links to Jeffrey Epstein, the BBC said.
February 19, 2026 at 12:22 PM
It is notable that Andrew has been arrested for "misconduct in public office", which is precisely what the US Supreme Court decided no American president can ever be charged with.
Reposted by Rob Ford
“I remember the first time I saw Andy…”
February 19, 2026 at 12:18 PM
“I remember the first time I saw Andy…”
Reposted by Rob Ford
📆 We're just one week away from the Gorton and Denton by-election 📆
According to @robfordmancs.bsky.social, it's "a three cornered fight in a seat of two halves"
🤓 For a short & sharp analysis of the constituency, what might happen and what's at stake, read this 👇
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
According to @robfordmancs.bsky.social, it's "a three cornered fight in a seat of two halves"
🤓 For a short & sharp analysis of the constituency, what might happen and what's at stake, read this 👇
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
Gorton and Denton: A three cornered fight in a seat of two halves - UK in a changing Europe
Ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday 26 February, Rob Ford analyses the prospects for Labour, Reform and the Green...
ukandeu.ac.uk
February 19, 2026 at 12:20 PM
📆 We're just one week away from the Gorton and Denton by-election 📆
According to @robfordmancs.bsky.social, it's "a three cornered fight in a seat of two halves"
🤓 For a short & sharp analysis of the constituency, what might happen and what's at stake, read this 👇
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
According to @robfordmancs.bsky.social, it's "a three cornered fight in a seat of two halves"
🤓 For a short & sharp analysis of the constituency, what might happen and what's at stake, read this 👇
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
If you're interested in the Gorton & Denton by-election but find my Swingometer substacks on it a bit rambling, you may enjoy this - a snappy digest of what's at stake and what might happen which I've done for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
Gorton and Denton: A three cornered fight in a seat of two halves - UK in a changing Europe
Ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday 26 February, Rob Ford analyses the prospects for Labour, Reform and the Green...
ukandeu.ac.uk
February 19, 2026 at 11:07 AM
If you're interested in the Gorton & Denton by-election but find my Swingometer substacks on it a bit rambling, you may enjoy this - a snappy digest of what's at stake and what might happen which I've done for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/gorton-and-d...
Disappointing to see the green candidate neither admit error not apologise here for presenting quotes of mine on a misleading way on her leaflets (I have still had no contact from the local Green Party though the national party did admit error and apologise).
Leaflet wars have made it to the podcast world. From about 10 minutes in.
shows.acast.com/the-manchest...
shows.acast.com/the-manchest...
Byelection special: Hannah Spencer talks millionaire marriage, Patricia Clegg, and Greens in the north | The Manchester Briefing from The Mill
shows.acast.com
February 19, 2026 at 10:02 AM
Disappointing to see the green candidate neither admit error not apologise here for presenting quotes of mine on a misleading way on her leaflets (I have still had no contact from the local Green Party though the national party did admit error and apologise).
Reposted by Rob Ford
Elon Musk is talking about Nigel Farage's Reform Party: he says Reform are trying to eradicate white people in Britain.
He is a radicalised + increasingly racist lunatic - obsessed with theories of white racial extinction + promoting the idea of civil war in Britain
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
He is a radicalised + increasingly racist lunatic - obsessed with theories of white racial extinction + promoting the idea of civil war in Britain
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
February 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM
Elon Musk is talking about Nigel Farage's Reform Party: he says Reform are trying to eradicate white people in Britain.
He is a radicalised + increasingly racist lunatic - obsessed with theories of white racial extinction + promoting the idea of civil war in Britain
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
He is a radicalised + increasingly racist lunatic - obsessed with theories of white racial extinction + promoting the idea of civil war in Britain
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
Reposted by Rob Ford
I do love that the trend in the UK, specifically, is young men rapidly swung left from 2010 onwards, it’s just that young women swung left even more rapidly
I've lost count of the number of times I've had to pull out this chart from the FT.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
February 19, 2026 at 9:03 AM
I do love that the trend in the UK, specifically, is young men rapidly swung left from 2010 onwards, it’s just that young women swung left even more rapidly
Reposted by Rob Ford
I've lost count of the number of times I've had to pull out this chart from the FT.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
February 19, 2026 at 8:50 AM
I've lost count of the number of times I've had to pull out this chart from the FT.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
It's not really true to say young men are moving right in the developed world overall, let along within the UK.
Just like the mythical Reform surge with teenagers, it's a meme that just will not die.
Reposted by Rob Ford
"The Green Party has a habit of supporting things in principle and opposing them in practice. It wants environmentally friendly transport, then opposes HS2. It wants clean energy, but opposes wind farms locally. It supports affordable housing, but opposes almost every building project it sees."
READ MORE
Green councillors are making North London housing even more expensive
capx.co
February 16, 2026 at 5:10 PM
"The Green Party has a habit of supporting things in principle and opposing them in practice. It wants environmentally friendly transport, then opposes HS2. It wants clean energy, but opposes wind farms locally. It supports affordable housing, but opposes almost every building project it sees."
Reposted by Rob Ford
People are still replying to this so I might as well RT again for people to read. Come for the row, stay for the cost of living in Islington stats!
"The Green Party has a habit of supporting things in principle and opposing them in practice. It wants environmentally friendly transport, then opposes HS2. It wants clean energy, but opposes wind farms locally. It supports affordable housing, but opposes almost every building project it sees."
READ MORE
Green councillors are making North London housing even more expensive
capx.co
February 19, 2026 at 9:02 AM
People are still replying to this so I might as well RT again for people to read. Come for the row, stay for the cost of living in Islington stats!
Reposted by Rob Ford
You could say that they fell out over……the right to arm bears
Signs that your country needs an electoral threshold
February 19, 2026 at 8:20 AM
You could say that they fell out over……the right to arm bears
Reposted by Rob Ford
Okay, this is quite outstanding from Bedford Council.
February 19, 2026 at 8:26 AM
Okay, this is quite outstanding from Bedford Council.
Reposted by Rob Ford
New results from @natcen.bsky.social's British Social Attitudes survey show UK attitudes towards immigration are more divided than in the recent past. It's now a clean split where a third of people perceive it as 'bad', a third as 'good,' and a third have a neutral attitude towards it.
February 13, 2026 at 9:19 AM
New results from @natcen.bsky.social's British Social Attitudes survey show UK attitudes towards immigration are more divided than in the recent past. It's now a clean split where a third of people perceive it as 'bad', a third as 'good,' and a third have a neutral attitude towards it.
Leaflet wars now going large
February 18, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Leaflet wars now going large
Restore is to Reform as UKIP was to Conservative
On any issue where Reform end up having to recognise any real world realities - eg Jenrick saying they would keep the OBR and Bank of England - Lowe will be able to run on fantastical authoritarian talking points, because he is not constrained at all by a hypothetical government existing
February 18, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Restore is to Reform as UKIP was to Conservative
Fascinating - Reform lose to every other option, Lib Dems beat every other option, Greens beat every other option except Lib Dem
🧵/ With tactical voting ever more common, who do voters back when only two parties have a chance in their seat?
Con 31% v Ref 24%
Lab 35% v Ref 31%
Lab 29% v Con 28%
LD 41% v Ref 29%
LD 34% v Con 26%
LD 29% v Lab 21%
LD 26% v Grn 25%
Grn 42% v Ref 27%
Grn 37% v Con 29%
Grn 30% v Lab 20%
Con 31% v Ref 24%
Lab 35% v Ref 31%
Lab 29% v Con 28%
LD 41% v Ref 29%
LD 34% v Con 26%
LD 29% v Lab 21%
LD 26% v Grn 25%
Grn 42% v Ref 27%
Grn 37% v Con 29%
Grn 30% v Lab 20%
February 18, 2026 at 9:55 AM
Fascinating - Reform lose to every other option, Lib Dems beat every other option, Greens beat every other option except Lib Dem
Reposted by Rob Ford
Matt Goodwin's candidacy in Denton & Gorton "illuminates the balance of risks & rewards for Reform, presenting itself as a potential govt, in embracing the sharper edges of the online right." Our @sundersays.bsky.social for @thenewworldmag.bsky.social
www.thenewworld.co.uk/sunder-katwa...
www.thenewworld.co.uk/sunder-katwa...
The future of Reform rests on Matt Goodwin’s by-election
Lose in Gorton & Denton and the party may be driven even further right
www.thenewworld.co.uk
February 18, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Matt Goodwin's candidacy in Denton & Gorton "illuminates the balance of risks & rewards for Reform, presenting itself as a potential govt, in embracing the sharper edges of the online right." Our @sundersays.bsky.social for @thenewworldmag.bsky.social
www.thenewworld.co.uk/sunder-katwa...
www.thenewworld.co.uk/sunder-katwa...
Reposted by Rob Ford
"When it comes to science, the White House could not have crafted a more effective America Last policy."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... by
@anjahuja.bsky.social
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... by
@anjahuja.bsky.social
Brain drain is undermining America’s scientific edge
Policy decisions grounded in Maga talking points are helping to fuel a PhD exodus from government
giftarticle.ft.com
February 18, 2026 at 7:46 AM
"When it comes to science, the White House could not have crafted a more effective America Last policy."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... by
@anjahuja.bsky.social
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... by
@anjahuja.bsky.social
Reposted by Rob Ford
Glad to see a piece that is less panicked about projected population decline
www.ft.com/content/0ae2...
www.ft.com/content/0ae2...
The truth about population decline
Arguments about the dangers of falling fertility deserve much closer scrutiny
www.ft.com
February 18, 2026 at 7:24 AM
Glad to see a piece that is less panicked about projected population decline
www.ft.com/content/0ae2...
www.ft.com/content/0ae2...
Reposted by Rob Ford
Hello, running a half marathon at the end of the year for Alzheimer’s Research UK. Any and all donations gratefully received www.justgiving.com/page/duncan-...
I'm running The Royal Parks Half Marathon 2026
Help Duncan Robinson raise money to support Alzheimer's Research UK
www.justgiving.com
February 17, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Hello, running a half marathon at the end of the year for Alzheimer’s Research UK. Any and all donations gratefully received www.justgiving.com/page/duncan-...
Reposted by Rob Ford
These @ippr.org principles make sense as tests for the consultation response. Significant changes would be needed to meet them
www.ippr.org/articles/far...
www.ippr.org/articles/far...
Far from settled: The government’s ‘earned settlement’ consultation | IPPR
While the measures have received surprisingly little attention compared to some of the government’s other eye-catching asylum reforms, their impacts will b
www.ippr.org
February 17, 2026 at 1:21 PM
These @ippr.org principles make sense as tests for the consultation response. Significant changes would be needed to meet them
www.ippr.org/articles/far...
www.ippr.org/articles/far...