Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Funny the things proof reading reminds you of - it is less than two years ago that Nigel Farage was appearing on 'I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!'
November 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Funny the things proof reading reminds you of - it is less than two years ago that Nigel Farage was appearing on 'I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!'
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 AM
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
While I broadly agree I think (perhaps cynically) that there is (now and always) a large “can’t someone else pay for it?” tribe in the Labour membership which is easily attracted to “make the rich pay for all the good things args”. Isn’t just Green curious who like avoiding hard options
November 8, 2025 at 12:09 PM
While I broadly agree I think (perhaps cynically) that there is (now and always) a large “can’t someone else pay for it?” tribe in the Labour membership which is easily attracted to “make the rich pay for all the good things args”. Isn’t just Green curious who like avoiding hard options
We illustrated Johnson’s rise with the following cartoons
November 5, 2025 at 8:25 PM
We illustrated Johnson’s rise with the following cartoons
Did he read the bit in Lord of The Rings where a creepy toxic guy filled the local ruler’s head with idiotic poison and wrecked everything in that kingdom until the king came to his senses and chucked the toxic creep out?
October 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Did he read the bit in Lord of The Rings where a creepy toxic guy filled the local ruler’s head with idiotic poison and wrecked everything in that kingdom until the king came to his senses and chucked the toxic creep out?
Turns out “pantsuit deportations” is not in fact a winning formula
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Turns out “pantsuit deportations” is not in fact a winning formula
Smaller houses/flats in London, smaller Pringles tubes elsewhere?
October 28, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Smaller houses/flats in London, smaller Pringles tubes elsewhere?
Lesson 5 - The "legacy parties" may not like these dramatic changes, but voters seem to. Turnout was up in Caerphilly, a highly unusual development for a by-election, but part of a trend - turnout was unusually high in the Runcorn by-election and in many recent local by-elections
October 27, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Lesson 5 - The "legacy parties" may not like these dramatic changes, but voters seem to. Turnout was up in Caerphilly, a highly unusual development for a by-election, but part of a trend - turnout was unusually high in the Runcorn by-election and in many recent local by-elections
Lesson 4: The Conservatives are dying in Wales. So is traditional two party politics. Just 13% of Caerphilly voters back Labour or Tories *combined* - a fifty point drop on the previous contest well below the previous all time low. The Tories 2% was less than Screaming Lord Sutch managed in 1995.
October 27, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Lesson 4: The Conservatives are dying in Wales. So is traditional two party politics. Just 13% of Caerphilly voters back Labour or Tories *combined* - a fifty point drop on the previous contest well below the previous all time low. The Tories 2% was less than Screaming Lord Sutch managed in 1995.
Lesson 3: Labour are on life support. This was the second largest by-election drop for the party (only Blaenau Gwent, where they were defeated by a disgruntled former MP, saw a bigger fall) and the second lowest share (beaten only by Brecon & Radnorshire, traditionally v weak for Lab)
October 27, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Lesson 3: Labour are on life support. This was the second largest by-election drop for the party (only Blaenau Gwent, where they were defeated by a disgruntled former MP, saw a bigger fall) and the second lowest share (beaten only by Brecon & Radnorshire, traditionally v weak for Lab)
Lesson 2: Reform are still on the rise. Farage and his party did a dire job at expectations management (not for the first time) meaning the result was framed as a failure. But Reforms' 36% share and 34% rise shatters the records for previous radical rt performance in Wales
October 27, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Lesson 2: Reform are still on the rise. Farage and his party did a dire job at expectations management (not for the first time) meaning the result was framed as a failure. But Reforms' 36% share and 34% rise shatters the records for previous radical rt performance in Wales
Lesson 1: Plaid are now in pole position for next year's Senedd contest. They won comfortably in a former Labour heartland area, with their second highest ever vote share in a Welsh by-election since 1945 (the only better performance came in Ynys Mon, where a majority speak Welsh)
October 27, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Lesson 1: Plaid are now in pole position for next year's Senedd contest. They won comfortably in a former Labour heartland area, with their second highest ever vote share in a Welsh by-election since 1945 (the only better performance came in Ynys Mon, where a majority speak Welsh)
People sometimes ask me why I tend to be instinctively sceptical of the good faith of objections to development, anmd instinctively prone to see our current planning system as damaging. Here's a paragraph providing a compelling example of why I think this way:
October 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM
People sometimes ask me why I tend to be instinctively sceptical of the good faith of objections to development, anmd instinctively prone to see our current planning system as damaging. Here's a paragraph providing a compelling example of why I think this way:
“The pink balls represent fellow Conservatives so embarrassed or ashamed by my BNP plus plus deportation policy they pretend it doesn’t exist. The black balls represent anonymous Twitter frogs and Vikings cheering me on.”
October 23, 2025 at 1:41 PM
“The pink balls represent fellow Conservatives so embarrassed or ashamed by my BNP plus plus deportation policy they pretend it doesn’t exist. The black balls represent anonymous Twitter frogs and Vikings cheering me on.”
British social attitudes 2024 on attitudes to ILR
October 23, 2025 at 1:33 PM
British social attitudes 2024 on attitudes to ILR
Figure looks to me to be around twice that found in official statistics which are not hard to source (I already sent Larry the link).He has been radicalised by a statistic wildly at odds with reality. Twitter brain is a remarkable thing.
October 23, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Figure looks to me to be around twice that found in official statistics which are not hard to source (I already sent Larry the link).He has been radicalised by a statistic wildly at odds with reality. Twitter brain is a remarkable thing.
No. Arrivals on latest ONS figures are 948k (down a third), and departures are up so net migration is 431k (down almost 50%). This is latest ONS release which took 5 seconds to find on Google Larry. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
October 23, 2025 at 6:50 AM
No. Arrivals on latest ONS figures are 948k (down a third), and departures are up so net migration is 431k (down almost 50%). This is latest ONS release which took 5 seconds to find on Google Larry. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
This, in particular,should chime with any centre right voter or politician. We might add that Lam’s desire to torch previously agreed permanent residence rules will make life very difficult for millions of British citizens settled long term abroad, who rely on foreign govt’s abiding by such rules.
October 21, 2025 at 7:45 AM
This, in particular,should chime with any centre right voter or politician. We might add that Lam’s desire to torch previously agreed permanent residence rules will make life very difficult for millions of British citizens settled long term abroad, who rely on foreign govt’s abiding by such rules.
Honestly lads it’s not hard. This is a 97% position Ed Davey is agreeing with here. This should be easy mode politics.
October 20, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Honestly lads it’s not hard. This is a 97% position Ed Davey is agreeing with here. This should be easy mode politics.
“They are stealing our homeland, we have a right to take it back by force.” This kind of argument is now made constantly on Twitter on any immigration discussion.
October 19, 2025 at 7:15 PM
“They are stealing our homeland, we have a right to take it back by force.” This kind of argument is now made constantly on Twitter on any immigration discussion.