David Henig
@davidheniguk.bsky.social
Trade wonk, Brexit bore, globalisation defender, music lover, cricketer, gardener, supporter of mediocre football teams, who knows where the time goes?
Pinned
The New World of Trade – How 40 Years of Change Brought Globalisation Without Trust
Making sense of daily trade policy turbulence has become a major challenge. President Trump is just one part of a complex ever-changing picture.Stop the world to catch up is an understandable respons
ecipe.org
"How 40 years of change brought globalisation without trust" - my latest long read (based on a talk given this morning) seems immediately relevant given further US-China tensions over global supply chains.
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
We wait to see what "joint statements on working methods and on a financial contribution" may be.
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
EU(27) moving towards adoption of mandates for negotiations on SPS and ETS agreements with the UK.
data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document...
data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document...
November 11, 2025 at 7:56 AM
We wait to see what "joint statements on working methods and on a financial contribution" may be.
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
But once again, from the point of view of a struggling EU, does it want partners or victims?
Perish the thought that the US or EU would ever try to weaponise trade... and just to point out again that the Chinese have historic reasons for not fully trusting the beneficence of traders from elsewhere...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Nexperia row shows how China is weaponising trade – and winning
Experts say Brussels must stand up against Beijing using supplies of vital chips and minerals as ‘sword of Damocles’
www.theguardian.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Perish the thought that the US or EU would ever try to weaponise trade... and just to point out again that the Chinese have historic reasons for not fully trusting the beneficence of traders from elsewhere...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by David Henig
I also wish people would spell out the alternative proposal here.
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 9:53 PM
I also wish people would spell out the alternative proposal here.
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
I don't think he's taking the prospect of Supreme Court defeat too well...
Trump claims the U.S. would need to repay $2 trillion if the Supreme Court overturned his tariffs. He says that covers "tariff revenue and investments," which presumably includes the deals from Japan, Korea, etc. Credible estimates of tariff revenue are less than 10% of that.
November 10, 2025 at 8:29 PM
I don't think he's taking the prospect of Supreme Court defeat too well...
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 7:18 PM
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
One can only imagine the screams of betrayal in Brussels if the UK was backtracking on the common understanding agreed in May. But it is an EU struggling to find any commonality in trade policy largely due to extreme French positions (on every subject). www.ft.com/content/03ef...
Von der Leyen dodged Starmer request for meeting on EU money demands
European Commission president had ‘scheduling’ issues at COP30 summit in Brazil and did not see the UK premier
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
One can only imagine the screams of betrayal in Brussels if the UK was backtracking on the common understanding agreed in May. But it is an EU struggling to find any commonality in trade policy largely due to extreme French positions (on every subject). www.ft.com/content/03ef...
Discovered a few more grey hairs earlier, and at what point am I allowed to go full mid-life-crisis blaming everyone for everything and insisting life was better in 1978?
November 10, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Discovered a few more grey hairs earlier, and at what point am I allowed to go full mid-life-crisis blaming everyone for everything and insisting life was better in 1978?
Energy costs for AI do seem to be a big issue not being widely discussed.
Alternatively the UK planning system could once more be to blame.
Alternatively the UK planning system could once more be to blame.
Data-center projects that “may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity.”
@bloomberg.com @weisenthal.bsky.social $NVDA
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com @weisenthal.bsky.social $NVDA
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 10, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Energy costs for AI do seem to be a big issue not being widely discussed.
Alternatively the UK planning system could once more be to blame.
Alternatively the UK planning system could once more be to blame.
Reposted by David Henig
Me, for @ukandeu.bsky.social, on why we might be going back to talking about money in the UK-EU relationship
@oupolitics.bsky.social @openuniversity.bsky.social
@oupolitics.bsky.social @openuniversity.bsky.social
💶"But as the UK has started to develop new links with the EU, so too has it generated new financial obligations."
✍️ @simonusherwood.bsky.social explains financial flows between the UK and the EU since the UK’s withdrawal & how they may be affected by the UK-EU reset
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-sleeping...
✍️ @simonusherwood.bsky.social explains financial flows between the UK and the EU since the UK’s withdrawal & how they may be affected by the UK-EU reset
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-sleeping...
The sleeping dog of UK-EU finances - UK in a changing Europe
Simon Usherwood explains financial flows between the UK and the EU since the UK's withdrawal and how they may be affected by the UK-EU reset.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Me, for @ukandeu.bsky.social, on why we might be going back to talking about money in the UK-EU relationship
@oupolitics.bsky.social @openuniversity.bsky.social
@oupolitics.bsky.social @openuniversity.bsky.social
Reposted by David Henig
New @nberpubs: "From Asia, With Skills" www.nber.org/papers/w34449
"talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy."
"talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy."
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 AM
New @nberpubs: "From Asia, With Skills" www.nber.org/papers/w34449
"talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy."
"talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy."
But still not a trade superpower as we are seeing... which should provide a good sense of what needs to happen, and that isn't to retreat to protection.
The EU is a world leader in trade.
In 2024, it was the:
🥇 largest trader in services
🥈 second largest trader in goods
🥇 largest investor in other countries
More facts and figures 👉 link.europa.eu/yDpDVd
In 2024, it was the:
🥇 largest trader in services
🥈 second largest trader in goods
🥇 largest investor in other countries
More facts and figures 👉 link.europa.eu/yDpDVd
The EU’s role in global trade
The European Union is the world’s largest trade bloc in terms of goods and services combined, accounting in 2024 for an estimated 15.8% of world trade.
link.europa.eu
November 10, 2025 at 10:48 AM
But still not a trade superpower as we are seeing... which should provide a good sense of what needs to happen, and that isn't to retreat to protection.
Still struggling to have a view on the BBC much beyond it is better to have an independent broadcaster than not, but that like all large organisations there's a lot that can and does go wrong not least when it is trying to respond to everyone's differing views.
November 10, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Still struggling to have a view on the BBC much beyond it is better to have an independent broadcaster than not, but that like all large organisations there's a lot that can and does go wrong not least when it is trying to respond to everyone's differing views.
Reposted by David Henig
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
November 10, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
Reposted by David Henig
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
Higher taxes may be necessary given demographics. But I would argue this has to be grounded in an economic context where no serious growth can be assumed, and accompanied with a serious question as to what the role of government as provider should be.
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.
It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
renewal.org.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Higher taxes may be necessary given demographics. But I would argue this has to be grounded in an economic context where no serious growth can be assumed, and accompanied with a serious question as to what the role of government as provider should be.
All things being equal, a growing and competitive domestic market should also enable its companies to compete better globally than a shrinking one trying to protect itself.
The EU and US are making it easy for China to grow its global trade. www.ft.com/content/c84b...
The EU and US are making it easy for China to grow its global trade. www.ft.com/content/c84b...
Chinese automakers are overtaking European rivals, says car-shipping chief
World’s biggest operator, Wallenius Wilhelmsen, aims to boost revenue by helping newer Beijing brands expand overseas
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:39 AM
All things being equal, a growing and competitive domestic market should also enable its companies to compete better globally than a shrinking one trying to protect itself.
The EU and US are making it easy for China to grow its global trade. www.ft.com/content/c84b...
The EU and US are making it easy for China to grow its global trade. www.ft.com/content/c84b...
Just wondering about the link between engaging with the interactive screen of your choice and being outraged.
November 9, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Just wondering about the link between engaging with the interactive screen of your choice and being outraged.
Haven't most people accepted Fleetwood Mac by now? Now, Steely Dan on the other hand, fights are close to breaking out between devotees and haters in this very age group...
I'm not saying 'only people aged 47 to 55 think Fleetwood Mac are bad' - obviously people of all ages have different opinions. But only people in that v specific age group think that 'Fleetwood Mac are bad' is a common sense, commonplace opinion.
November 9, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Haven't most people accepted Fleetwood Mac by now? Now, Steely Dan on the other hand, fights are close to breaking out between devotees and haters in this very age group...
For all the talk of the promoted sides doing better this time round I can easily see Burnley and Leeds going down. Wolves look likely to have the other place booked...
November 9, 2025 at 3:37 PM
For all the talk of the promoted sides doing better this time round I can easily see Burnley and Leeds going down. Wolves look likely to have the other place booked...
Idling through some non-league tables and noticed that Redcar Athletic of tier 8 are currently on track to score 160 goals this season... some decent teams in this league including the legendary Blyth Spartans near the foot.
November 9, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Idling through some non-league tables and noticed that Redcar Athletic of tier 8 are currently on track to score 160 goals this season... some decent teams in this league including the legendary Blyth Spartans near the foot.
From the school of US thought that wants to rerun the cold war but with the US and anyone daft enough to join behind the protective wall while China trades openly with the rest. www.ft.com/content/191e...
Here’s what a new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal should look like
The old WTO model is dead — sovereign control and national security matter
www.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:42 PM
From the school of US thought that wants to rerun the cold war but with the US and anyone daft enough to join behind the protective wall while China trades openly with the rest. www.ft.com/content/191e...
Reposted by David Henig
I'm surprised at the pushback this post has gotten from people saying basically "but you don't know how bad things are today." That misses the point, which was that things were far less economically secure in the past than some people today imagine they were.
People wildly overestimate the economic security experienced by past generations. There's no period in American history where significant numbers of young people were just handed high paying jobs. Nostalgia for a time that never existed is a huge problem.
Why Nikki Haley’s son went radical: His generation inherited insecurity.
I profile Nalin Haley, a fascinating young man, who I believe will likely play an important role in conservative politics in years to come.
unherd.com/2025/11/why-...
I profile Nalin Haley, a fascinating young man, who I believe will likely play an important role in conservative politics in years to come.
unherd.com/2025/11/why-...
November 9, 2025 at 11:54 AM
I'm surprised at the pushback this post has gotten from people saying basically "but you don't know how bad things are today." That misses the point, which was that things were far less economically secure in the past than some people today imagine they were.
Nice line about taxing multi-millionaires rather than ordinary people. You can almost certainly do some of that. And almost certainly not enough to even come close to solving public services challenges.
There's no escape from the need to prioritise.
There's no escape from the need to prioritise.
November 9, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Nice line about taxing multi-millionaires rather than ordinary people. You can almost certainly do some of that. And almost certainly not enough to even come close to solving public services challenges.
There's no escape from the need to prioritise.
There's no escape from the need to prioritise.
Signs of the economic times across various sectors, smaller landlords withdraw from the market under various pressures, larger ones expand their presence. www.ft.com/content/3c59...
Lloyds quietly builds £2bn rental portfolio to become major UK landlord
UK bank has acquired 7,500 homes for rent since 2021 as it seeks to diversify income
www.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Signs of the economic times across various sectors, smaller landlords withdraw from the market under various pressures, larger ones expand their presence. www.ft.com/content/3c59...