David Henig
@davidheniguk.bsky.social
Trade wonk, Brexit bore, globalisation defender, music lover, cricketer, gardener, supporter of mediocre football teams, who knows where the time goes?
Pinned
David Henig
@davidheniguk.bsky.social
· Oct 15
The New World of Trade – How 40 Years of Change Brought Globalisation Without Trust
Making sense of daily trade policy turbulence has become a major challenge. President Trump is just one part of a complex ever-changing picture.Stop the world to catch up is an understandable respons
ecipe.org
"How 40 years of change brought globalisation without trust" - my latest long read (based on a talk given this morning) seems immediately relevant given further US-China tensions over global supply chains.
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
Global markets are a reality --->
ecipe.org/blog/the-new...
Don't quite agree, because I think Trump is a particularly extreme leader and the successor will be very different. If undoubtedly challenging in their own ways.
Survival is the first order demand. Then working out what is required for the future.
Survival is the first order demand. Then working out what is required for the future.
"Vassal" talk is a bit much, but those Starmer (and other EU leaders tbf) statements read like all these people still believe, if we can just hold our breath for three more years, this nightmare will be over and we'll be back to singing Atlantic Kumbaya
January 5, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Don't quite agree, because I think Trump is a particularly extreme leader and the successor will be very different. If undoubtedly challenging in their own ways.
Survival is the first order demand. Then working out what is required for the future.
Survival is the first order demand. Then working out what is required for the future.
I think I know the perfect replacement. Step forward @anandmenon.bsky.social...
Ruben Amorim sacked by Manchester United after losing power struggle over transfers
Ruben Amorim sacked by Manchester United after losing power struggle over transfers
*
Head coach goes after outburst at Leeds game
*
He oversaw worst Premier League finish of 15th
Ruben Amorim has been sacked by Manchester United after 14 months as their head coach. The Portuguese departs after a power struggle with the hierarchy over transfer policy, with Amorim demanding his colleagues in the recruitment department “do their job” after Sunday’s draw at Leeds.
Amorim believed United were prepared to back him in the January window should a major signing become available but then said last Friday: “We have no conversation to have any change in the squad.” Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 5, 2026 at 10:44 AM
I think I know the perfect replacement. Step forward @anandmenon.bsky.social...
Reposted by David Henig
What could a black swan event be in 2026? I was asked by @theparliament.bsky.social - great collection of perspectives, also with my colleague @emilarchambault.bsky.social on Canada-EU relations 👇
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
January 5, 2026 at 8:38 AM
What could a black swan event be in 2026? I was asked by @theparliament.bsky.social - great collection of perspectives, also with my colleague @emilarchambault.bsky.social on Canada-EU relations 👇
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
Reposted by David Henig
This 70s nostalgia is like the yearning for a return of manufacturing or the hopes for civil conflict. All are founded upon an ignorance of what the 70s or old-style manufacturing or violence were really like. The right has become detached from reality.
January 5, 2026 at 8:31 AM
This 70s nostalgia is like the yearning for a return of manufacturing or the hopes for civil conflict. All are founded upon an ignorance of what the 70s or old-style manufacturing or violence were really like. The right has become detached from reality.
Question for Europe re. Greenland is surely less about US invasion than the scenario in which Trump says he withdraws from all Ukrainian assistance unless Denmark signs over the territory... or similar. Basically the mobster approach.
January 5, 2026 at 7:41 AM
Question for Europe re. Greenland is surely less about US invasion than the scenario in which Trump says he withdraws from all Ukrainian assistance unless Denmark signs over the territory... or similar. Basically the mobster approach.
Stage direction: To be repeated for at least 10 years.
UK: Hey EU, we’ve had a great idea.
EU: OK.
UK: We think our national interest suggests we’d be better off in the Single Market.
EU: Don’t say it!
UK: But …
EU: DON’T SAY IT!
UK: Obviously no Freedom of Movement.
EU: ARRRRRRGGGGHHHHHH
EU: OK.
UK: We think our national interest suggests we’d be better off in the Single Market.
EU: Don’t say it!
UK: But …
EU: DON’T SAY IT!
UK: Obviously no Freedom of Movement.
EU: ARRRRRRGGGGHHHHHH
January 5, 2026 at 7:14 AM
Stage direction: To be repeated for at least 10 years.
Basically an elected President proclaiming himself god and demanding whatever he wants.
This has happened of course many times before. But never in the most powerful country in the world.
Not actually very easy to deal with. But he does fear failing.
This has happened of course many times before. But never in the most powerful country in the world.
Not actually very easy to deal with. But he does fear failing.
WH sources say Venezuela's opposition leader committed the "ultimate sin": She accepted the Nobel Peace prize.
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
January 5, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Basically an elected President proclaiming himself god and demanding whatever he wants.
This has happened of course many times before. But never in the most powerful country in the world.
Not actually very easy to deal with. But he does fear failing.
This has happened of course many times before. But never in the most powerful country in the world.
Not actually very easy to deal with. But he does fear failing.
There's nothing obviously new here. UK politics continues to behave as if we set the parameters of what the EU will accept, rather than the other way round.
With no exceptions as far as I can tell.
With no exceptions as far as I can tell.
UK should seek ‘closer alignment’ with EU single market, Starmer says ft.trib.al/ZRwzfBP
UK should seek ‘closer alignment’ with EU single market, Starmer says
Prime minister vows he will stay in Number 10 even as Labour party sinks in opinion polls
ft.trib.al
January 4, 2026 at 1:52 PM
There's nothing obviously new here. UK politics continues to behave as if we set the parameters of what the EU will accept, rather than the other way round.
With no exceptions as far as I can tell.
With no exceptions as far as I can tell.
Does international law stop a strong country from in effect operating a protection racket? Like, I don't know, flooding a country with opium or kidnapping it's leader if they don't do what you want?
January 4, 2026 at 12:29 PM
Does international law stop a strong country from in effect operating a protection racket? Like, I don't know, flooding a country with opium or kidnapping it's leader if they don't do what you want?
UK political culture prizes the relationship with the US as number one priority but doesn't admit that leaving nearly all governments struggling to explain away the many US actions they don't like.
Darren Jones truly woeful on Times Radio right now. Managing to sound both condescending and craven.
Answering “I’m not a commentator” when asked to comment on the legality of the USA’s actions in Venezuela just comes across terribly. The government would’ve been better just putting no one up.
Answering “I’m not a commentator” when asked to comment on the legality of the USA’s actions in Venezuela just comes across terribly. The government would’ve been better just putting no one up.
January 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM
UK political culture prizes the relationship with the US as number one priority but doesn't admit that leaving nearly all governments struggling to explain away the many US actions they don't like.
So many theories about Trump's actions, and most far too sophisticated to be realistic.
January 4, 2026 at 11:56 AM
So many theories about Trump's actions, and most far too sophisticated to be realistic.
I think what China understood and the rest of the world has been slow to do is that Trump is running a protection racket more than a trade or foreign policy.
He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.
He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.
January 4, 2026 at 7:35 AM
I think what China understood and the rest of the world has been slow to do is that Trump is running a protection racket more than a trade or foreign policy.
He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.
He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.
"Europe is crying out for closer relations with Britain".
Nope. Wouldn't mind, isn't desperate.
www.ft.com/content/b234...
Nope. Wouldn't mind, isn't desperate.
www.ft.com/content/b234...
Ed Davey: ‘Europe is crying out for closer relations with Britain’
Lib Dem leader says his party is best placed to take on Reform UK
www.ft.com
January 4, 2026 at 7:20 AM
"Europe is crying out for closer relations with Britain".
Nope. Wouldn't mind, isn't desperate.
www.ft.com/content/b234...
Nope. Wouldn't mind, isn't desperate.
www.ft.com/content/b234...
Why does nobody point out that the UK has been dealing with the issue of illegal US invasions since at least the 1950s? Offhand I don't recall any were condemned, and some were actively supported.
There’s going to be a motion of censure at the UN and Starmer is going to have a decision to make.
January 3, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Why does nobody point out that the UK has been dealing with the issue of illegal US invasions since at least the 1950s? Offhand I don't recall any were condemned, and some were actively supported.
I seem to have missed the golden age of international law when all countries but particularly the US did everything according to the rules.
I also seem to be missing the ideas for creating another.
I also seem to be missing the ideas for creating another.
January 3, 2026 at 2:43 PM
I seem to have missed the golden age of international law when all countries but particularly the US did everything according to the rules.
I also seem to be missing the ideas for creating another.
I also seem to be missing the ideas for creating another.
Reposted by David Henig
Also if anyone is interested in the history of the United States' attempts to topple leaders in South America and install more friendly dictators then you can - and I'm not joking here - download the files from the CIA website.
January 3, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Also if anyone is interested in the history of the United States' attempts to topple leaders in South America and install more friendly dictators then you can - and I'm not joking here - download the files from the CIA website.
Reposted by David Henig
I think this is probably right
despite how insane this morning's news seemed, we're already in an insane situation
I guess we're rightly incensed, but were also desperate to turn over a new leaf, to see glimpses of a better future
this brought back our unreality with a thud
despite how insane this morning's news seemed, we're already in an insane situation
I guess we're rightly incensed, but were also desperate to turn over a new leaf, to see glimpses of a better future
this brought back our unreality with a thud
Going out on a limb here, I don't think today's US news means anything whatsoever for other global affairs, whether Greenland, Ukraine, or Taiwan. See it as a rare example of continuity in US politics.
January 3, 2026 at 11:44 AM
I think this is probably right
despite how insane this morning's news seemed, we're already in an insane situation
I guess we're rightly incensed, but were also desperate to turn over a new leaf, to see glimpses of a better future
this brought back our unreality with a thud
despite how insane this morning's news seemed, we're already in an insane situation
I guess we're rightly incensed, but were also desperate to turn over a new leaf, to see glimpses of a better future
this brought back our unreality with a thud
Reposted by David Henig
1. Why does Russian regime change against Ukraine fail?
Ukraine's leadership was democratically elected and seen as legitimate by most Ukrainians.
2. Why could the US to seize Maduro in Venezuela?
Maduro falsified elections and was seen as illegitimate by much of Venezuela.
Ukraine's leadership was democratically elected and seen as legitimate by most Ukrainians.
2. Why could the US to seize Maduro in Venezuela?
Maduro falsified elections and was seen as illegitimate by much of Venezuela.
January 3, 2026 at 10:52 AM
1. Why does Russian regime change against Ukraine fail?
Ukraine's leadership was democratically elected and seen as legitimate by most Ukrainians.
2. Why could the US to seize Maduro in Venezuela?
Maduro falsified elections and was seen as illegitimate by much of Venezuela.
Ukraine's leadership was democratically elected and seen as legitimate by most Ukrainians.
2. Why could the US to seize Maduro in Venezuela?
Maduro falsified elections and was seen as illegitimate by much of Venezuela.
Obviously bad. Equally... not unprecedented for the US.
JUST IN: Trump says the U.S. has captured Maduro and his wife and flown them out of the country.
January 3, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Obviously bad. Equally... not unprecedented for the US.
Reposted by David Henig
Excellent post by @pollymackenzie.bsky.social on the trouble with stakeholder statism and all that:
Governing without Giving a F***
The advice Keir Starmer should take from a self-help guru
substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Excellent post by @pollymackenzie.bsky.social on the trouble with stakeholder statism and all that:
Reposted by David Henig
Genuinely interesting article that correctly isolates the affordability problem as largely one about Baumol cost disease and the issue of positional goods generating zero sum battles in a world of higher wealth inequality. Great stuff
"Maddeningly, voters want contradictory things: low prices when they shop, high wages for themselves; not many immigrants but lots of cheap labour; rising house prices when they own and lower ones when their children want to buy"
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
From The Economist
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
From The Economist
The truth about affordability
Voters in rich countries are angry about prices. Politicians could make things worse
www.economist.com
January 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM
Genuinely interesting article that correctly isolates the affordability problem as largely one about Baumol cost disease and the issue of positional goods generating zero sum battles in a world of higher wealth inequality. Great stuff
Just this. Governments have to choose and an ever increasing clamour from everyone. Rather than hoping to find the magic button marked "all problems solved".
And that's the fundamental problem for this UK government. No basis for priority, lots of hope of finding the magic levers.
And that's the fundamental problem for this UK government. No basis for priority, lots of hope of finding the magic levers.
Well, this explains a lot about Labour's travails if little else.
Verging on conspiracism.
Hate to break it to politicians of this and all future generations, you will be governing in a complex society. You need to factor that into your operating model.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Verging on conspiracism.
Hate to break it to politicians of this and all future generations, you will be governing in a complex society. You need to factor that into your operating model.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Alaa Abd el-Fattah has shown supremacy of the Stakeholder State
My time working in No 10 showed me how much time and energy is sapped by people obsessed with fringe issues. It doesn’t have to be this way
www.thetimes.com
January 2, 2026 at 8:21 AM
Just this. Governments have to choose and an ever increasing clamour from everyone. Rather than hoping to find the magic button marked "all problems solved".
And that's the fundamental problem for this UK government. No basis for priority, lots of hope of finding the magic levers.
And that's the fundamental problem for this UK government. No basis for priority, lots of hope of finding the magic levers.
Well then, happy new year and all that, and er who fancies a drink, we'll need it if 2026 continues last year's trends...
January 1, 2026 at 9:18 AM
Well then, happy new year and all that, and er who fancies a drink, we'll need it if 2026 continues last year's trends...
Just started reading Breakneck by Dan Wang about the differences and similarities between US and China (I know how to have fun on New Year's Eve) and it is simply essential reading - for these countries and understanding more broadly why the west slowed (lawyers, basically).
December 31, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Just started reading Breakneck by Dan Wang about the differences and similarities between US and China (I know how to have fun on New Year's Eve) and it is simply essential reading - for these countries and understanding more broadly why the west slowed (lawyers, basically).
Reposted by David Henig
"Voters want contradictory things: low #prices when they shop, high #wages for themselves; not many immigrants but lots of cheap labour; rising house prices when they own and lower ones when their children want to buy." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
December 31, 2025 at 12:17 PM
"Voters want contradictory things: low #prices when they shop, high #wages for themselves; not many immigrants but lots of cheap labour; rising house prices when they own and lower ones when their children want to buy." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...