Duncan Weldon
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duncanweldon.bsky.social
Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
Economics writer. Author.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Pinned
Time for a new pinned post. Out now in the UK, coming January 6th in the US.
I reckon a shared national popular culture is just as important (if not more important) than a fact based, impartial news service for liberal democracy to work.
November 10, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Good paper.
And a useful reminder that the forecasts of long term damage look to have been broadly right.
Where as the immediate impact, pre referendum, Treasury paper was pretty bad.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a8077...
November 10, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
BoE systemic stablecoin proposals out. Backing 60/40 split UK gov debt and unremunerated reserves. Access to central bank liquidity. Holding limits www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2025/no...
Bank of England launches consultation on regulating systemic stablecoins
The Bank of England (the Bank) has today published a consultation paper (CP) setting out its proposed regulatory regime for sterling-denominated systemic stablecoins.
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I’m just trying to read a pdf. I don’t require AI assistance thank you very much.
November 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
ONLINE EVENT: Join us next Wednesday between 14.00-15.00 to discuss what the labour market & inflation statistics mean for the decisions facing the Government at the Autumn Budget feat @duncanweldon.bsky.social, @helenbarnard.bsky.social & Suren Thiru.

Sign-up: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/work-matte...
November 10, 2025 at 11:48 AM
The BBC: quite a big deal.
November 10, 2025 at 10:36 AM
The Truman Show with the eldest this evening.
Not sure I’ve seen it since about 1999.
November 8, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Huge numbers of Labour policy spads read @samfr.bsky.social’s Substack, where the exact scale of the repair job was written in black and white. What actually happened is those people were cowed into silence by a set-up that valued polling over policy.
November 8, 2025 at 10:34 AM
I’m with Vince.

And 2p on income tax plus 2p off NICS to raise £6bn feels like being hung for half a lamb.

www.ft.com/content/9e56...
November 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
My wife: “what do you mean it’s a ‘winter beard’? No one else does this”

Surely other men grow a winter beard?

Perfectly sensible to grow more face-warming hair in the colder months.
November 8, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I’ve just read a 195 comment thread on Facebook on whether a D’deridex class warbird could beat a Galaxy class starship in a straight forward one ship on one ship encounter.
I regret nothing. Excellent use of my evening.
November 7, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Ah, I see the earnest quote reposters have arrived/America has woken up.
November 7, 2025 at 12:22 PM
A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?
China has made cheap, clean energy available in huge quantities. The world should take the win econ.st/4oqFszB

Photo: Eyevine
November 7, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Christmas family trip north booked.
I don’t really understand the economics of rail cards.
Family & friends rail card: £35 for a year.
Savings over the last 12 months: £396.
November 6, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Nugget 2 — Productivity: After an upgrade in the last report, the Bank changed its mind and downgraded the path: growth in output per worker is ~0.2pp below the OBR on average and ~0.1pp below its Aug forecast. We'll be keeping an eye on how that compares to the OBR at budget.
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Enjoyed editing this look by @duncanweldon.bsky.social at what history's tech backlashes tell us about what to expect with AI: www.transformernews.ai/p/history-su...
History suggests the AI backlash will fail
From Venetian monks to 19th century textile workers, those opposing new technology have rarely come out on top
www.transformernews.ai
November 6, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Really looking forward to making a start on this at the weekend.
#AdvanceBritannia by @alanallport.bsky.social is out today. A definitive account of the Second World War as it was lived, from the battlefields to the ration books.

'There isn't a better history of the Second World War than this' David Edgerton

profilebooks.com/work/advance...
November 6, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Absolutely the best thing you will read today.
NEW: The End of the Line: the centrepiece of Saudi Arabia’s Neom gigaproject - a 500m tall, 170km long wall-like building intended ultimately to house 9 million people - can’t get out of the ground, say more than 20 former Neom architects, engineers and senior executives.
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
End of The Line: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled
Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance
ig.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
British press reaction to the end of the “war” also interesting.

Initially: “we’ve won. We’ve easily won this!”

Calm sober analysis (along the O’Rourke line) begins to filter through that, well, maybe not.

Pro-Chamberlain press: “this only proves how magnanimous the PM has been here!”
November 5, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Have your relatives died? Do you miss them? Does that make you sad?
Have you considered paying a company to animate a photo of them to give it four or five seconds of movement?
That’ll surely help.
November 5, 2025 at 5:57 PM
I think I’ve been meaning to write this piece since about 2017 or 2018.
Glad to have finally done so!
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Quick scan of the curriculum review.
This is interesting.
My school offered French & German. My kids have only ever done Spanish.
November 5, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Trade wars are never solely about economics, as the Anglo-Irish tariff war of the 1930s reminds us.

Ireland’s David and the British Goliath | @duncanweldon.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/essays/irela...
Ireland's David and the British Goliath
Trade wars are never solely about economics, as the Anglo-Irish tariff war of the 1930s reminds us.
engelsbergideas.com
November 5, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
What if there was a consensus on the tax reforms the UK needs?

What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation?

The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?
November 5, 2025 at 9:51 AM