Paula Surridge
@psurridge.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
Misread this as global insanity and I'm not sure that's any less accurate.
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Confronting foreign policy challenges - UK in a changing Europe
UK in a Changing Europe has assembled a panel of some of the world's top experts to analyse on the key foreign policy challenges we face.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Misread this as global insanity and I'm not sure that's any less accurate.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Confronting foreign policy challenges - UK in a changing Europe
UK in a Changing Europe has assembled a panel of some of the world's top experts to analyse on the key foreign policy challenges we face.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
Fell down a facebook rabbit hole thanks to something a family member shared. Labour should be really concerned, the tone and circulation of posts now has a simialr feel to Conservatives in 2023 but with an added side of far right memes. Facebook worries me far more than X
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Fell down a facebook rabbit hole thanks to something a family member shared. Labour should be really concerned, the tone and circulation of posts now has a simialr feel to Conservatives in 2023 but with an added side of far right memes. Facebook worries me far more than X
In the last week I've used up five hours chasing a repeat prescription and an emergency outpatient appointment for my son.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
November 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM
In the last week I've used up five hours chasing a repeat prescription and an emergency outpatient appointment for my son.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
As part of semianrs on campaigning and media effects this week we rewatched campaign videos from the 2024 GE including this one...I don't expect huge numbers saw the whole thing but it was snipped as shorts and no wonder 18 months on people feel disappointed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
This time, vote Labour. Watch our new party election broadcast
YouTube video by Labour Party
www.youtube.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:57 AM
As part of semianrs on campaigning and media effects this week we rewatched campaign videos from the 2024 GE including this one...I don't expect huge numbers saw the whole thing but it was snipped as shorts and no wonder 18 months on people feel disappointed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
Not for the first time this year I design a seminar activity for three groups of students and find only five turn up.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
November 6, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Not for the first time this year I design a seminar activity for three groups of students and find only five turn up.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
November 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
Reposted by Paula Surridge
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
Younger people who voted Labour are going Green, young people who couldn't vote or didn't vote are going Green. Many uncertainties in politics but here's one sure thing: this group will be bigger at next GE than now - voting age going down and more people becoming eligible.
Where is the Green vote coming from? Only 4 in 10 current Green voters backed the Party last July. 1 in 5 opted for Labour while a similar number didn’t/couldn’t vote in a mirror of Reform UK’s attraction of previous non voters.
October 29, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Younger people who voted Labour are going Green, young people who couldn't vote or didn't vote are going Green. Many uncertainties in politics but here's one sure thing: this group will be bigger at next GE than now - voting age going down and more people becoming eligible.
What I am taking from the Musk Tolkekn tweet is we need to send the LibDems (the gentle people of the shire) to take X to Mount Doom.
October 29, 2025 at 10:13 AM
What I am taking from the Musk Tolkekn tweet is we need to send the LibDems (the gentle people of the shire) to take X to Mount Doom.
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
October 28, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
If I've understood correctly, things could be worse than they seem for Labour (and the Conservatives) here because the MRP modelling of the don't knows is giving about 3 in 4 of them back to their 'home' party.
Our latest Westminster voting intention (26-27 Oct) has Labour on their lowest figure ever recorded by YouGov, with the Greens on their highest
Reform UK: 27% (+1 from 19-20 Oct)
Labour: 17% (-3)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Reform UK: 27% (+1 from 19-20 Oct)
Labour: 17% (-3)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
October 28, 2025 at 10:39 AM
If I've understood correctly, things could be worse than they seem for Labour (and the Conservatives) here because the MRP modelling of the don't knows is giving about 3 in 4 of them back to their 'home' party.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
The danger for Labour is that the Greens are also finding/creating a highly motivated group who dislike Labour. Too early to be sure how that plays out.
October 26, 2025 at 8:45 AM
The danger for Labour is that the Greens are also finding/creating a highly motivated group who dislike Labour. Too early to be sure how that plays out.
Reform's voters are highly motivated, and for the most part strongly dislike Labour. You win at constituency level by bringing together the 'activated liberals' who dislike the idea of a Reform MP/government more than anything. You don't do that by moving closer to Reform.
October 26, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Reform's voters are highly motivated, and for the most part strongly dislike Labour. You win at constituency level by bringing together the 'activated liberals' who dislike the idea of a Reform MP/government more than anything. You don't do that by moving closer to Reform.
Off to teach a seminar on national identity and party dealignment...not much material to work with today.
October 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Off to teach a seminar on national identity and party dealignment...not much material to work with today.
It's shame the @britishelectionstudy.com didn't repeat this question in wave 30 - still time for wave 31?
There's alot to unpack here but the very high proportions on the liberal left that would vote against Reform suggests that if Reform grow throughout the parliament some of those voters lost to Greens might vote for Labour where they are challenged by Reform.
October 24, 2025 at 11:48 AM
It's shame the @britishelectionstudy.com didn't repeat this question in wave 30 - still time for wave 31?
Wasn't the post I was looking for - suspect it was probably back on twitter but apparently some of this was foreseeable :)
I've thought for a while they were in real trouble in Wales. Plaid might be able to mobilise the stop Reform voters.
October 24, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Wasn't the post I was looking for - suspect it was probably back on twitter but apparently some of this was foreseeable :)
At least this analysis is helping with my imposter syndrome.
Chris Mason has misunderstood the Caerphilly by-election with the idea that Reform lost "none of the above" voters who could have voted Reform to Plaid, or that Plaid took the potential Reform vote.
Hope BES academics can point out why this reading of Wales/Scotland v England misses the drivers
Hope BES academics can point out why this reading of Wales/Scotland v England misses the drivers
October 24, 2025 at 11:35 AM
At least this analysis is helping with my imposter syndrome.
Somewhat hastily written first thoughts on Caerphilly result www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly points to a new kind of electorate
The Welsh town’s byelection was a two-party race – but this time neither Labour nor the Conservatives were in it
www.theguardian.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Somewhat hastily written first thoughts on Caerphilly result www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
There's a headline to be written about Ming vases and Caerphilly...
October 24, 2025 at 7:59 AM
There's a headline to be written about Ming vases and Caerphilly...
One of these seems like an excellent use of AI though...
"I have had to deal with instances of AI being used to bully other pupils, produce images that are offensive, cheat at homework, answer maths questions, write English speeches and settle debates about who would win in a fight between a shark and a crocodile."
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
Bullying, Cheating And The Widening Gap: A Teacher's Struggles With AI In The Classroom
The uses and abuses of AI are transforming education, but teachers need more help to stop it widening the attainment gap. Kyle Parsad reports from ...
www.politicshome.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:55 AM
One of these seems like an excellent use of AI though...
What seat could currently hold a by election and not have us wake up to an unprecedented result?
October 24, 2025 at 7:49 AM
What seat could currently hold a by election and not have us wake up to an unprecedented result?
Reposted by Paula Surridge
People have assumed that Reform are mobilising 'non-voters' and thinking, perhaps, of 2016 Brexit voters who don't vote in general elections. Surely some, but I'd bet that they're mainly converting Conservatives who voted in 2017 and 2019 but who sat out the election in 2024 (as so many people did).
October 24, 2025 at 7:44 AM
People have assumed that Reform are mobilising 'non-voters' and thinking, perhaps, of 2016 Brexit voters who don't vote in general elections. Surely some, but I'd bet that they're mainly converting Conservatives who voted in 2017 and 2019 but who sat out the election in 2024 (as so many people did).
Caerphilly was a two-party race. Just neither of the usual 'two parties' featured. You *could* have a situation where Reform come second in lots and lots of two party races to different parties (of course equally you could have a case where this happens to Labour)
It's easy to look at stuff like this and assume the next general election is going to a mess. But there are 650 individual contests — in which voters are pretty adept at working out which lever they need to pull to get the result they want.
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Caerphilly was a two-party race. Just neither of the usual 'two parties' featured. You *could* have a situation where Reform come second in lots and lots of two party races to different parties (of course equally you could have a case where this happens to Labour)