Paula Surridge
@psurridge.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
How can a government be taken seriously when it does nothing about Grok (in fact posts alongside it) while promoting this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
January 6, 2026 at 9:17 AM
How can a government be taken seriously when it does nothing about Grok (in fact posts alongside it) while promoting this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Dont wish to worry any of my co authors @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social but the asparagus has spoken
January 5, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Dont wish to worry any of my co authors @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social but the asparagus has spoken
It is actually here, on my actual desk.
January 5, 2026 at 12:34 PM
It is actually here, on my actual desk.
Considering leaving the Christmas tree up until the cricket season starts.
January 4, 2026 at 7:21 PM
Considering leaving the Christmas tree up until the cricket season starts.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
January 2, 2026 at 11:44 AM
It is striking in this (brilliant) chart how much of what has 'cut through' is international news.
Every week this year we asked Britons what news story they had heard most about - here are 2025's top stories in one chart
1. 64% Budget (Nov/Dec)
2. 63% US/Israel vs Iran clashes (Jun)
3. 62% LA wildfires (Jan)
4. 56% US tariffs (Apr)
5. 55% Pope Francis death (Apr)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
1. 64% Budget (Nov/Dec)
2. 63% US/Israel vs Iran clashes (Jun)
3. 62% LA wildfires (Jan)
4. 56% US tariffs (Apr)
5. 55% Pope Francis death (Apr)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
December 31, 2025 at 1:48 PM
It is striking in this (brilliant) chart how much of what has 'cut through' is international news.
A 'hunch' Over the last decade people have become more and used to have strong negative feelings about politics and politicians. But during 2019-2024 this became particularly acute as anti-government sentiment and has remained so.
Glad the FT is asking the question. Even if I’m not convinced they found a compelling answer.
I get that Starmer & Reeves are unpopular, I really don’t understand the extent of the dislike.
www.ft.com/content/1995... ‘There’s a real dislike, even loathing’: why voters hate Starmer and Reeves
I get that Starmer & Reeves are unpopular, I really don’t understand the extent of the dislike.
www.ft.com/content/1995... ‘There’s a real dislike, even loathing’: why voters hate Starmer and Reeves
‘There’s a real dislike, even loathing’: why voters hate Starmer and Reeves
Allies concede the prime minister and chancellor have made mistakes yet the level of disdain towards them is still striking
www.ft.com
December 31, 2025 at 9:42 AM
A 'hunch' Over the last decade people have become more and used to have strong negative feelings about politics and politicians. But during 2019-2024 this became particularly acute as anti-government sentiment and has remained so.
I complain a lot but today my GP receptionist really made a difference and it was so appreciated. Having had to ask for an additional prescription, I then went to the adjacent pharmacy to collect others and the lovely receptionist brought the additional one to me so I didn't have to queue twice.
Back battling the palliative care system. We really need to do so much better for people. Sick of platitudes about care standards that mean nothing.
December 30, 2025 at 6:49 PM
I complain a lot but today my GP receptionist really made a difference and it was so appreciated. Having had to ask for an additional prescription, I then went to the adjacent pharmacy to collect others and the lovely receptionist brought the additional one to me so I didn't have to queue twice.
This is something I worry about a lot - missing groups in samples is even more important when we are making claims about public opinion than when we are predicting vote shares.
So we are missing the views of many non voters, who skew younger and more ethnically diverse when generating 'national' headlines for attitudes this matters even more than for voting figures.
December 30, 2025 at 6:42 PM
This is something I worry about a lot - missing groups in samples is even more important when we are making claims about public opinion than when we are predicting vote shares.
Back battling the palliative care system. We really need to do so much better for people. Sick of platitudes about care standards that mean nothing.
December 29, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Back battling the palliative care system. We really need to do so much better for people. Sick of platitudes about care standards that mean nothing.
Hmm my son is doing a DoE project about the Ashes to learn about the 'long' form of the game.
December 26, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Hmm my son is doing a DoE project about the Ashes to learn about the 'long' form of the game.
This is exactly the problem of some ways AI is being used in public opinion research. But maybe eventually the public will be trained well enough to behave as the AI expects 😀
When I say LLMs won't find things that are surprising, I don't mean that they're incapable of finding anomalies or outliers in the data. I mean: They won't help us to think about the world in novel ways.
December 24, 2025 at 9:57 PM
This is exactly the problem of some ways AI is being used in public opinion research. But maybe eventually the public will be trained well enough to behave as the AI expects 😀
Any networky people - is there any benefit to a portable router + PAYG data SIM over hot spot from my phone? Desperate after 4 days with broadband down and an ETA for an engineer of 31st Dec.
December 23, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Any networky people - is there any benefit to a portable router + PAYG data SIM over hot spot from my phone? Desperate after 4 days with broadband down and an ETA for an engineer of 31st Dec.
Day 4. All very excited when new router arrives...doesn't seem to help 😞
Day 3: Luckily youngest Teen has an all day cricket camp, eldest teen will sleep til the afternoon. Open Reach you have five hours*
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
We're two days in with two teenage boys and the broadband down...they've decided we should go shopping 😱
December 23, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Day 4. All very excited when new router arrives...doesn't seem to help 😞
Reposted by Paula Surridge
🎁 Just got pre-Christmas academic gift from @electoralstudies.bsky.social. In our research note, Chloé de Grauwe and I document income-based differences in #economic voting. In a nutshell: the rich punish governments (somewhat) more for perceived economic downturns.
Free author copy 👇
Free author copy 👇
authors.elsevier.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:44 PM
🎁 Just got pre-Christmas academic gift from @electoralstudies.bsky.social. In our research note, Chloé de Grauwe and I document income-based differences in #economic voting. In a nutshell: the rich punish governments (somewhat) more for perceived economic downturns.
Free author copy 👇
Free author copy 👇
Day 3: Luckily youngest Teen has an all day cricket camp, eldest teen will sleep til the afternoon. Open Reach you have five hours*
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
We're two days in with two teenage boys and the broadband down...they've decided we should go shopping 😱
December 22, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Day 3: Luckily youngest Teen has an all day cricket camp, eldest teen will sleep til the afternoon. Open Reach you have five hours*
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
At Longleat for the Christmas lights on Friday, and I don't think it is fair that Australia gets both the cutest animals on the planet *and* the best cricketers.
a koala bear is holding a baby koala bear in its arms in a tree .
ALT: a koala bear is holding a baby koala bear in its arms in a tree .
media.tenor.com
December 21, 2025 at 8:54 AM
At Longleat for the Christmas lights on Friday, and I don't think it is fair that Australia gets both the cutest animals on the planet *and* the best cricketers.
Watching Sky's 'Hero of Headingey' documentary, more in hope than expectation
December 18, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Watching Sky's 'Hero of Headingey' documentary, more in hope than expectation
Reposted by Paula Surridge
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
December 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
And this is why I'm less and less convinced that 2029 really is a long way off... terminal decline is very hard to shift, even under new leadership*
*See Conservative party 2022-present
*See Conservative party 2022-present
Important read here on a collapse in Wales which looks set to provoke an existential crisis in Labour.
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
December 17, 2025 at 9:48 AM
And this is why I'm less and less convinced that 2029 really is a long way off... terminal decline is very hard to shift, even under new leadership*
*See Conservative party 2022-present
*See Conservative party 2022-present
Reposted by Paula Surridge
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reform are good at reaching young people...if you compare them with the Conservatives.
Young people love Plaid and hate Reform
There has been a lot of talk about Reform being really effective at reaching young people.
However this polling suggests that just 5% of those aged 18 - 24 would vote for them.
There has been a lot of talk about Reform being really effective at reaching young people.
However this polling suggests that just 5% of those aged 18 - 24 would vote for them.
December 17, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Reform are good at reaching young people...if you compare them with the Conservatives.
Youngest reckons 19 wickets before we wake up tomorrow, I think maybe his idea of a test match has been a bit skewed.
December 16, 2025 at 11:38 PM
Youngest reckons 19 wickets before we wake up tomorrow, I think maybe his idea of a test match has been a bit skewed.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
📚New 'Political Insight' issue📚
Featuring #OpenAccess article 'The #British #GeneralElection of 2024: A #Labour Landslide Built on Fragile Foundations' by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social
➡️ buff.ly/LMYdW3U
Featuring #OpenAccess article 'The #British #GeneralElection of 2024: A #Labour Landslide Built on Fragile Foundations' by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social
➡️ buff.ly/LMYdW3U
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
buff.ly
December 16, 2025 at 6:01 PM
📚New 'Political Insight' issue📚
Featuring #OpenAccess article 'The #British #GeneralElection of 2024: A #Labour Landslide Built on Fragile Foundations' by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social
➡️ buff.ly/LMYdW3U
Featuring #OpenAccess article 'The #British #GeneralElection of 2024: A #Labour Landslide Built on Fragile Foundations' by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social
➡️ buff.ly/LMYdW3U
You'd think we could devise a way of flagging student work for AI use that didn't require the marker to put in more effort than the student did on the original submission *and* still write constructive feedback on that submission #grumpymarkingday
December 16, 2025 at 2:18 PM
You'd think we could devise a way of flagging student work for AI use that didn't require the marker to put in more effort than the student did on the original submission *and* still write constructive feedback on that submission #grumpymarkingday