Paula Surridge
@psurridge.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
I am just hoping the endless rain since the New Year isn't payment for last summer but a deposit on a dry cricket season this year.
February 8, 2026 at 1:41 PM
I am just hoping the endless rain since the New Year isn't payment for last summer but a deposit on a dry cricket season this year.
I am it seems already fed up hearing about the up-coming by election and its candidates. I'm not sure if this just reflects the reasons I am currently off work or if it actually is a reflection of how tedious commentary on British politics feels currently.
February 1, 2026 at 2:08 PM
I am it seems already fed up hearing about the up-coming by election and its candidates. I'm not sure if this just reflects the reasons I am currently off work or if it actually is a reflection of how tedious commentary on British politics feels currently.
Relatedly, mental health services locally are appalling. No wonder so many people end up in crisis. You get passed to the only NHS service in the county, who have already referred you back to the GP because needs are too complex. If you can't afford to seek out private help there's nothing...
After more than two years of struggles with the NHS I found out on Friday that Mum doesn't and indeed never did have pancreatic cancer. And I'm sharing here only because I have no idea what else to do with it.
January 28, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Relatedly, mental health services locally are appalling. No wonder so many people end up in crisis. You get passed to the only NHS service in the county, who have already referred you back to the GP because needs are too complex. If you can't afford to seek out private help there's nothing...
After more than two years of struggles with the NHS I found out on Friday that Mum doesn't and indeed never did have pancreatic cancer. And I'm sharing here only because I have no idea what else to do with it.
January 28, 2026 at 9:37 AM
After more than two years of struggles with the NHS I found out on Friday that Mum doesn't and indeed never did have pancreatic cancer. And I'm sharing here only because I have no idea what else to do with it.
When writing the 2019 and 2024 election books by elections often form a key part of the story. Chesham and Amersham in 2021, Brecon in 2019. Perhaps Merthyr has already done the signalling for this parliament or perhaps Gorton will add to it. They are always more fascinating with hindsight.
January 25, 2026 at 10:59 PM
When writing the 2019 and 2024 election books by elections often form a key part of the story. Chesham and Amersham in 2021, Brecon in 2019. Perhaps Merthyr has already done the signalling for this parliament or perhaps Gorton will add to it. They are always more fascinating with hindsight.
Seems to me quite a risk for Burnham to stand against current polling, surely a non zero chance of the Greens taking the seat?
January 24, 2026 at 8:54 PM
Seems to me quite a risk for Burnham to stand against current polling, surely a non zero chance of the Greens taking the seat?
I saw this story and it's a good example of focussing on the differences rather than that large majorities of all age groups say the same thing.
Sorry, these results may make some followers feel old.
January 24, 2026 at 1:03 PM
I saw this story and it's a good example of focussing on the differences rather than that large majorities of all age groups say the same thing.
Female voters of all ages are more undecided (or at least more willing to say they are) than male voters. This means in VI 'headline' polls female voters are either more likely to be excluded or (as with Yougov) more likely that their vote intention is modelled rather than directly stated.
January 22, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Female voters of all ages are more undecided (or at least more willing to say they are) than male voters. This means in VI 'headline' polls female voters are either more likely to be excluded or (as with Yougov) more likely that their vote intention is modelled rather than directly stated.
Really good to see @yougov transitioning to using an occupational measure of social class (ns-sec) but it is worth adding that by far the strongest occupational class pattern is in non-voting.
January 22, 2026 at 9:12 AM
Really good to see @yougov transitioning to using an occupational measure of social class (ns-sec) but it is worth adding that by far the strongest occupational class pattern is in non-voting.
Feeling pretty happy with my 'hide under the duvet, watch cricket and hope it all blows over' approach to the last 3 days though not sure it's sustainable til 2029.
January 21, 2026 at 9:30 PM
Feeling pretty happy with my 'hide under the duvet, watch cricket and hope it all blows over' approach to the last 3 days though not sure it's sustainable til 2029.
You certainly can't accuse this government of using policy to keep key groups of supporters onside.
It’s part of this story exploring the impact of funding changes at @ukri.org. There are some big changes happening and the article is right that it’s a bit uncertain how it will all play out in practice. Important to flag that discovery research is maintained
www.thetimes.com/article/be92...
www.thetimes.com/article/be92...
Taxpayer-funded research will prioritise economic growth
UK Research and Innovation will back university projects that fit the government’s modern industrial strategy and probably redirect funds from ‘soft’ subjects
www.thetimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 7:35 AM
You certainly can't accuse this government of using policy to keep key groups of supporters onside.
Could just agree to sell Greenland and then employ our local solicitor to do the paperwork and searches...then say the chain fell through after 6 months or so.
January 17, 2026 at 6:26 PM
Could just agree to sell Greenland and then employ our local solicitor to do the paperwork and searches...then say the chain fell through after 6 months or so.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Key line in Will Lloyd's piece on Robert Jenrick's sacking: "Jenrick had told friends in recent weeks that he thought Reform lacked a viable economic spokesperson or an eventual shadow chancellor."
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is there a strategy behind Kemi's Jenrick purge?
She cannot decide whether to rebuild or remake the Conservative Party
www.newstatesman.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Had missed this pre-call in the run up to Christmas but what is the ESRC doing? How can you have a maximum of 60 months funding for a project that runs 2027-2037?
January 15, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Had missed this pre-call in the run up to Christmas but what is the ESRC doing? How can you have a maximum of 60 months funding for a project that runs 2027-2037?
A handy reminder from @sundersays.bsky.social that most of the public will be entirely unmoved by the current political drama.
Robert Jenrick: what do the public think?
Approve: 13%
Disapprove: 32%
Don't Know: 54%
(October 2024)
Approve: 13%
Disapprove: 32%
Don't Know: 54%
(October 2024)
January 15, 2026 at 11:48 AM
A handy reminder from @sundersays.bsky.social that most of the public will be entirely unmoved by the current political drama.
Much of the talk has been about whether the 'right' block can get its act together by the time of the next election. Don't high profile Tory defections to Reform make any kind of pact/deal *less* likely?
(I don't think we'll really know the impact on voters til we're close to an GE campaign)
(I don't think we'll really know the impact on voters til we're close to an GE campaign)
January 15, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Much of the talk has been about whether the 'right' block can get its act together by the time of the next election. Don't high profile Tory defections to Reform make any kind of pact/deal *less* likely?
(I don't think we'll really know the impact on voters til we're close to an GE campaign)
(I don't think we'll really know the impact on voters til we're close to an GE campaign)
Reposted by Paula Surridge
Blocs really are all the rage now huh.
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
Gratifying to see that some Labour MPs are now engaging with the bloc politics argument that @profjanegreen.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social and I have all been making.
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
labourlist.org
January 14, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Blocs really are all the rage now huh.
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
Have thought about the electorate as a mosaic before, with pieces you can stick together. But after a morning trying to make some sort of sense of blocks, switching, and fragmentation all I can think of are lava lamps and the way the stuff inside breaks apart and reforms.
January 14, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Have thought about the electorate as a mosaic before, with pieces you can stick together. But after a morning trying to make some sort of sense of blocks, switching, and fragmentation all I can think of are lava lamps and the way the stuff inside breaks apart and reforms.
Plaid win in Wales, Greens in London, SNP in Scotland - a potential momentum shift post May elections?
Plaid Cymru and the Greens are surging in Wales, according to this latest poll.
Where’s the media narrative around this? Where are the stories saying Farage is failing? When will Labour try to regain ground by appealing to Plaid & Green voters, not just copy Reform?
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
Where’s the media narrative around this? Where are the stories saying Farage is failing? When will Labour try to regain ground by appealing to Plaid & Green voters, not just copy Reform?
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
January 13, 2026 at 10:49 PM
Plaid win in Wales, Greens in London, SNP in Scotland - a potential momentum shift post May elections?
Noticed in the Yougov national poll that the Wales sample seemed to have PC pulling away and Reform falling back. Interesting to see it in a proper Wales sample too.
media focus on Reform UK has obscured the likelihood that Plaid Cymru will lead the next Welsh government
January 13, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Noticed in the Yougov national poll that the Wales sample seemed to have PC pulling away and Reform falling back. Interesting to see it in a proper Wales sample too.
Very much agree with @profjanegreen.bsky.social - though I think there may be some significance in terms of what it signals about Reform's likely left-right placing and how in time that may push some of the 'Left-Authoritarian' (back) to non-voting.
I've long disagreed with view that Con>Reform defections are somehow toxic for Reform. I doubt many know Zahawi's controversies. I think its much more about (powerfully, frankly) signalling and reconfirming that Reform has become a natural home for disgruntled Tories, as has been true since 2024.
January 12, 2026 at 12:08 PM
Very much agree with @profjanegreen.bsky.social - though I think there may be some significance in terms of what it signals about Reform's likely left-right placing and how in time that may push some of the 'Left-Authoritarian' (back) to non-voting.
The government should not only be stopping using the platform they should also be issuing urgent safeguarding advice to all institutions not to post pictures there.
I call on my party and my government to remove themselves entirely from X and communicate with the public where they actually participate online and can be protected from such illegality.
January 8, 2026 at 1:51 PM
The government should not only be stopping using the platform they should also be issuing urgent safeguarding advice to all institutions not to post pictures there.
One of those news days where there doesn't seem to be a single place to look that isn't enraging.
January 8, 2026 at 9:19 AM
One of those news days where there doesn't seem to be a single place to look that isn't enraging.
Day 19 (maybe I stopped counting when we swapped to 5G) and it is finally fixed. Only took four engineer visits to find the problem 🤦 Sky and the NHS appear to use the same let's just try lots of things til something works approach.
Day 4. All very excited when new router arrives...doesn't seem to help 😞
Day 3: Luckily youngest Teen has an all day cricket camp, eldest teen will sleep til the afternoon. Open Reach you have five hours*
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
* Emergency cookie baking equipment bought for tomorrow.
January 7, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Day 19 (maybe I stopped counting when we swapped to 5G) and it is finally fixed. Only took four engineer visits to find the problem 🤦 Sky and the NHS appear to use the same let's just try lots of things til something works approach.
Marking done, time to start thinking about public opinion and elections again. And I think we might need a new word beyond fragmentation for what is going on here in the 25-49 age group
January 6, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Marking done, time to start thinking about public opinion and elections again. And I think we might need a new word beyond fragmentation for what is going on here in the 25-49 age group