Paula Surridge
@psurridge.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
Thought the plan was to smash the smuggling gangs not emulate them.
The Sun has been told Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will on Monday propose confiscating jewellery, watches, necklaces from asylum seekers to meet asylum costs
This reflects the most controversial aspect of the Danish scheme - the Jewellery Law. The toughest Labour MPs thought this was OTT
This reflects the most controversial aspect of the Danish scheme - the Jewellery Law. The toughest Labour MPs thought this was OTT
November 17, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Thought the plan was to smash the smuggling gangs not emulate them.
You are not going to be able to pull together the anti-Reform coalition if voters don't see you are meaningfully different to Reform.
Mad reaction from the government given an increasing threat on the left.
Mad reaction from the government given an increasing threat on the left.
November 16, 2025 at 9:06 PM
You are not going to be able to pull together the anti-Reform coalition if voters don't see you are meaningfully different to Reform.
Mad reaction from the government given an increasing threat on the left.
Mad reaction from the government given an increasing threat on the left.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
Note that this is for voters in general - I need to redo the graph, but strongly suspect the black line would be even higher for Labour voters... you know, the people that Labour need to win at the next election.
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
November 14, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Note that this is for voters in general - I need to redo the graph, but strongly suspect the black line would be even higher for Labour voters... you know, the people that Labour need to win at the next election.
An impressive level of incompetence to manage this on the same day as Doctors strike begins.
*UK GILTS PLUNGE AT OPEN, 10-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS 13 BPS TO 4.57%
November 14, 2025 at 8:28 AM
An impressive level of incompetence to manage this on the same day as Doctors strike begins.
So have I got this right, there was an imposter pretending to be the chancellor that gave a speech about the need to made difficult choices like tax rises?
November 14, 2025 at 7:31 AM
So have I got this right, there was an imposter pretending to be the chancellor that gave a speech about the need to made difficult choices like tax rises?
Reposted by Paula Surridge
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
In an electorate that is fragmented across multiple dimensions and no longer anchored to political parties, every party aiming for a double figure vote share must bring together a coalition like this and they all have fault-lines within them.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The real Reform voters have been revealed – it’s a slapdash coalition Farage will struggle to hold together | Aditya Chakrabortty
This is no single bloc marching under one ideology, or even a mass of ‘red-wall’ voters. What unites them is a desire for something different, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:38 AM
In an electorate that is fragmented across multiple dimensions and no longer anchored to political parties, every party aiming for a double figure vote share must bring together a coalition like this and they all have fault-lines within them.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Except it isn't broadly split between left and right flanks unless you position the LibDems to the right.
Half of voters who backed Labour in 2024 have deserted the party, according to internal polling shared with Labour MPs, reports PolHome's Harriet Symonds
The figures suggest Labour's lost vote is broadly split between its left and right flanks, demonstrating the electoral challenge facing the party
The figures suggest Labour's lost vote is broadly split between its left and right flanks, demonstrating the electoral challenge facing the party
Half of 2024 Labour Voters Have Gone Elsewhere, Party Privately Tells MPs
Half of voters who backed Labour at the last general election have deserted the party, according to internal polling shared with Labour MPs.
www.politicshome.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Except it isn't broadly split between left and right flanks unless you position the LibDems to the right.
If you get a chance to see this don't hesitate. Haven't laughed so much since we saw The Play that Goes Wrong four year ago. Just wonderfully clever and silly in exactly the right amounts.
Mischief, the multi-award-winning creators of The Play That Goes Wrong, have released brand new production images for their upcoming festive comedy Christmas Carol Goes Wrong.
Production Images Released for Christmas Carol Goes Wrong Ahead of West End Run and UK Tour
Mischief, the multi-award-winning creators of The Play That Goes Wrong, have released brand new production images for their upcoming festive comedy Christmas Carol Goes Wrong.
theatreweekly.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:38 PM
If you get a chance to see this don't hesitate. Haven't laughed so much since we saw The Play that Goes Wrong four year ago. Just wonderfully clever and silly in exactly the right amounts.
Even to someone who is paying attention it feels a lot like the 22/23 Tory period, to those just glancing it must be even more so. And at the same time no area of their lives feels as if it has improved.
It’s both that less than 18 months in Downing Street are effectively saying they have lost confidence of colleagues, while briefing against a cabinet minister responsible for the area their voters really care about (which just looks to public like more of last years of Tories)
November 12, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Even to someone who is paying attention it feels a lot like the 22/23 Tory period, to those just glancing it must be even more so. And at the same time no area of their lives feels as if it has improved.
Maybe they've decided to try chaos with Ed Miliband
BBC News - Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say
www.bbc.com/news/article...
BBC News - Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Prime Minister will fight any attempt to replace him, friends say
Allies of the prime minister are worried his job might be under immediate threat.
www.bbc.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Maybe they've decided to try chaos with Ed Miliband
BBC News - Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say
www.bbc.com/news/article...
BBC News - Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Misread this as global insanity and I'm not sure that's any less accurate.
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Confronting foreign policy challenges - UK in a changing Europe
UK in a Changing Europe has assembled a panel of some of the world's top experts to analyse on the key foreign policy challenges we face.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Misread this as global insanity and I'm not sure that's any less accurate.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Confronting foreign policy challenges - UK in a changing Europe
UK in a Changing Europe has assembled a panel of some of the world's top experts to analyse on the key foreign policy challenges we face.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
⏰ TOMORROW ⏰
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
🌍 Global instability has become the new normal and our multilateral system seems increasingly fragile
Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and @fromtga.bsky.social as they discuss key challenges👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
Fell down a facebook rabbit hole thanks to something a family member shared. Labour should be really concerned, the tone and circulation of posts now has a simialr feel to Conservatives in 2023 but with an added side of far right memes. Facebook worries me far more than X
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Fell down a facebook rabbit hole thanks to something a family member shared. Labour should be really concerned, the tone and circulation of posts now has a simialr feel to Conservatives in 2023 but with an added side of far right memes. Facebook worries me far more than X
In the last week I've used up five hours chasing a repeat prescription and an emergency outpatient appointment for my son.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
November 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM
In the last week I've used up five hours chasing a repeat prescription and an emergency outpatient appointment for my son.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
Phone the outpatients line every day at 8.30am, wait in the 20 person queue and hope for a cancellation is the current advice. Exhausted and fed up.
As part of semianrs on campaigning and media effects this week we rewatched campaign videos from the 2024 GE including this one...I don't expect huge numbers saw the whole thing but it was snipped as shorts and no wonder 18 months on people feel disappointed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
This time, vote Labour. Watch our new party election broadcast
YouTube video by Labour Party
www.youtube.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:57 AM
As part of semianrs on campaigning and media effects this week we rewatched campaign videos from the 2024 GE including this one...I don't expect huge numbers saw the whole thing but it was snipped as shorts and no wonder 18 months on people feel disappointed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b5...
Not for the first time this year I design a seminar activity for three groups of students and find only five turn up.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
November 6, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Not for the first time this year I design a seminar activity for three groups of students and find only five turn up.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
I take the view they are adults, if they don't want to attend then that's their choice, but the University just seem incapable of accepting this and adapting.
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
November 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
Reposted by Paula Surridge
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
Younger people who voted Labour are going Green, young people who couldn't vote or didn't vote are going Green. Many uncertainties in politics but here's one sure thing: this group will be bigger at next GE than now - voting age going down and more people becoming eligible.
Where is the Green vote coming from? Only 4 in 10 current Green voters backed the Party last July. 1 in 5 opted for Labour while a similar number didn’t/couldn’t vote in a mirror of Reform UK’s attraction of previous non voters.
October 29, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Younger people who voted Labour are going Green, young people who couldn't vote or didn't vote are going Green. Many uncertainties in politics but here's one sure thing: this group will be bigger at next GE than now - voting age going down and more people becoming eligible.
What I am taking from the Musk Tolkekn tweet is we need to send the LibDems (the gentle people of the shire) to take X to Mount Doom.
October 29, 2025 at 10:13 AM
What I am taking from the Musk Tolkekn tweet is we need to send the LibDems (the gentle people of the shire) to take X to Mount Doom.
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
October 28, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
If I've understood correctly, things could be worse than they seem for Labour (and the Conservatives) here because the MRP modelling of the don't knows is giving about 3 in 4 of them back to their 'home' party.
Our latest Westminster voting intention (26-27 Oct) has Labour on their lowest figure ever recorded by YouGov, with the Greens on their highest
Reform UK: 27% (+1 from 19-20 Oct)
Labour: 17% (-3)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Reform UK: 27% (+1 from 19-20 Oct)
Labour: 17% (-3)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 15% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
October 28, 2025 at 10:39 AM
If I've understood correctly, things could be worse than they seem for Labour (and the Conservatives) here because the MRP modelling of the don't knows is giving about 3 in 4 of them back to their 'home' party.
Reposted by Paula Surridge
The danger for Labour is that the Greens are also finding/creating a highly motivated group who dislike Labour. Too early to be sure how that plays out.
October 26, 2025 at 8:45 AM
The danger for Labour is that the Greens are also finding/creating a highly motivated group who dislike Labour. Too early to be sure how that plays out.