Paula Surridge
@psurridge.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values.
SubStack: https://pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6d0z&utm_campaign=pub-shar
Also, even though I enjoy a good segmentation as much as anyone, why do half of them end up being names like a boy band. Contrarian youth surely on track for Christmas #1
November 13, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Also, even though I enjoy a good segmentation as much as anyone, why do half of them end up being names like a boy band. Contrarian youth surely on track for Christmas #1
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
November 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
October 28, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Been a difficult first half of the teaching term. Recharged with a weekend in the arcades, piers and cafes of the Somerset coast. And in case there are any other square peg academics it brought me to this.
For a while the Yougov 'headline' VI has been using the MRP methodology to predict how don't knows would vote (think it also models turnout)
October 28, 2025 at 10:41 AM
For a while the Yougov 'headline' VI has been using the MRP methodology to predict how don't knows would vote (think it also models turnout)
Reminded me of this (have a young cricket with a birthday in 10 days)
October 22, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Reminded me of this (have a young cricket with a birthday in 10 days)
Polling people - can anyone shed any light on how Techne generate these social grade categories?
October 21, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Polling people - can anyone shed any light on how Techne generate these social grade categories?
This has started to appear across local Facebook groups...I'm curious about the idea of new management (covered the date and location as not wanting to promote it further)
October 16, 2025 at 7:43 AM
This has started to appear across local Facebook groups...I'm curious about the idea of new management (covered the date and location as not wanting to promote it further)
Quite the subtitle - one for @timbale.bsky.social's series of Britpol essay questions.
October 14, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Quite the subtitle - one for @timbale.bsky.social's series of Britpol essay questions.
Deliberately not divided to be equal parts. Can get a sense of the relative sizes from this
pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/values-and...
pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/values-and...
October 8, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Deliberately not divided to be equal parts. Can get a sense of the relative sizes from this
pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/values-and...
pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/values-and...
Meanwhile the Conservatives are losing even more support in those groups Reform dominate. And Labour have lost support most heavily among groups of the economic left
October 7, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Meanwhile the Conservatives are losing even more support in those groups Reform dominate. And Labour have lost support most heavily among groups of the economic left
You can see clearly the party space fragmenting as Reform dominate the authoritarian (and increasingly the 'moderate') groups but staying virtually at 0 on the liberal left. While the Greens move to a strong second place in the liberal left group but struggle outside that group.
October 7, 2025 at 11:12 AM
You can see clearly the party space fragmenting as Reform dominate the authoritarian (and increasingly the 'moderate') groups but staying virtually at 0 on the liberal left. While the Greens move to a strong second place in the liberal left group but struggle outside that group.
Top advice from AI here (but if anyone does happen to know of a local umpiring course please send details, my son wants to learn to umpire for his DoE award).
October 2, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Top advice from AI here (but if anyone does happen to know of a local umpiring course please send details, my son wants to learn to umpire for his DoE award).
I liked Jane's tweet so much I turned it into a chart - the bump for the new Reform voters and the Conservatives is crucial to Labour, the Conservatives and Reform.
October 2, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I liked Jane's tweet so much I turned it into a chart - the bump for the new Reform voters and the Conservatives is crucial to Labour, the Conservatives and Reform.
Here's what the polling looked like ~14 months after the 2019 election and ~14 months after the 2017 election. So about those two hung parliaments.....or rather the two largest majorities in recent times.
(I did not deliberately choose polls with the same Con/Lab figs, selected purely on date)
(I did not deliberately choose polls with the same Con/Lab figs, selected purely on date)
September 26, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Here's what the polling looked like ~14 months after the 2019 election and ~14 months after the 2017 election. So about those two hung parliaments.....or rather the two largest majorities in recent times.
(I did not deliberately choose polls with the same Con/Lab figs, selected purely on date)
(I did not deliberately choose polls with the same Con/Lab figs, selected purely on date)
Been teaching seminars this week on whether polling should be banned during campaigns and after this I think maybe it should be banned except for during campaigns. Utterly mad way to frame a poll 4 years out from a general election.
September 26, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Been teaching seminars this week on whether polling should be banned during campaigns and after this I think maybe it should be banned except for during campaigns. Utterly mad way to frame a poll 4 years out from a general election.
They've been very transparent about the methodology but they do start out with more than 1 in 3 don't know responses and I think that's a problem as the people saying don't know aren't random. This is last week's, 2/3rds then still say don't know after the squeeze question.
September 25, 2025 at 12:23 PM
They've been very transparent about the methodology but they do start out with more than 1 in 3 don't know responses and I think that's a problem as the people saying don't know aren't random. This is last week's, 2/3rds then still say don't know after the squeeze question.
If I have time to make charts I might use the superpowers one - have this one currently which is good for talking about sampling effects too
September 19, 2025 at 12:31 PM
If I have time to make charts I might use the superpowers one - have this one currently which is good for talking about sampling effects too
The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
August 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
Other local area groups haven't taken it down, blacked out the hotel name
August 20, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Other local area groups haven't taken it down, blacked out the hotel name
This one had slipped past me, but now I am wondering about this review of a book about the party he set up based on the accounts of insiders (yours was much more informative :))
July 11, 2025 at 10:56 AM
This one had slipped past me, but now I am wondering about this review of a book about the party he set up based on the accounts of insiders (yours was much more informative :))
In the future academics will mostly spend their time correcting bibliographies....asked ai to produce 500 words on the NRS Social Grade, then add references. Spot the mistakes...
June 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
In the future academics will mostly spend their time correcting bibliographies....asked ai to produce 500 words on the NRS Social Grade, then add references. Spot the mistakes...
I started with trends (stuck on 2015 until comparable 2024 data comes for longer time series)
June 27, 2025 at 11:41 AM
I started with trends (stuck on 2015 until comparable 2024 data comes for longer time series)
The flow of the Conservative 2019 vote to vote in 2024 is quite similar by education levels. There are fewer Con-Reform among higher educated but it isn't as big a difference as we might expect (31% in low education group 22% in high)
June 27, 2025 at 11:34 AM
The flow of the Conservative 2019 vote to vote in 2024 is quite similar by education levels. There are fewer Con-Reform among higher educated but it isn't as big a difference as we might expect (31% in low education group 22% in high)
A much improved version now (I think!)
June 24, 2025 at 2:05 PM
A much improved version now (I think!)