Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London.
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
Pinned
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed
Voters cared a lot less about tax than you might think.
theconversation.com
December 15, 2025 at 1:14 PM
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 12, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
The US president also singles out London, saying it is now a ‘different place’ and refers to the mayor Sadiq Khan as ‘disgusting’ ⬇️
Trump: Europe is decaying group of nations led by weak people
The US president also singles out London, saying it is now a ‘different place’ and refers to the mayor Sadiq Khan as ‘disgusting’
www.thetimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
December 3, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
December 1, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
www.ucl.ac.uk
November 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
renewal.org.uk
November 28, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
Next week, in the final instalment of our autumn online seminar series, @williamlallen.bsky.social will present important work on the effects of data visualisation of refugee inflows.
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
*PSA EVENT* 🚨NEXT WEEK🚨 #Political #Psychology Research Seminar Series: ‘Visualisation Choices about Refugees Have Delimited Impacts Along Partisan Lines’ with William Allen @unisouthampton.bsky.social
📆 4 Dec 12 - 13.00, online
➡️ buff.ly/UVnPScZ
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 4 Dec 12 - 13.00, online
➡️ buff.ly/UVnPScZ
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
November 27, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
November 21, 2025 at 12:53 PM
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
But some manly problems are undeniable
www.economist.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:10 PM
So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
www.politicshome.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
November 13, 2025 at 10:09 AM
There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with @stefaniereher.bsky.social, Rob Johns, @lbernardi.bsky.social by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 13 November
➡️ Full details and speakers
📆 13 November
➡️ Full details and speakers
Political Psychology - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
‘Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK’ with Stefanie Reher (Strathclyde), with Rob Johns and Luca Bernardi 13 November – 12:00 to 13:00 In recent years, an…
buff.ly
November 5, 2025 at 11:13 AM
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with @stefaniereher.bsky.social, Rob Johns, @lbernardi.bsky.social by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 13 November
➡️ Full details and speakers
📆 13 November
➡️ Full details and speakers
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK), @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series!
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
November 11, 2025 at 3:05 PM
This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK), @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series!
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.
It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
renewal.org.uk
November 10, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 23, 2025 at 7:18 AM
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 22, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
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buff.ly
October 21, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
theconversation.com
October 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour