Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London.
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
Pinned
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.
It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
renewal.org.uk
November 10, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 23, 2025 at 7:18 AM
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 22, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
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buff.ly
October 21, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
theconversation.com
October 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
“I want it now, I want it now
Not the promises of what tomorrow brings”
Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
Not the promises of what tomorrow brings”
Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:42 AM
“I want it now, I want it now
Not the promises of what tomorrow brings”
Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
Not the promises of what tomorrow brings”
Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
theconversation.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:39 AM
My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
The always clever @mbarnfield.bsky.social sharing some excellent research today.
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The always clever @mbarnfield.bsky.social sharing some excellent research today.
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.
Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government.
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters.
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
October 20, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters.
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government.
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government.
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social!
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - 'Do Events Change Minds or Samples? Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference', with Klara Müller @klaramueller.bsky.social. Organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 23 Oct, 12.00 - 13.00, online
➡️
📆 23 Oct, 12.00 - 13.00, online
➡️
Political Psychology - Do Events Change Minds or Samples? A Framework for Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
‘Do Events Change Minds or Samples? A Framework for Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference’ with Klara Müller (Mannheim) 23 October – 12:00 to 13:00 From political…
buff.ly
October 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social!
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
👇Find out more about the #Political #Psychology Autumn seminar series 👇taking place online 12.00 - 13.00 on
📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec
📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 16, 2025 at 10:24 AM
👇Find out more about the #Political #Psychology Autumn seminar series 👇taking place online 12.00 - 13.00 on
📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec
📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits & Party Members’ Campaign Activity, organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec
➡️ Full details and speakers
📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec
➡️ Full details and speakers
Political Psychology - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Members’ Campaign Activity | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
‘The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Members’ Campaign Activity’ with Stavroula Chrona (Sussex), with Tim Bale and Paul Webb 16 October – 12:00 to 13:00 We offer a novel…
buff.ly
October 15, 2025 at 1:00 PM
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits & Party Members’ Campaign Activity, organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec
➡️ Full details and speakers
📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec
➡️ Full details and speakers
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Our autumn online seminar series gets started in two days' time, with a fascinating presentation on the personalities of UK party members - work co-authored by Stavroula Chrona, @timbale.bsky.social and Paul Webb.
For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....
For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....
October 14, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Our autumn online seminar series gets started in two days' time, with a fascinating presentation on the personalities of UK party members - work co-authored by Stavroula Chrona, @timbale.bsky.social and Paul Webb.
For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....
For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Our autumn seminar series starts next Thursday 16th October at 12:00!
Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members.
More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members.
More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 10, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Our autumn seminar series starts next Thursday 16th October at 12:00!
Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members.
More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members.
More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks @psapolpsychology.bsky.social for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.
Finally, three weeks later on Thursday 4th December at 12:00, @williamlallen.bsky.social rounds out the series by presenting important insights into the partisan attitudinal effects of data visualisation of refugee numbers.
Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c939c6...
October 2, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks @psapolpsychology.bsky.social for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
September 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used:
Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless
Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental
Please stop using it!
Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless
Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental
Please stop using it!
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
September 11, 2025 at 11:01 AM
I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used:
Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless
Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental
Please stop using it!
Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless
Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental
Please stop using it!
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
September 10, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
This article is refreshing not least because it starts from the point of thinking about voters as they actually are, not as we might wish them to be. The key idea — that voters aren’t pundits and political science shouldn’t expect them to be — is crucial.
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
August 11, 2025 at 10:35 AM
This article is refreshing not least because it starts from the point of thinking about voters as they actually are, not as we might wish them to be. The key idea — that voters aren’t pundits and political science shouldn’t expect them to be — is crucial.