Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
@aleferna.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Researcher in Political Science at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona | Political behaviour, public opinion and philosophy of social sciences.
Pinned
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Which factors affect how Americans react to political violence? Our paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social addressing this question just got a volume and issue number! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
When Push Comes to Shove: How Americans Excuse and Condemn Political Violence - Political Behavior
What factors do Americans find most important when evaluating acts of political violence? Normatively, details regarding the violent act (e.g., the target and violence severity) should determine the p...
link.springer.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Which factors affect how Americans react to political violence? Our paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social addressing this question just got a volume and issue number! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
For the historical polling nerds out there, an article about our project with @ropercenter.bsky.social that digitised ~800 surveys by Gallup poll in Britain between 1955 and 1991 has been published in JEPOP. The merged dataset contains over three-quarters of a million respondents.
Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991
From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of...
www.tandfonline.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
For the historical polling nerds out there, an article about our project with @ropercenter.bsky.social that digitised ~800 surveys by Gallup poll in Britain between 1955 and 1991 has been published in JEPOP. The merged dataset contains over three-quarters of a million respondents.
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
December 16, 2025 at 10:53 AM
📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
Great to present yesterday in Barcelona the latest version (and hopefully last!) of joint work with @klaramueller.bsky.social. Now looking forward to expanding the project further!
It was also in some way my official debut for UAB 🙂
PS: You may want to follow @bcnpolisci.bsky.social too!
It was also in some way my official debut for UAB 🙂
PS: You may want to follow @bcnpolisci.bsky.social too!
Last panels of JCPOP 2025! 🔔
Join us in room 24.S01 for a panel on Representation, in room 24.019 for a panel on Economy and welfare, and in room 24.021 for one on Public opinion 👥🧠
Join us in room 24.S01 for a panel on Representation, in room 24.019 for a panel on Economy and welfare, and in room 24.021 for one on Public opinion 👥🧠
December 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Great to present yesterday in Barcelona the latest version (and hopefully last!) of joint work with @klaramueller.bsky.social. Now looking forward to expanding the project further!
It was also in some way my official debut for UAB 🙂
PS: You may want to follow @bcnpolisci.bsky.social too!
It was also in some way my official debut for UAB 🙂
PS: You may want to follow @bcnpolisci.bsky.social too!
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
December 1, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Personal news! 📣
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.
Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!
A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
November 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
I just had to update my beliefs on the topic: this is brilliant research!
(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
OSF
doi.org
November 27, 2025 at 7:19 PM
I just had to update my beliefs on the topic: this is brilliant research!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
November 18, 2025 at 9:23 PM
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
Solid work on (absent) attitudinal age gaps in the UK 👇
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Solid work on (absent) attitudinal age gaps in the UK 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
The Netherlands is trying to draw a line under a year of chaos with fresh elections – will it work?
Prime Minister Dick Schoof called fresh elections following the first collapse of his government, which would go on to fall a second time within a few months.
doi.org
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Focusing on Sweden, this study finds that PhD students begin their programs with similar psychiatric medication use as other master’s graduates, but usage rises sharply to about 40 percent higher by the fifth year before declining after graduation.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities
doi.org
October 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
September 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
This is extremely good!
💥Online first:
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
September 15, 2025 at 9:57 AM
This is extremely good!
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
September 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Full circle moment ⭕:
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
September 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
September 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
➡️ Reform lead by 15%, their largest ever lead in an opinion poll.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
August 21, 2025 at 12:36 PM
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
August 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...