Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
@aleferna.bsky.social
Social scientist - Research political behaviour, public opinion, (mis)perceptions and philosophy of social sciences.
Pinned
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
The Netherlands is trying to draw a line under a year of chaos with fresh elections – will it work?
Prime Minister Dick Schoof called fresh elections following the first collapse of his government, which would go on to fall a second time within a few months.
doi.org
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Focusing on Sweden, this study finds that PhD students begin their programs with similar psychiatric medication use as other master’s graduates, but usage rises sharply to about 40 percent higher by the fifth year before declining after graduation.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities
doi.org
October 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
September 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
This is extremely good!
💥Online first:
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"
by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
September 15, 2025 at 9:57 AM
This is extremely good!
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
September 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Full circle moment ⭕:
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
September 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
September 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
➡️ Reform lead by 15%, their largest ever lead in an opinion poll.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
Would give them a majority of ~140 seats.
August 21, 2025 at 12:36 PM
This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything.
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now.
Reform at 395!
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
August 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
August 4, 2025 at 11:01 AM
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)
August 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)
I never re-read the book 'All souls', by Javier Marías, but my memory of it (and the reason why I think I liked it) is because it mocked/despised a mindless fascination with some characters and traditions orbiting Oxford.
August 1, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I never re-read the book 'All souls', by Javier Marías, but my memory of it (and the reason why I think I liked it) is because it mocked/despised a mindless fascination with some characters and traditions orbiting Oxford.
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
🧪How did COVID-19 affect citizens’ democratic preferences?
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
July 23, 2025 at 11:01 AM
🧪How did COVID-19 affect citizens’ democratic preferences?
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Very cool paper! - Pretty sure most people will adopt this check right away. And even if I'm wrong, you know Reviewer 2 will ask for it anyway 😉
We hope that our new robustness checks will be widely adopted, as we believe that this can increase the validity of published UESD research considerably.
July 1, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Very cool paper! - Pretty sure most people will adopt this check right away. And even if I'm wrong, you know Reviewer 2 will ask for it anyway 😉
Unfortunately, I won't be able to participate in #EPSA2025 😔 - But as I'm coauthor of 3 pieces that will be presented, I feel compelled to share the details in case you're interested in any! - A thread follows 🧵
@epsanet.bsky.social
PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time
@epsanet.bsky.social
PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time
June 25, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Unfortunately, I won't be able to participate in #EPSA2025 😔 - But as I'm coauthor of 3 pieces that will be presented, I feel compelled to share the details in case you're interested in any! - A thread follows 🧵
@epsanet.bsky.social
PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time
@epsanet.bsky.social
PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time
Very relevant findings for survey research and survey methodology: Attitudes toward democracy and previous survey engagement appear to play a greater role in panel attrition than whether respondents supported the winning or losing side in the last election 👇🏽
🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨
Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.
The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇
academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.
The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇
academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition
Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio
academic.oup.com
June 24, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Very relevant findings for survey research and survey methodology: Attitudes toward democracy and previous survey engagement appear to play a greater role in panel attrition than whether respondents supported the winning or losing side in the last election 👇🏽
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
Psychological inoculation is a very popular intervention against online misinfo, but it hasn't been tested using real-world outcomes in realistic scenarios.
In a new paper just published in PNAS Nexus, this is what we did: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Short version: It didn't really work.
In a new paper just published in PNAS Nexus, this is what we did: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Short version: It didn't really work.
June 5, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Psychological inoculation is a very popular intervention against online misinfo, but it hasn't been tested using real-world outcomes in realistic scenarios.
In a new paper just published in PNAS Nexus, this is what we did: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Short version: It didn't really work.
In a new paper just published in PNAS Nexus, this is what we did: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Short version: It didn't really work.
Reposted by Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵
May 24, 2025 at 10:03 AM
New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵