Ralph Scott
@ralphscott.bsky.social
Leverhulme research fellow in politics at Bristol uni. ITV psephologist.
Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things.
ralphscott.co.uk
Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things.
ralphscott.co.uk
Pinned
Ralph Scott
@ralphscott.bsky.social
· Jul 14
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Across many countries, non-probability web surveys provide more liberal estimates of public opinion that face-to-face interviews
December 23, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Across many countries, non-probability web surveys provide more liberal estimates of public opinion that face-to-face interviews
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
December 20, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
So many people believe in the magic labour tree
“We can train existing UK citizens to do the job”
Sure, but over how long and in what number?
“We just need to pay people more”
So what else are we currently doing that we don’t need to be doing? And/or, which taxes are we going to increase to fund it?
Sure, but over how long and in what number?
“We just need to pay people more”
So what else are we currently doing that we don’t need to be doing? And/or, which taxes are we going to increase to fund it?
December 19, 2025 at 4:10 PM
So many people believe in the magic labour tree
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Our neighbours at @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social are hiring 3 (!) tenure-track faculty members:
– Assistant Professor in Political Economy
– Assistant Professor in International Politics
– Assistant Professor in Political Science
Deadline: 15 Jan 2026
More details: jobs.tcd.ie
@tcddublin.bsky.social
– Assistant Professor in Political Economy
– Assistant Professor in International Politics
– Assistant Professor in Political Science
Deadline: 15 Jan 2026
More details: jobs.tcd.ie
@tcddublin.bsky.social
December 19, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Our neighbours at @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social are hiring 3 (!) tenure-track faculty members:
– Assistant Professor in Political Economy
– Assistant Professor in International Politics
– Assistant Professor in Political Science
Deadline: 15 Jan 2026
More details: jobs.tcd.ie
@tcddublin.bsky.social
– Assistant Professor in Political Economy
– Assistant Professor in International Politics
– Assistant Professor in Political Science
Deadline: 15 Jan 2026
More details: jobs.tcd.ie
@tcddublin.bsky.social
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
December 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Defeated Ted Knight (through the passage of time). Retook Lambeth (through mean reversion after 2002). Beat the BNP (because 2010 was a general election year). Masterminded the 2020 and 2024 elections (by going “just tell them what they want to hear and worry about implementation later”).
Another McSweeney profile talking about rescuing Lambeth from Militant and Ted Knight
By the time McSweeney arrived in London, Militant had gone and Lambeth Council was led by Jim Dickson - a Blairite and now Labour MP for Dartford
It's mad mythology www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/lab...
By the time McSweeney arrived in London, Militant had gone and Lambeth Council was led by Jim Dickson - a Blairite and now Labour MP for Dartford
It's mad mythology www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/lab...
December 18, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Defeated Ted Knight (through the passage of time). Retook Lambeth (through mean reversion after 2002). Beat the BNP (because 2010 was a general election year). Masterminded the 2020 and 2024 elections (by going “just tell them what they want to hear and worry about implementation later”).
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Hey, I'm here! And I'm not the only one who's run into this!
December 17, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Hey, I'm here! And I'm not the only one who's run into this!
Reposted by Ralph Scott
New English Housing Survey data!
Interesting tenure trends figures; the growth of the private rented sector has stalled since 2016, though claims of an 'exodus' seem greatly exaggerated.
Increasing numbers now paying their own mortgage instead of their landlords - good🏡
Interesting tenure trends figures; the growth of the private rented sector has stalled since 2016, though claims of an 'exodus' seem greatly exaggerated.
Increasing numbers now paying their own mortgage instead of their landlords - good🏡
December 17, 2025 at 10:50 AM
New English Housing Survey data!
Interesting tenure trends figures; the growth of the private rented sector has stalled since 2016, though claims of an 'exodus' seem greatly exaggerated.
Increasing numbers now paying their own mortgage instead of their landlords - good🏡
Interesting tenure trends figures; the growth of the private rented sector has stalled since 2016, though claims of an 'exodus' seem greatly exaggerated.
Increasing numbers now paying their own mortgage instead of their landlords - good🏡
Reposted by Ralph Scott
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
December 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Wales is polarised by age and by education, with university graduates choosing Plaid in 2026, while Reform doing well with those who left school at 16 with no qualifications or after GCSEs/equivalent
December 17, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Wales is polarised by age and by education, with university graduates choosing Plaid in 2026, while Reform doing well with those who left school at 16 with no qualifications or after GCSEs/equivalent
Reposted by Ralph Scott
“He said, ‘I’m going to die – please see my family [and tell them] that I went down to save people’s lives’,” Alkanj recounted, before Ahmed tackled the shooter, taking his rifle.
this guy, honestly. amazing.
this guy, honestly. amazing.
Ahmed al Ahmed, the man who tackled one of the Bondi killers, became an Australian citizen 3 years ago.
His deed was "his way of conveying his gratitude for staying in Australia, for being granted citizenship."
He took 5 bullets, and fears he'll lose his left arm.
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
His deed was "his way of conveying his gratitude for staying in Australia, for being granted citizenship."
He took 5 bullets, and fears he'll lose his left arm.
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
December 15, 2025 at 5:08 PM
“He said, ‘I’m going to die – please see my family [and tell them] that I went down to save people’s lives’,” Alkanj recounted, before Ahmed tackled the shooter, taking his rifle.
this guy, honestly. amazing.
this guy, honestly. amazing.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
The dropout rate for apprenticeships is 38%. The dropout rate for universities is 6%. We talk a lot about the variable quality of university courses and nowhere near enough about the variable quality of apprenticeships
With a report suggesting half of graduates would earn more if they had done an apprenticeship instead, our polling shows that 46% of Britons think apprenticeships better prepare young people for the future - only 6% say the same of degrees, while 43% say both equally
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
December 15, 2025 at 11:42 AM
The dropout rate for apprenticeships is 38%. The dropout rate for universities is 6%. We talk a lot about the variable quality of university courses and nowhere near enough about the variable quality of apprenticeships
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Just needs a horseshoe in the background.
Well, there's a photo I never expected to see in my life. Noam Chomsky palling around with Steve Bannon.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Just needs a horseshoe in the background.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
🚨 “Can I tell you how many times in the last 45 years the European Court of Human Rights has ruled against the UK when it comes to deporting people from this country - only 13 times - in 45 years”
Hugely important point made by @vicderbyshire.bsky.social 👏
Hugely important point made by @vicderbyshire.bsky.social 👏
December 11, 2025 at 8:38 PM
🚨 “Can I tell you how many times in the last 45 years the European Court of Human Rights has ruled against the UK when it comes to deporting people from this country - only 13 times - in 45 years”
Hugely important point made by @vicderbyshire.bsky.social 👏
Hugely important point made by @vicderbyshire.bsky.social 👏
Reposted by Ralph Scott
And we were told councils not wanting people putting flags up was 'health safety gone mad'?
December 12, 2025 at 10:25 AM
And we were told councils not wanting people putting flags up was 'health safety gone mad'?
Reposted by Ralph Scott
"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee."
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
December 11, 2025 at 6:09 PM
"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee."
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
i think a (perhaps underappreciated) aspect of this whole situation is the extent to which every elite profession is filled with people who excel at drawing attention and want to be famous more than they want to do the actual job
December 11, 2025 at 2:18 PM
i think a (perhaps underappreciated) aspect of this whole situation is the extent to which every elite profession is filled with people who excel at drawing attention and want to be famous more than they want to do the actual job
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Ongoing decimation of British universities part 252:
Apx. 1000 academic staff at University of Essex just received formal ‘risk of redundancy’ letters via email.
Please share @ucuessex.bsky.social @ucu.org.uk
Apx. 1000 academic staff at University of Essex just received formal ‘risk of redundancy’ letters via email.
Please share @ucuessex.bsky.social @ucu.org.uk
December 11, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Ongoing decimation of British universities part 252:
Apx. 1000 academic staff at University of Essex just received formal ‘risk of redundancy’ letters via email.
Please share @ucuessex.bsky.social @ucu.org.uk
Apx. 1000 academic staff at University of Essex just received formal ‘risk of redundancy’ letters via email.
Please share @ucuessex.bsky.social @ucu.org.uk
Reposted by Ralph Scott
New ANES Data Release! A new release of the ANES Cumulative Data File is now available for download. Over 200 variables have been updated to include data from the ANES 2024 Time Series Study. Consider it a holiday gift of data from your friends at ANES!
electionstudies.org/data-center/
electionstudies.org/data-center/
Data Center - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
December 11, 2025 at 5:08 PM
New ANES Data Release! A new release of the ANES Cumulative Data File is now available for download. Over 200 variables have been updated to include data from the ANES 2024 Time Series Study. Consider it a holiday gift of data from your friends at ANES!
electionstudies.org/data-center/
electionstudies.org/data-center/
Reposted by Ralph Scott
"Smug is the emotional tone of Mastermind. I want the buyer to feel judged by the box. Like the box is already disappointed in them. If you don’t want smug, don’t name the game Mastermind. This isn’t fucking checkers. This is a duel in a seminar room at Davos."
The Mastermind Box Cover: What the Hell Were They Thinking?
- - -INVICTA GAMES, LTD. Packaging Team — Official Minutes Project: Mastermind / New Cover Presentation MARTIN SMITH (Marketing Senior Vice Presi...
buff.ly
December 11, 2025 at 2:02 PM
"Smug is the emotional tone of Mastermind. I want the buyer to feel judged by the box. Like the box is already disappointed in them. If you don’t want smug, don’t name the game Mastermind. This isn’t fucking checkers. This is a duel in a seminar room at Davos."
Reposted by Ralph Scott
One reason why Britain’s debate over education and the economy is so bad is there is so much snobbery about what the course provider is *called*: a high quality vocational course is…not that different, in cost terms, to a degree with a placement year, and only our snobbery means we don’t notice this
Dear god, man, you came back for another round of this? You do realize that the skills base that high-productivity production relies on is now heavily college-based. right? American manufacturing output *has* gone up while employment goes down. You are not getting back the Fordist compact...
December 10, 2025 at 4:35 PM
One reason why Britain’s debate over education and the economy is so bad is there is so much snobbery about what the course provider is *called*: a high quality vocational course is…not that different, in cost terms, to a degree with a placement year, and only our snobbery means we don’t notice this
Reposted by Ralph Scott
This story from yesterday didn't perhaps get the attention it should have. It's utterly shocking. It follows dogged reporting by the Observer (in its pre-sale era), which was repeatedly rejected by the academy federation concerned.
www.theguardian.com/education/20...
www.theguardian.com/education/20...
London academy staff instilled ‘climate of fear’ among pupils
Report finds children at Mossbourne Victoria Park traumatised by disciplinary measures ‘designed to humiliate’
www.theguardian.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:44 PM
This story from yesterday didn't perhaps get the attention it should have. It's utterly shocking. It follows dogged reporting by the Observer (in its pre-sale era), which was repeatedly rejected by the academy federation concerned.
www.theguardian.com/education/20...
www.theguardian.com/education/20...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
The Voting and Democracy Research Group welcomes Professor Rune Stubager (Aarhus University) for a keynote presentation.
🗓️ Friday 23 January 2026, 11h00
📍 Aula Emma Vorlat (campus Faculty of Social Sciences KU Leuven)
ℹ️ Info: lnkd.in/dMvzG36U
📝 Registration (by 14 January 2026): lnkd.in/dZ3ZBSGh
🗓️ Friday 23 January 2026, 11h00
📍 Aula Emma Vorlat (campus Faculty of Social Sciences KU Leuven)
ℹ️ Info: lnkd.in/dMvzG36U
📝 Registration (by 14 January 2026): lnkd.in/dZ3ZBSGh
December 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The Voting and Democracy Research Group welcomes Professor Rune Stubager (Aarhus University) for a keynote presentation.
🗓️ Friday 23 January 2026, 11h00
📍 Aula Emma Vorlat (campus Faculty of Social Sciences KU Leuven)
ℹ️ Info: lnkd.in/dMvzG36U
📝 Registration (by 14 January 2026): lnkd.in/dZ3ZBSGh
🗓️ Friday 23 January 2026, 11h00
📍 Aula Emma Vorlat (campus Faculty of Social Sciences KU Leuven)
ℹ️ Info: lnkd.in/dMvzG36U
📝 Registration (by 14 January 2026): lnkd.in/dZ3ZBSGh
Reposted by Ralph Scott
well no, they won't 'just' raise values - quite a few of them just won't capture that possible excess value and that's fine! and in the cases where they don't, quite a few will be far happier that it's the artists taking it or with the non-price rationing
One of my unpopular opinions is that this, from Ryan Bourne, is correct
December 10, 2025 at 9:24 AM
well no, they won't 'just' raise values - quite a few of them just won't capture that possible excess value and that's fine! and in the cases where they don't, quite a few will be far happier that it's the artists taking it or with the non-price rationing