Owen Winter
@owenwntr.bsky.social
Political data journalist at The Economist
My first newsletter as a political correspondent! I'm excited to have joined the Britain department this week for a stint covering politics 🇬🇧
January 6, 2026 at 5:27 PM
My first newsletter as a political correspondent! I'm excited to have joined the Britain department this week for a stint covering politics 🇬🇧
Perhaps worth remembering that polls about US intervention in Venezuela conducted before today are no longer informative. Expect public opinion to polarise very quickly (dampening any effect on Americans’ views of Trump):
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
January 3, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Perhaps worth remembering that polls about US intervention in Venezuela conducted before today are no longer informative. Expect public opinion to polarise very quickly (dampening any effect on Americans’ views of Trump):
The idea of an electoral backlash against hunting bans is pure fantasy. Voters are overwhelmingly urban or suburban. Few rural voters have anything to do with the hunts. Of those who do, even fewer would ever consider voting Labour. You couldn’t design an issue less likely to affect Labour voters!
December 28, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The idea of an electoral backlash against hunting bans is pure fantasy. Voters are overwhelmingly urban or suburban. Few rural voters have anything to do with the hunts. Of those who do, even fewer would ever consider voting Labour. You couldn’t design an issue less likely to affect Labour voters!
I wonder when was the last time a major party got nine (9!) votes in a council by-election...
December 20, 2025 at 11:25 AM
I wonder when was the last time a major party got nine (9!) votes in a council by-election...
Unhelpful for the government's efforts to win back young people from the Greens
December 17, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Unhelpful for the government's efforts to win back young people from the Greens
Reposted by Owen Winter
Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12)
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 6:44 AM
Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12)
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Trump's approval has rebounded a little in this week's update of our tracker www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 16, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Trump's approval has rebounded a little in this week's update of our tracker www.economist.com/interactive/...
I like this comparison using @tomforth.co.uk's data www.tomforth.co.uk/circlepopula... Paris is very dense in the centre, London and New York are similar populations until you get to 15-20km from the centre
December 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I like this comparison using @tomforth.co.uk's data www.tomforth.co.uk/circlepopula... Paris is very dense in the centre, London and New York are similar populations until you get to 15-20km from the centre
Hadn't realised that in the last five years London overtook New York's population for the first time since the 1960s
December 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Hadn't realised that in the last five years London overtook New York's population for the first time since the 1960s
Labour could lose every constituency in Sheffield, for the first time since 1931. Or it could hold all five seats. On the uncertainty of the next election: substack.com/home/post/p-...
December 11, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Labour could lose every constituency in Sheffield, for the first time since 1931. Or it could hold all five seats. On the uncertainty of the next election: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Owen Winter
Owen Winter, our political data journalist, on the future of Britain’s oldest party
Blighty newsletter: Why the Conservatives could be kingmakers
Owen Winter, our political data journalist, on the future of Britain’s oldest party
econ.st
December 10, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Owen Winter, our political data journalist, on the future of Britain’s oldest party
The Conservatives are at the sharp end of FPTP. Gain a few points of vote share and they could win 100 seats and challenge Labour/Reform for the top spot. Lose a few and they could be wiped off the map. My Blighty newsletter: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Blighty newsletter: Why the Conservatives could be kingmakers
Owen Winter, our political data journalist, on the future of Britain’s oldest party
www.economist.com
December 10, 2025 at 10:50 AM
The Conservatives are at the sharp end of FPTP. Gain a few points of vote share and they could win 100 seats and challenge Labour/Reform for the top spot. Lose a few and they could be wiped off the map. My Blighty newsletter: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
A note of caution on MRPs, which cannot hope to capture election day dynamics at this point in the Parliament: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Polls predicting the next British election are not to be trusted
Too much uncertainty lies ahead
www.economist.com
December 8, 2025 at 11:31 AM
A note of caution on MRPs, which cannot hope to capture election day dynamics at this point in the Parliament: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Not as big a search bump for Polanski as his first QT appearance. But sustained interest still far higher than any Green leader before him
December 6, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Not as big a search bump for Polanski as his first QT appearance. But sustained interest still far higher than any Green leader before him
A majority of Syrians approve of the EU and US, according to Arab Barometer www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/what-s...
December 5, 2025 at 10:59 AM
A majority of Syrians approve of the EU and US, according to Arab Barometer www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/what-s...
Reposted by Owen Winter
This is great work, from the data to the insight to the presentation
Welcome to slot-machine Britain! Our cover this week is on First Past the Post, the voting system that turns multi-party politics into a lottery.
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 4, 2025 at 6:41 PM
This is great work, from the data to the insight to the presentation
Reposted by Owen Winter
Excellent to see this from The Economist. We are slow walking into a constitutional crisis driven by the electoral system, and very few people are taking it seriously enough yet.
Welcome to slot-machine Britain! Our cover this week is on First Past the Post, the voting system that turns multi-party politics into a lottery.
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 4, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Excellent to see this from The Economist. We are slow walking into a constitutional crisis driven by the electoral system, and very few people are taking it seriously enough yet.
Reposted by Owen Winter
good model www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 4, 2025 at 4:27 PM
good model www.economist.com/interactive/...
Welcome to slot-machine Britain! Our cover this week is on First Past the Post, the voting system that turns multi-party politics into a lottery.
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 4, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Welcome to slot-machine Britain! Our cover this week is on First Past the Post, the voting system that turns multi-party politics into a lottery.
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
Featuring our new modelling of British elections: www.economist.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Owen Winter
When the electorate fragments, first past the post electoral system becomes a slot machine. In an election tomorrow, a remarkably wide spread is possible.
This week's UK cover story on the coming legitimacy crisis featuring @owenwntr.bsky.social's new model
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
This week's UK cover story on the coming legitimacy crisis featuring @owenwntr.bsky.social's new model
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
December 4, 2025 at 2:21 PM
When the electorate fragments, first past the post electoral system becomes a slot machine. In an election tomorrow, a remarkably wide spread is possible.
This week's UK cover story on the coming legitimacy crisis featuring @owenwntr.bsky.social's new model
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
This week's UK cover story on the coming legitimacy crisis featuring @owenwntr.bsky.social's new model
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Reposted by Owen Winter
“If there is a Conservative government, I can sleep at night.” A right-wing populist Reform UK government, however, “is a different proposition”.
Starmer speaks to @zannymb.economist.com; note by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Starmer speaks to @zannymb.economist.com; note by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Our interview with Sir Keir Starmer
Britain’s prime minister understands the size of the moment. He just does not know how to meet it
www.economist.com
December 4, 2025 at 9:53 AM
“If there is a Conservative government, I can sleep at night.” A right-wing populist Reform UK government, however, “is a different proposition”.
Starmer speaks to @zannymb.economist.com; note by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Starmer speaks to @zannymb.economist.com; note by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Looking forward to this www.economist.com/insider/the-...
December 4, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Looking forward to this www.economist.com/insider/the-...
Roughly half of the Conservative Party's supporters dislike Reform UK and a chunk really hate them. Curious what they do in this scenario www.ft.com/content/ecf5...
Farage tells donors he expects Reform UK will do an election deal with Tories
Rightwing populist party could pursue a merger or pact with the Conservatives
www.ft.com
December 2, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Roughly half of the Conservative Party's supporters dislike Reform UK and a chunk really hate them. Curious what they do in this scenario www.ft.com/content/ecf5...
Reposted by Owen Winter
But we know that putting all the parties available in the question means you overstate minor parties and so a more accurate question gets a less accurate result. So it's possible this does the same the other way round if the default of Con/Lab etc isn't there.
Anyhow, glad I'm not doing it anymore!
Anyhow, glad I'm not doing it anymore!
November 30, 2025 at 5:56 PM
But we know that putting all the parties available in the question means you overstate minor parties and so a more accurate question gets a less accurate result. So it's possible this does the same the other way round if the default of Con/Lab etc isn't there.
Anyhow, glad I'm not doing it anymore!
Anyhow, glad I'm not doing it anymore!