G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
What the Democrats can learn from the UK Labour Party's complete implosion after moving right on immigration
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o...
Trump's job approval in our average at FiftyPlusOne.news is 40% approve, 56.3% disapprove, for a net of -16.3 today.
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
December 25, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Trump's job approval in our average at FiftyPlusOne.news is 40% approve, 56.3% disapprove, for a net of -16.3 today.
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
good polling
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. So, we asked them what messages they'd have for Trump and Democratic leaders if they did have the chance to speak their mind.
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
What Americans would tell Donald Trump or Democratic leaders if they could | CNN Politics
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. But if they had the chance to tell Washington something, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds, they’d say ple...
www.cnn.com
December 25, 2025 at 6:08 PM
good polling
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. So, we asked them what messages they'd have for Trump and Democratic leaders if they did have the chance to speak their mind.
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
What Americans would tell Donald Trump or Democratic leaders if they could | CNN Politics
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. But if they had the chance to tell Washington something, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds, they’d say ple...
www.cnn.com
December 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. So, we asked them what messages they'd have for Trump and Democratic leaders if they did have the chance to speak their mind.
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...
no — i do not think the ellisons hired bari weiss to 'dismantle public trust in cbs news.' they hired her to go soft on trump so they can have an easier time getting mergers through. destroying public trust in the org is a byproduct
This is generally true, but *not* as applies to Barry Weiss — she was hired to dismantle public trust in CBS News, not to manage the organization through a challenging time of declining general public trust.
the GOP has waged a decades-long campaign against the press that has left it weak and frankly paranoid
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
December 24, 2025 at 8:58 PM
no — i do not think the ellisons hired bari weiss to 'dismantle public trust in cbs news.' they hired her to go soft on trump so they can have an easier time getting mergers through. destroying public trust in the org is a byproduct
the GOP has waged a decades-long campaign against the press that has left it weak and frankly paranoid
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
A lot of people just don’t realize how unpopular Trump is
The backlash to ABC/Disney canceling Kimmel shows why it's important for businesses and the public to understand that two-thirds of Americans are not Trump voters
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 24, 2025 at 8:53 PM
the GOP has waged a decades-long campaign against the press that has left it weak and frankly paranoid
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back
this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...
An early Merry Xmas to everyone who has subscribed to my Substack & made it possible for me to do data-driven work as the news industry implodes. 2026 is going to be a lot of work, but important, and maybe sometimes fun. New readers can get 20% off thru 12/31! www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe?co...
Subscribe to Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion, and elections. Evidence, not spin. Learn what the data really says. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a Substack p...
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 24, 2025 at 8:35 PM
An early Merry Xmas to everyone who has subscribed to my Substack & made it possible for me to do data-driven work as the news industry implodes. 2026 is going to be a lot of work, but important, and maybe sometimes fun. New readers can get 20% off thru 12/31! www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe?co...
looks like trump's approval rating is heading back down fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
December 24, 2025 at 8:23 PM
looks like trump's approval rating is heading back down fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
trump at -43 with independents would be catastrophic for republicans in 2028.
![Gallup poll | 12/1-12/15
President Trump approval crosstabs (%)
🟥Overall (59/36 disapprove) [-23]
🟥Democratic (93/3 disapprove) [-90]
🟩Republican (89/8 approve) [+81]
🟥Independent (68/25 disapprove) [-43]
🟥18-34 (68/25 disapprove) [-43]
🟥35-54 (59/36 disapprove) [-23]
🟥55+ (53/43 disapprove) [-10]
🟥No college (55/37 disapprove) [-18]
🟥College graduate (59/37 disapprove) [-22]
🟥Male (53/42 disapprove) [-11]
🟥Female (64/30 disapprove) [-34]
🟥White (52/46 disapprove) [-6]
🟥Non-white (71/21 disapprove) [-50]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreifnv6vxufu6icjvsd5toirz3lmqkzertdpdnlqh7q44momevhfjqq@jpeg)
December 23, 2025 at 1:40 PM
trump at -43 with independents would be catastrophic for republicans in 2028.
but inflation was so low in 2019!!
💰Trump’s wealth increased by about $2.5B since his reelection, to $6.9B
💰 Eric’s increased 10x, to $400M.
💰 Don Jr.’s 6x, to $300M.
💰 Barron, a college sophomore, is worth $150M.
💰 Eric’s increased 10x, to $400M.
💰 Don Jr.’s 6x, to $300M.
💰 Barron, a college sophomore, is worth $150M.
His policies are picking winners and losers — and blurring the lines between business and government. n.pr/48P2QSb
December 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM
but inflation was so low in 2019!!
not just cbs and cnn
CBS and CNN Are Being Sacrificed to Trump (Franklin Foer/The Atlantic)
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
Main Link | memeorandum Permalink
December 22, 2025 at 6:01 PM
not just cbs and cnn
seems notable
In YouGov polling this week, less than half of Republicans said they strongly approved of Trump. www.ms.now/opinion/poll...
December 22, 2025 at 5:59 PM
seems notable
when they say "take the country back," they're not talking about winning elections
Republicans control literally every lever of federal power right now.
JD Vance: "If you miss Charlie Kirk…do you promise to take the country back from the people who took his life?"
December 22, 2025 at 12:12 AM
when they say "take the country back," they're not talking about winning elections
why would someone give their 10 year old access to AI tools, esp with photo/camera capabilities?
December 22, 2025 at 12:09 AM
why would someone give their 10 year old access to AI tools, esp with photo/camera capabilities?
10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...
10 charts show how Americans feel about prices and health care
Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:00 PM
10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...
A November YouGov poll had ICE favorability underwater by 14 points among all Americans and 37(!) points among political independents today.yougov.com/politics/art...
December 21, 2025 at 1:38 AM
A November YouGov poll had ICE favorability underwater by 14 points among all Americans and 37(!) points among political independents today.yougov.com/politics/art...
tomorrow's data roundup is scheduled at the blog: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...
10 charts show how Americans feel about prices and health care
Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 21, 2025 at 12:37 AM
tomorrow's data roundup is scheduled at the blog: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...
also, these "WAR" values (a) are derived from a statistical model that produces ideologically convenient results that no other open-source model replicates, (b) lack controls for important factors like fundraising and candidate experience, and (c) completely ignore uncertainty in the data. not good!
it is one thing to say "here is what our measurements tell us about the playing field," it is something very different to leap from that to "and here is why we have a better understanding of your specific circumstance and your particular electorate than you, the person who represents the district"
December 20, 2025 at 10:56 PM
also, these "WAR" values (a) are derived from a statistical model that produces ideologically convenient results that no other open-source model replicates, (b) lack controls for important factors like fundraising and candidate experience, and (c) completely ignore uncertainty in the data. not good!
the index of consumer sentiment (current expectations) is at an all time low because trump voters are catching on to the facts the rest of us have been covering for a year
December 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
the index of consumer sentiment (current expectations) is at an all time low because trump voters are catching on to the facts the rest of us have been covering for a year
one of the phrases here is 'pissed as a fart'
It's quite fitting that all I can manage after last night's office party is to stare at this mesmerising list of booze-related slang words
www.economist.com/interactive/...
www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 19, 2025 at 4:47 PM
one of the phrases here is 'pissed as a fart'
Can I just say 2 things: First, Matt fails to see how these two sentences are different:
"Trump is weak on the economy and highlighting it is bad for him"
"Trump is weak on the economy, so Democrats shouldn't talk about immigration"
I think this says a lot about his ideological priors
"Trump is weak on the economy and highlighting it is bad for him"
"Trump is weak on the economy, so Democrats shouldn't talk about immigration"
I think this says a lot about his ideological priors
Here's a good post from Elliott Morris, the leader of the anti-Yglesias bandwagon, about how Trump's biggest political vulnerability is the cost of living and how Trump is screwing up by drawing more attention to it.
bsky.app/profile/gell...
bsky.app/profile/gell...
Trump's White House speech on affordability shows his team is desperate to try anything to help his numbers (except, of course, change the policies that majorities of Americans disapprove of)
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
December 19, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Can I just say 2 things: First, Matt fails to see how these two sentences are different:
"Trump is weak on the economy and highlighting it is bad for him"
"Trump is weak on the economy, so Democrats shouldn't talk about immigration"
I think this says a lot about his ideological priors
"Trump is weak on the economy and highlighting it is bad for him"
"Trump is weak on the economy, so Democrats shouldn't talk about immigration"
I think this says a lot about his ideological priors
Of course the UMich index of current conditions had to hit a new low 30 minutes after I published this article. Would have been a good peg! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
Polls: Voters blame Trump for their economic woes
In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Of course the UMich index of current conditions had to hit a new low 30 minutes after I published this article. Would have been a good peg! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
"nominal prices remain elevated and people are worried about impacts from leadership" seems like a pretty good explanation of consumer sentiment, IMO
December 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
"nominal prices remain elevated and people are worried about impacts from leadership" seems like a pretty good explanation of consumer sentiment, IMO
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
if I was trying to improve consumer sentiment I would simply announce good economic policies instead of bad ones
December 19, 2025 at 3:54 PM
if I was trying to improve consumer sentiment I would simply announce good economic policies instead of bad ones
great read
wrote about Kalshi's business being about 5% truth machine/95% sportsbook (even if they refuse to mention it)
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money
Kalshi’s ‘truth machine’ is financialising differences of opinion (about sports)
www.ft.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:46 PM
great read
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
From @gelliottmorris.com in his excellent weekly in Numbers email.
From @gelliottmorris.com in his excellent weekly in Numbers email.
Polls: Voters blame Trump for their economic woes
In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 19, 2025 at 2:44 PM
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...
From @gelliottmorris.com in his excellent weekly in Numbers email.
From @gelliottmorris.com in his excellent weekly in Numbers email.