G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
Let me say this nicely… If you are going to post screenshots from our website, please link to it. It’s really easy and frankly the least you can do. Our head of research, Mary Radcliffe, is the best and fastest in the world at finding polls, and she deserves credit for her hard work!
PPP poll | 2/2-2/3 LV
Illinois Senate Democratic primary 2026
🟦Raja Krishamoorthi 34%
🟦Juliana Stratton 23%
🟦Robin Kelly 8%
Illinois Senate Democratic primary 2026
🟦Raja Krishamoorthi 34%
🟦Juliana Stratton 23%
🟦Robin Kelly 8%
February 9, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Let me say this nicely… If you are going to post screenshots from our website, please link to it. It’s really easy and frankly the least you can do. Our head of research, Mary Radcliffe, is the best and fastest in the world at finding polls, and she deserves credit for her hard work!
does not inspire confidence
🇺🇸HASSETT: SHOULD EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER JOBS NUMBERS. LOWER JOBS NUMBERS SHOULDN'T TRIGGER PANIC
February 9, 2026 at 3:47 PM
does not inspire confidence
Democrats are up 4.6 among registered voters in our House generic ballot average, a new high for the 2026 cycle. (Their margin among likely voters is higher, and we will gradually fade in the LV number over the summer) fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
fiftyplusone.news
February 9, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Democrats are up 4.6 among registered voters in our House generic ballot average, a new high for the 2026 cycle. (Their margin among likely voters is higher, and we will gradually fade in the LV number over the summer) fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
bad bunny 500 electoral votes
February 9, 2026 at 2:24 AM
bad bunny 500 electoral votes
was the DC media market the only one to get the pro-ICE commercial? don’t see a lot of people posting about it.
February 9, 2026 at 1:46 AM
was the DC media market the only one to get the pro-ICE commercial? don’t see a lot of people posting about it.
AT proto is the only exception i make to my new "don't spend any significant amount of time on social media" rule. (i also post and reply to people on reddit, but i don't use any apps) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
February 8, 2026 at 10:03 PM
AT proto is the only exception i make to my new "don't spend any significant amount of time on social media" rule. (i also post and reply to people on reddit, but i don't use any apps) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Reading and drinking coffee and watching cars go buy. Life is good. Strength in Numbers by @gelliottmorris.com is interesting so far
February 8, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Reading and drinking coffee and watching cars go buy. Life is good. Strength in Numbers by @gelliottmorris.com is interesting so far
52 percent of U.S. adults say Trump has made the economy worse, vs 28% who say we are better off because of him www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
52 percent of U.S. adults say Trump has made the economy worse
Three major polls this week show Americans remain deeply pessimistic about affordability, opportunity, and their economic future. Your weekly political data roundup for February 8, 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:03 PM
52 percent of U.S. adults say Trump has made the economy worse, vs 28% who say we are better off because of him www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
“The dominant model of voter decision-making is flawed. I term this the Strategist’s Fallacy—the erroneous assumption that voters reason like political scientists and elite strategists, and that preferences observed today will persist through subsequent electoral cycles.” @gelliottmorris.com
Voters don’t think like strategists.
G. Elliott Morris responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net
February 7, 2026 at 6:00 PM
“The dominant model of voter decision-making is flawed. I term this the Strategist’s Fallacy—the erroneous assumption that voters reason like political scientists and elite strategists, and that preferences observed today will persist through subsequent electoral cycles.” @gelliottmorris.com
in terms of the 'voters trust Rs to handle immigration over Ds' line, 2 points:
1. R advantage has been cut by half/two-thirds since 2024.
2. Public clearly disagrees with Trump on enforcement. Task for Dems is giving voters a coherent alt,
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
1. R advantage has been cut by half/two-thirds since 2024.
2. Public clearly disagrees with Trump on enforcement. Task for Dems is giving voters a coherent alt,
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
February 7, 2026 at 2:54 PM
in terms of the 'voters trust Rs to handle immigration over Ds' line, 2 points:
1. R advantage has been cut by half/two-thirds since 2024.
2. Public clearly disagrees with Trump on enforcement. Task for Dems is giving voters a coherent alt,
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
1. R advantage has been cut by half/two-thirds since 2024.
2. Public clearly disagrees with Trump on enforcement. Task for Dems is giving voters a coherent alt,
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
trump creating the incentive and permission structure for democrats to do insane 2010-era gerrymandering of their own may turn out to be one of the biggest self-owns of all time. dems are now pretty likely to emerge with an advantage from the 2025-26 redistricting wars
February 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM
trump creating the incentive and permission structure for democrats to do insane 2010-era gerrymandering of their own may turn out to be one of the biggest self-owns of all time. dems are now pretty likely to emerge with an advantage from the 2025-26 redistricting wars
Some thoughts:
1. Gerrymandering is terrible and a betrayal of fundamental democratic principles
2. Democrats, unfortunately, had to betray those principles to prevent the country from falling further into auth-right politics
3. The self-own by Trump is, yes, absolutely hilarious
1. Gerrymandering is terrible and a betrayal of fundamental democratic principles
2. Democrats, unfortunately, had to betray those principles to prevent the country from falling further into auth-right politics
3. The self-own by Trump is, yes, absolutely hilarious
February 6, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Some thoughts:
1. Gerrymandering is terrible and a betrayal of fundamental democratic principles
2. Democrats, unfortunately, had to betray those principles to prevent the country from falling further into auth-right politics
3. The self-own by Trump is, yes, absolutely hilarious
1. Gerrymandering is terrible and a betrayal of fundamental democratic principles
2. Democrats, unfortunately, had to betray those principles to prevent the country from falling further into auth-right politics
3. The self-own by Trump is, yes, absolutely hilarious
I'm looking for a place to publish state- and congressional district-level Trump approval ratings, overall and by issue. Let me know if you're interested. Data is similar to this: www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/u...
G.O.P. Senators Might Not Realize It, but Not One State Supports the Republican Health Bill (Published 2017)
www.nytimes.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:16 PM
I'm looking for a place to publish state- and congressional district-level Trump approval ratings, overall and by issue. Let me know if you're interested. Data is similar to this: www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/u...
if you spend any significant amount of time on X the everything app, your brain is being cooked
February 6, 2026 at 2:56 PM
if you spend any significant amount of time on X the everything app, your brain is being cooked
donald trump is a trickle-down racist www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
February 6, 2026 at 2:54 PM
donald trump is a trickle-down racist www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
New piece: From body cams to masks to independent investigations of recent shootings, the public supports a wide range of major reforms for ICE/federal agents www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-ameri...
February 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM
New piece: From body cams to masks to independent investigations of recent shootings, the public supports a wide range of major reforms for ICE/federal agents www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-ameri...
Trump’s approval rating is at an All Time Low
Welcome to the Whites Parade
Beating Hard Baby
Hands Up
The Taste of Ice
and (of course) Mister Murder
Welcome to the Whites Parade
Beating Hard Baby
Hands Up
The Taste of Ice
and (of course) Mister Murder
Was this very mid-2000s emo person press-ganged into ICE servitude?
February 6, 2026 at 4:42 AM
Trump’s approval rating is at an All Time Low
Welcome to the Whites Parade
Beating Hard Baby
Hands Up
The Taste of Ice
and (of course) Mister Murder
Welcome to the Whites Parade
Beating Hard Baby
Hands Up
The Taste of Ice
and (of course) Mister Murder
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
today's New Jersey primary is all about the collapse of the Dem party's mighty machine in NJ — their candidate is coming in 4th.
a piece from 2024 in bolts that gives you a window into what's happening right now: boltsmag.org/new-jersey-p...
a piece from 2024 in bolts that gives you a window into what's happening right now: boltsmag.org/new-jersey-p...
February 6, 2026 at 4:12 AM
today's New Jersey primary is all about the collapse of the Dem party's mighty machine in NJ — their candidate is coming in 4th.
a piece from 2024 in bolts that gives you a window into what's happening right now: boltsmag.org/new-jersey-p...
a piece from 2024 in bolts that gives you a window into what's happening right now: boltsmag.org/new-jersey-p...
great tweet
February 6, 2026 at 4:13 AM
great tweet
2morrow morning's post: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-ameri...
What Americans actually want done about ICE
Democratic proposals for reforms earn 60-92% support among U.S. voters
www.gelliottmorris.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:10 AM
2morrow morning's post: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-ameri...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
February 5, 2026 at 10:42 PM
New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
February 5, 2026 at 10:44 PM
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
happening shortly:
G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris.com)
Join me and David Nir of the-downballot.com for a live conversation about ICE, the Texas special, Bannon’s election threats, and more today at 1PM (ET)!…
bsky.app
February 5, 2026 at 5:55 PM
happening shortly:
Join me and David Nir of the-downballot.com for a live conversation about ICE, the Texas special, Bannon’s election threats, and more today at 1PM (ET)!
LIVE SOON: Yes, Dems should talk about ICE
Starting Feb 5 at 1:00 PM EST
open.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Join me and David Nir of the-downballot.com for a live conversation about ICE, the Texas special, Bannon’s election threats, and more today at 1PM (ET)!