G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
closing in on a week among the top ten rising substack publications. thanks to all the newcomers for joining and everyone else for their persistent support!
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM
closing in on a week among the top ten rising substack publications. thanks to all the newcomers for joining and everyone else for their persistent support!
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
November 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea...
November 10, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea...
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
November 8, 2025 at 9:15 PM
"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
Here's a clip from my interview with Paul Krugman on what just happened in the 2025 elections, plus many of the other things I've been writing about US politics recently. Online tomorrow morning www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
November 8, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Here's a clip from my interview with Paul Krugman on what just happened in the 2025 elections, plus many of the other things I've been writing about US politics recently. Online tomorrow morning www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
I do not think that is true will
November 7, 2025 at 6:40 PM
I do not think that is true will
trump heading lower than his approval rating at this point in 2017 — at that time, a historic low for a president at this point in their term. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
November 7, 2025 at 3:06 PM
trump heading lower than his approval rating at this point in 2017 — at that time, a historic low for a president at this point in their term. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 7, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
looks like the gender row in my table published this morning got messed up somehow. apologies. adjusted table and explanation here
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
looks like the gender row in my table published this morning got messed up somehow. apologies. adjusted table and explanation here
Also: This was all utterly predictable. The change in subgroup results from 2024 to 25 is highly correlated with change in Trump's approval ratings among key demographic groups from Jan to Nov.
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
November 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Also: This was all utterly predictable. The change in subgroup results from 2024 to 25 is highly correlated with change in Trump's approval ratings among key demographic groups from Jan to Nov.
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Will household bills rose ~30% from 2021 to 2023, accounting for food and energy. Biggest increase in recent memory for folks. Reasonable to expect that to have a lasting effect on voters' psyches. And over simplistic to argue that the economy was fine in 2024 bc one-yr inflation was back to 3%.
November 7, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Will household bills rose ~30% from 2021 to 2023, accounting for food and energy. Biggest increase in recent memory for folks. Reasonable to expect that to have a lasting effect on voters' psyches. And over simplistic to argue that the economy was fine in 2024 bc one-yr inflation was back to 3%.
some supplemental data from
@electioncord.com
@electioncord.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:52 PM
some supplemental data from
@electioncord.com
@electioncord.com
Basically every country with a statewide election on Tuesday shifted toward Democrats, with the shift driven by both differential partisan turnout patterns and persuasion (looks like 30% turnout 70% persuasion in NJ and VA)
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 6, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Basically every country with a statewide election on Tuesday shifted toward Democrats, with the shift driven by both differential partisan turnout patterns and persuasion (looks like 30% turnout 70% persuasion in NJ and VA)
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
November 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
remember all those hot takes during the primary about how Mamdani was the candidate for rich white liberals? a "champagne socialist" ?
yeah, about that
yeah, about that
November 5, 2025 at 8:14 PM
remember all those hot takes during the primary about how Mamdani was the candidate for rich white liberals? a "champagne socialist" ?
yeah, about that
yeah, about that
we are seeing GOP cope of historic pace and proportion
November 5, 2025 at 7:10 PM
we are seeing GOP cope of historic pace and proportion
"off year elections are not indicative of what's to come, that's what history teaches us"
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
"off year elections are not indicative of what's to come, that's what history teaches us"
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
no it's not! there is a strong relationship between the swing in the VA Gov race and subsequent swing in the midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
Why did the polls underestimate Democrats last night? Here’s one theory and some preliminary evidence for it www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 5, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Why did the polls underestimate Democrats last night? Here’s one theory and some preliminary evidence for it www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
Voters in New Jersey and Virginia who said the economy was their number 1 issue voted 63-35 for Democrats last night.
That’s a sharp reversal from 2024, when Trump won economy voters by 60 points
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
That’s a sharp reversal from 2024, when Trump won economy voters by 60 points
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 5, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Voters in New Jersey and Virginia who said the economy was their number 1 issue voted 63-35 for Democrats last night.
That’s a sharp reversal from 2024, when Trump won economy voters by 60 points
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
That’s a sharp reversal from 2024, when Trump won economy voters by 60 points
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
scheduled. time to get some sleep.
November 5, 2025 at 8:45 AM
scheduled. time to get some sleep.
result in VA is what you'd get with a D+9 national environment
November 5, 2025 at 5:36 AM
result in VA is what you'd get with a D+9 national environment