G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
The president's numbers on prices are where Biden's were during peak inflation in 2022-23.
www.gelliottmorris.com
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
reading is good. we should celebrate people reading in public instead of being on their phones
it's not 'performative' if you're taking pictures of random fucking strangers reading. they're just reading! you're the creepy one!
Oh fuck off
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM
reading is good. we should celebrate people reading in public instead of being on their phones
closing in on a week among the top ten rising substack publications. thanks to all the newcomers for joining and everyone else for their persistent support!
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM
closing in on a week among the top ten rising substack publications. thanks to all the newcomers for joining and everyone else for their persistent support!
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
November 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
The president's numbers on prices are where Biden's were during peak inflation in 2022-23.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
What makes the “best pollsters” of 2024 so accurate?
Primarily it’s a mix of experimentation and biased estimates that get lucky
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:32 PM
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea...
November 10, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea...
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
Can Democrats learn something from Zohran Mamdani’s mobilizing of and strength with first-time voters?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
The Mamdani youthquake in New York City | Weekly roundup for November 9, 2025
The Mayor-elect drove historic turnout and a historically young electorate. Plus: Democrats made inroads with Trump supporters Tuesday; The role of cable news in Trump's 2024 win; + more!
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Can Democrats learn something from Zohran Mamdani’s mobilizing of and strength with first-time voters?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
the problem with using things like Wins Above Replacement to guide party strategy is that electoral skill can change quickly in response to new events and dramatically out of step policy choices. jared golden support trump's tariffs in a seat where they're probably -10 or -20. that's gonna cost you
is he a good fit for his district if he can't run for office successfully anymore?
he _was_ previously a good fit for his district, but that doesn't mean he would be forever
he _was_ previously a good fit for his district, but that doesn't mean he would be forever
November 9, 2025 at 12:52 AM
the problem with using things like Wins Above Replacement to guide party strategy is that electoral skill can change quickly in response to new events and dramatically out of step policy choices. jared golden support trump's tariffs in a seat where they're probably -10 or -20. that's gonna cost you
scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
Mamdani's youthquake in New York City | Weekly roundup for November 9, 2025
The Mayor-elect drove historic turnout and a historically young electorate. Plus: Democrats made inroads with Trump supporters Tuesday; The role of cable news in Trump's 2024 win; + more!
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:40 AM
scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
November 8, 2025 at 9:15 PM
"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
Paul Krugman and I sit down to talk about the 2025 elections. What do Democrats' big wins forecast for 2026? Why are elites from Democratic consultants to The New York Times Editorial Board concluding the wrong lessons from 2024? Why were polls off?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
Podcast with Paul Krugman: What can the 2025 elections tell us about 2026?
Paul asks me about what just happened in the 2025 elections, and I explain why Democratic elites and The New York Times learned the wrong lesson from 2024
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Paul Krugman and I sit down to talk about the 2025 elections. What do Democrats' big wins forecast for 2026? Why are elites from Democratic consultants to The New York Times Editorial Board concluding the wrong lessons from 2024? Why were polls off?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
Here's a clip from my interview with Paul Krugman on what just happened in the 2025 elections, plus many of the other things I've been writing about US politics recently. Online tomorrow morning www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
November 8, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Here's a clip from my interview with Paul Krugman on what just happened in the 2025 elections, plus many of the other things I've been writing about US politics recently. Online tomorrow morning www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...
tough numbers for the golden child of the pro-moderation crowd
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:34 AM
tough numbers for the golden child of the pro-moderation crowd
latino voters swinging 60 points against trump is really something
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 1:10 AM
latino voters swinging 60 points against trump is really something
much appreciated jake. really
Hadn't heard @gelliottmorris.com talk in media much, but damn this is like a clinic of how to do radio. Incredibly clear and systematic.
www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm...
www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm...
Do Moderates Win More Elections? | On the Media | WNYC Studios
Why moderation might not be the silver bullet Democratic strategists seemed to crave.
www.wnycstudios.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:43 PM
much appreciated jake. really
the piece is not supposed to be an exhaustive account of why Harris lost — more a note that the reasons Trump won are not all about Trump
Not sure you're covering the variables here. Kamala Harris ran a useless campaign, gave only two presidential speeches, picked the wrong running mate, and her campaign slogan was "When we fight, we win." What does that mean? Who was she addressing? [As for the memory of "basket of deplorables..."]
November 7, 2025 at 6:31 PM
the piece is not supposed to be an exhaustive account of why Harris lost — more a note that the reasons Trump won are not all about Trump
Going to do a Substack live at 2:30 this afternoon to talk about the results of the elections Tuesday and what they might mean for 2026
open.substack.com/live-stream/...
open.substack.com/live-stream/...
LIVE SOON: Breaking Down Tuesday’s Results with G. Elliott Morris
Starting Nov 7 at 2:30 PM EST
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Going to do a Substack live at 2:30 this afternoon to talk about the results of the elections Tuesday and what they might mean for 2026
open.substack.com/live-stream/...
open.substack.com/live-stream/...
love dot graphs. nice
NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)
November 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
love dot graphs. nice
i think it is possible that people overinterpreted trump's win in 2024 because they wanted harris to win, and have not adjusted their priors for the data showing his agenda is historically unpopular and voters don't want him/his party in charge
November 7, 2025 at 3:22 PM
i think it is possible that people overinterpreted trump's win in 2024 because they wanted harris to win, and have not adjusted their priors for the data showing his agenda is historically unpopular and voters don't want him/his party in charge
trump heading lower than his approval rating at this point in 2017 — at that time, a historic low for a president at this point in their term. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
November 7, 2025 at 3:06 PM
trump heading lower than his approval rating at this point in 2017 — at that time, a historic low for a president at this point in their term. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 7, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:39 PM
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
"...for the realignment theorists, it’s actually worse than it looks. From 2024 to 2025 Republicans lost the most support — 25 points, on average — among the very voters they theorized would remake the GOP into a vast, multi-racial, working-class coalition."
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:03 PM
"...for the realignment theorists, it’s actually worse than it looks. From 2024 to 2025 Republicans lost the most support — 25 points, on average — among the very voters they theorized would remake the GOP into a vast, multi-racial, working-class coalition."