David Nir
@davidnir.com
Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
Pinned
David Nir
@davidnir.com
· Oct 20
Me 'n' @kailigray.bsky.social at No Kings on Oct. 18, 2025. Frogs together strong!
This story about Bobby Pulido reminds me of one about Bill Clinton from his legendary 1992 campaign in New Hampshire.
Pulido: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
Clinton: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Pulido: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
Clinton: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
February 9, 2026 at 9:05 PM
This story about Bobby Pulido reminds me of one about Bill Clinton from his legendary 1992 campaign in New Hampshire.
Pulido: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
Clinton: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Pulido: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
Clinton: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
A "head-turning social media presence" is fantastic newspaper-speak for, "boy is that guy's timeline seriously weird" www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/n...
February 9, 2026 at 7:30 PM
A "head-turning social media presence" is fantastic newspaper-speak for, "boy is that guy's timeline seriously weird" www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/n...
Reposted by David Nir
Since not *everyone* is obsessively checking election results on a Saturday night, you might've missed that Democrats racked up a massive win in rural Louisiana, defending a Trump+13 seat by a 24-point margin in a special election.
Catch up with our complete writeup!
Catch up with our complete writeup!
Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 9, 2026 at 5:11 PM
Since not *everyone* is obsessively checking election results on a Saturday night, you might've missed that Democrats racked up a massive win in rural Louisiana, defending a Trump+13 seat by a 24-point margin in a special election.
Catch up with our complete writeup!
Catch up with our complete writeup!
Reposted by David Nir
losing track of which new group advocating for centrism within the Democratic Party I'm supposed to be paying attention to as a game-changer
February 9, 2026 at 12:46 PM
losing track of which new group advocating for centrism within the Democratic Party I'm supposed to be paying attention to as a game-changer
Reposted by David Nir
Virginia candidates are already maneuvering in anticipation that the Democrats’ new congressional map will be used in this year’s elections. In our newest Morning Digest, we tell you exactly who is likely to run where—and why.
Morning Digest: New Virginia map sets off a round of musical chairs
Our new guide tells you exactly who is likely to run where—and why
www.the-downballot.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Virginia candidates are already maneuvering in anticipation that the Democrats’ new congressional map will be used in this year’s elections. In our newest Morning Digest, we tell you exactly who is likely to run where—and why.
Reposted by David Nir
"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
We’re looking at another very big Dem overperformance tonight—in a Trump+13 district. Dem Chasity Martinez is up 61-39 with more than half the vote in. Notably, like in TX last weekend, the e-day vote has been even *better* for her than the early vote. voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical
February 8, 2026 at 3:14 AM
"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Reposted by David Nir
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:16 AM
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Reposted by David Nir
There’s another Saturday special election! This time, Republicans have a shot at notching their first flip since the start of Trump’s second term. But Dems are not giving up without a fight. See our full preview here —>
Morning Digest: Republicans have their first shot at a special election flip on Saturday
But Louisiana Democrats think they can defend conservative seat on rural turf
www.the-downballot.com
February 7, 2026 at 7:49 PM
There’s another Saturday special election! This time, Republicans have a shot at notching their first flip since the start of Trump’s second term. But Dems are not giving up without a fight. See our full preview here —>
Reposted by David Nir
"Two things are happening at same time: Johnson going whole hog on election conspiracies & Rs trying to distance themselves from Trump's racism. It's a vivid illustration of the problem the GOP has had since Trump showed up on the scene."
New ep w/ @davidnir.com: www.publicnotice.co/p/the-gop-ha...
New ep w/ @davidnir.com: www.publicnotice.co/p/the-gop-ha...
February 6, 2026 at 11:11 PM
"Two things are happening at same time: Johnson going whole hog on election conspiracies & Rs trying to distance themselves from Trump's racism. It's a vivid illustration of the problem the GOP has had since Trump showed up on the scene."
New ep w/ @davidnir.com: www.publicnotice.co/p/the-gop-ha...
New ep w/ @davidnir.com: www.publicnotice.co/p/the-gop-ha...
Reposted by David Nir
VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.
February 6, 2026 at 6:40 PM
VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.
Reposted by David Nir
They’re trying to run the Kilmar Abrego Garcia playbook with a five year old boy in a bunny hat because nobody can find peace if they embarrass the Trump administration publicly. Normal people didn’t like it with Garcia and they really aren’t going to like it for Liam.
BREAKING: The federal government has filed a motion seeking to end asylum claims for the family of Liam Conejo Ramos, according to the lawyer representing the family.
DHS has requested expedited deportation proceedings against family of Liam Conejo Ramos
The federal government has filed a motion seeking to end asylum claims for the family of Liam Conejo Ramos, according to the lawyer representing the family.
www.mprnews.org
February 6, 2026 at 2:51 AM
They’re trying to run the Kilmar Abrego Garcia playbook with a five year old boy in a bunny hat because nobody can find peace if they embarrass the Trump administration publicly. Normal people didn’t like it with Garcia and they really aren’t going to like it for Liam.
There has to be something un-fun about running in a random Republican primary and then, without warning, having your chances instantly evaporate because Trump decided to endorse one of your rivals (whom you're sure is *less* MAGA than you are).
I mean, my sympathy is nil, but this is all so weird.
I mean, my sympathy is nil, but this is all so weird.
February 6, 2026 at 10:26 PM
There has to be something un-fun about running in a random Republican primary and then, without warning, having your chances instantly evaporate because Trump decided to endorse one of your rivals (whom you're sure is *less* MAGA than you are).
I mean, my sympathy is nil, but this is all so weird.
I mean, my sympathy is nil, but this is all so weird.
Reposted by David Nir
Going live at 2pm eastern with @davidnir.com to discuss the GOP learning to love Trump's election fraud delusions and the broader reasons they're starting to panic as the midterms approach.
Tune in: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Tune in: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
LIVE SOON: The GOP has learned to love Trump’s delusions
Starting Feb 6 at 2:00 PM EST
open.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 6:36 PM
Going live at 2pm eastern with @davidnir.com to discuss the GOP learning to love Trump's election fraud delusions and the broader reasons they're starting to panic as the midterms approach.
Tune in: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Tune in: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
The replies to this are just perfect. I really can't pick a favorite.
Was this very mid-2000s emo person press-ganged into ICE servitude?
February 6, 2026 at 4:26 PM
The replies to this are just perfect. I really can't pick a favorite.
Reposted by David Nir
Republicans on Saturday are trying to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat for the first time since they regained the White House. But while Trump carried this rural Louisiana state House seat by 13 points, Democrats aren't giving it up without a fight.
Morning Digest: Republicans have their first shot at a special election flip on Saturday
But Louisiana Democrats think they can defend conservative seat on rural turf
www.the-downballot.com
February 6, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Republicans on Saturday are trying to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat for the first time since they regained the White House. But while Trump carried this rural Louisiana state House seat by 13 points, Democrats aren't giving it up without a fight.
Can someone please explain to me the psychology of people who request *edit access* to publicly available Google sheets that they could *download themselves*? Like, do you seriously think I'm going to allow a stranger to muck up our pres-by-CD table? And for what?
February 6, 2026 at 4:18 AM
Can someone please explain to me the psychology of people who request *edit access* to publicly available Google sheets that they could *download themselves*? Like, do you seriously think I'm going to allow a stranger to muck up our pres-by-CD table? And for what?
I'd rather be last than be wrong
February 6, 2026 at 3:24 AM
I'd rather be last than be wrong
Reposted by David Nir
this is truly some mad king shit. god fucking damn it I am so sick of this
You want your Gateway project funding? Here’s the price. 🤡
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
punchbowl.news/article/whit...
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
punchbowl.news/article/whit...
February 5, 2026 at 11:32 PM
this is truly some mad king shit. god fucking damn it I am so sick of this
Reposted by David Nir
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
February 5, 2026 at 10:44 PM
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
February 5, 2026 at 10:42 PM
New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
I was thinking about this scene from The Usual Suspects. For some doomers, giving up hope offers a certain kind of freedom or release. You're no longer obligated to fight (in this view) because there's nothing to fight for. It's tragic and corrosive, of course, but I believe it's a real phenomenon.
February 5, 2026 at 4:32 PM
I was thinking about this scene from The Usual Suspects. For some doomers, giving up hope offers a certain kind of freedom or release. You're no longer obligated to fight (in this view) because there's nothing to fight for. It's tragic and corrosive, of course, but I believe it's a real phenomenon.
Reposted by David Nir
One of the things I try to instill in my students is that "constitutional" and "unconstitutional" are not legal terms of art. It's OUR Constitution. We're empowered to have views on it, and to view government action or inaction as consistent with our country's norms, values, and traditions—or not.
It's a weird situation to be in, but we need to distinguish between "what the law is" vs. "what SCOTUS says the law is." It may not feel like it, but these are two different things!
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
February 5, 2026 at 3:53 PM
One of the things I try to instill in my students is that "constitutional" and "unconstitutional" are not legal terms of art. It's OUR Constitution. We're empowered to have views on it, and to view government action or inaction as consistent with our country's norms, values, and traditions—or not.
Reposted by David Nir
It's a weird situation to be in, but we need to distinguish between "what the law is" vs. "what SCOTUS says the law is." It may not feel like it, but these are two different things!
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
February 4, 2026 at 6:09 PM
It's a weird situation to be in, but we need to distinguish between "what the law is" vs. "what SCOTUS says the law is." It may not feel like it, but these are two different things!
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3
Reposted by David Nir
Sen. John Cornyn is stuck in an undesirable place less than a month before the Texas GOP primary: His allies are spending a ton but his polls are still bad, and donors reportedly are starting to consider cutting him loose entirely and redirecting their money to other races.
Morning Digest: Republicans contemplate giving up on Cornyn
The senator's allies think a Ken Paxton win would be a catastrophe. Primary voters are unmoved.
www.the-downballot.com
February 5, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Sen. John Cornyn is stuck in an undesirable place less than a month before the Texas GOP primary: His allies are spending a ton but his polls are still bad, and donors reportedly are starting to consider cutting him loose entirely and redirecting their money to other races.
Reposted by David Nir
This is the way.
"The initiative will send observers, who will wear purple safety vests, to areas of reported immigration enforcement activity to collect information 'that may inform future legal action,' according to Attorney General Letitia James." apnews.com/article/ice-...
"The initiative will send observers, who will wear purple safety vests, to areas of reported immigration enforcement activity to collect information 'that may inform future legal action,' according to Attorney General Letitia James." apnews.com/article/ice-...
New York attorney general to deploy legal observers to monitor federal immigration agents
New York’s attorney general has announced plans to deploy legal observers to monitor federal immigration enforcement actions in the state.
apnews.com
February 4, 2026 at 11:39 PM
This is the way.
"The initiative will send observers, who will wear purple safety vests, to areas of reported immigration enforcement activity to collect information 'that may inform future legal action,' according to Attorney General Letitia James." apnews.com/article/ice-...
"The initiative will send observers, who will wear purple safety vests, to areas of reported immigration enforcement activity to collect information 'that may inform future legal action,' according to Attorney General Letitia James." apnews.com/article/ice-...