David Nir
@davidnir.com
Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
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David Nir
@davidnir.com
· 21d
Me 'n' @kailigray.bsky.social at No Kings on Oct. 18, 2025. Frogs together strong!
Dick Durbin on critics of Sunday night's shutdown deal, agreed to by eight Senate Dems:
"Some people need to understand how the Senate works."
Do those people include the 39 Dem Senate caucus members who voted against it? The House minority leader? The chair of the DNC?
Via @mkraju.bsky.social
"Some people need to understand how the Senate works."
Do those people include the 39 Dem Senate caucus members who voted against it? The House minority leader? The chair of the DNC?
Via @mkraju.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Dick Durbin on critics of Sunday night's shutdown deal, agreed to by eight Senate Dems:
"Some people need to understand how the Senate works."
Do those people include the 39 Dem Senate caucus members who voted against it? The House minority leader? The chair of the DNC?
Via @mkraju.bsky.social
"Some people need to understand how the Senate works."
Do those people include the 39 Dem Senate caucus members who voted against it? The House minority leader? The chair of the DNC?
Via @mkraju.bsky.social
Reposted by David Nir
Rep. Elise Stefanik is going to test if a Trump loyalist can be elected governor in a state that swung hard to Trump in 2024, but that he still didn't come close to winning. This didn't work out so well for Jack Ciattarelli last week.
Morning Digest: Elise Stefanik, a Trump lackey screwed over by Trump, launches governor bid
No Republican has won statewide in New York since 2002
www.the-downballot.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Rep. Elise Stefanik is going to test if a Trump loyalist can be elected governor in a state that swung hard to Trump in 2024, but that he still didn't come close to winning. This didn't work out so well for Jack Ciattarelli last week.
Reposted by David Nir
A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-qui...
A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win
I have what I suspect is a somewhat counterintuitive take on the...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 AM
A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-qui...
This is a perfectly reasonable question for voters to ask, but there are many answers Shaheen could give that don't involve capitulation.
Shaheen: "When I talk to my constituents in New Hampshire, you know what they say to me? They say, 'Why can't you all just work together to address the problems that are facing this country?'"
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 AM
This is a perfectly reasonable question for voters to ask, but there are many answers Shaheen could give that don't involve capitulation.
Democrats are extremely fortunate that people still showed up to vote for them in force despite their disgust with the party. That's something that might not last forever.
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Democrats are extremely fortunate that people still showed up to vote for them in force despite their disgust with the party. That's something that might not last forever.
So what will Mike Johnson’s new excuse be for refusing to seat Adelita Grijalva?
November 10, 2025 at 12:23 AM
So what will Mike Johnson’s new excuse be for refusing to seat Adelita Grijalva?
What's so wild about Johnson refusing to seat Grijalva is that even if the discharge petition gets 218 sigs *and* there's a vote *and* it passes ... the Epstein files still won't be released! Even if the bill could pass the Senate, Trump would veto. So it's all about avoiding an uncomfortable vote.
November 8, 2025 at 7:03 PM
What's so wild about Johnson refusing to seat Grijalva is that even if the discharge petition gets 218 sigs *and* there's a vote *and* it passes ... the Epstein files still won't be released! Even if the bill could pass the Senate, Trump would veto. So it's all about avoiding an uncomfortable vote.
Quite the stat from @pbump.com at @howtoreadthisch.art: During all the time that Trump has been president across both terms, the federal government has been shut *1 out of every 23 days*.
www.howtoreadthisch.art/red-versus-b...
www.howtoreadthisch.art/red-versus-b...
November 8, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Quite the stat from @pbump.com at @howtoreadthisch.art: During all the time that Trump has been president across both terms, the federal government has been shut *1 out of every 23 days*.
www.howtoreadthisch.art/red-versus-b...
www.howtoreadthisch.art/red-versus-b...
Reposted by David Nir
"We've been talking about these elections like any other ones & that's important to hold onto. For all the justifiable fear people have since Trump won again about whether we'll have free & fair elections, we pretty much still do"
My latest convo w/ @davidnir.com www.publicnotice.co/p/the-great-...
My latest convo w/ @davidnir.com www.publicnotice.co/p/the-great-...
November 7, 2025 at 10:04 PM
"We've been talking about these elections like any other ones & that's important to hold onto. For all the justifiable fear people have since Trump won again about whether we'll have free & fair elections, we pretty much still do"
My latest convo w/ @davidnir.com www.publicnotice.co/p/the-great-...
My latest convo w/ @davidnir.com www.publicnotice.co/p/the-great-...
This photo has always meant so much to me. I wrote a note about it to accompany today's newsletter.
If you'd like to do as Nancy Pelosi once did, you can subscribe here: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
If you'd like to do as Nancy Pelosi once did, you can subscribe here: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
November 7, 2025 at 10:07 PM
This photo has always meant so much to me. I wrote a note about it to accompany today's newsletter.
If you'd like to do as Nancy Pelosi once did, you can subscribe here: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
If you'd like to do as Nancy Pelosi once did, you can subscribe here: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
Suffice it to say that no blue state will ever pass a one-sided redistricting commission again, and more will ditch theirs until Congress fixes the problem.
Remember when Gavin first floated this and smart politics knowers were all like “I dunno gonna be a heavy lift to pass this, democrats don’t like partisan gerrymandering.”
Apart from FDR in 1936, the highest vote share by a Democratic presidential candidate in California came in 2020, when Biden got 63.4% of the vote.
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 7, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Suffice it to say that no blue state will ever pass a one-sided redistricting commission again, and more will ditch theirs until Congress fixes the problem.
Gotta say, we've been having a *hell* of a fun time on The Downballot's Discord server this week. Don't miss out! sidestack.io/the-downballot
Get Access to private Discord - The Downballot
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sidestack.io
November 7, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Gotta say, we've been having a *hell* of a fun time on The Downballot's Discord server this week. Don't miss out! sidestack.io/the-downballot
Here's something telling about Bill Ferguson's opposition to a redraw: Not a single prominent MD Dem has publicly come out to defend him.
Instead, Gov. Wes Moore is starting to box him in by setting up a new redistricting commission, and people like Louise Lucas are just absolutely dogwalking him.
Instead, Gov. Wes Moore is starting to box him in by setting up a new redistricting commission, and people like Louise Lucas are just absolutely dogwalking him.
VA Senate president pro tem absolutely rips MD Senate president for opposing redistricting.
Notably, VA Dems win massively *after* pushing for a new map.
And that's how it's supposed to work: There has to be an election after an amendment is proposed so voters can weigh in before it can proceed.
Notably, VA Dems win massively *after* pushing for a new map.
And that's how it's supposed to work: There has to be an election after an amendment is proposed so voters can weigh in before it can proceed.
November 7, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Here's something telling about Bill Ferguson's opposition to a redraw: Not a single prominent MD Dem has publicly come out to defend him.
Instead, Gov. Wes Moore is starting to box him in by setting up a new redistricting commission, and people like Louise Lucas are just absolutely dogwalking him.
Instead, Gov. Wes Moore is starting to box him in by setting up a new redistricting commission, and people like Louise Lucas are just absolutely dogwalking him.
Geidner is a mensch and a true public servant. We are lucky to have his dedicated analysis. Don't mistreat him.
An anonymous account is reprimanding me in my DMs b/c I’m not covering something I’ve covered most days over the past month enough for their desires and at the time they desire.
“You can do both,” they say, dismissing the Cornell coverage (though that is not the only thing I’ve covered today).
“You can do both,” they say, dismissing the Cornell coverage (though that is not the only thing I’ve covered today).
November 7, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Geidner is a mensch and a true public servant. We are lucky to have his dedicated analysis. Don't mistreat him.
Reposted by David Nir
Apart from FDR in 1936, the highest vote share by a Democratic presidential candidate in California came in 2020, when Biden got 63.4% of the vote.
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 7, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Apart from FDR in 1936, the highest vote share by a Democratic presidential candidate in California came in 2020, when Biden got 63.4% of the vote.
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Still lots of votes to count, but Prop 50 is currently beating that score with 63.9%. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Pretty amazing that VA House Dems targeted 14 GOP-held seats and flipped 13 of them. The only one they didn't win (#HD34) was still close—52-48!
November 7, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Pretty amazing that VA House Dems targeted 14 GOP-held seats and flipped 13 of them. The only one they didn't win (#HD34) was still close—52-48!
It's amazing how elite institutions keep caving even as voters keep saying—as we just saw on Tuesday—"Fuck all the way off."
Cornell agreed to pay $30m, hand over admissions data with demographic breakdowns, produce annual "campus climate" surveys to check on antisemitism and changes "since October of 2023," and—here's the dumbest part they agreed to—that the govt can open new investigations whenever it wants.
Appeasers.
Appeasers.
Cornell has reached an agreement with the federal government to restore our funding:
statements.cornell.edu/2025/2025110...
statements.cornell.edu/2025/2025110...
November 7, 2025 at 5:29 PM
It's amazing how elite institutions keep caving even as voters keep saying—as we just saw on Tuesday—"Fuck all the way off."
Reposted by David Nir
according to Politico, it's "Decision day for Senate Dems"
of course, that's Politico framing after the GOP got walloped in the election and even Trump says the shutdown hurt them
It's Republicans who need to make some decisions but most DC media can't grasp that
www.politico.com/live-updates...
of course, that's Politico framing after the GOP got walloped in the election and even Trump says the shutdown hurt them
It's Republicans who need to make some decisions but most DC media can't grasp that
www.politico.com/live-updates...
Capitol agenda: Decision day for Senate Dems
Thune is pressing to end the shutdown, but Democrats are likely to stymie GOP efforts.
www.politico.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:24 PM
according to Politico, it's "Decision day for Senate Dems"
of course, that's Politico framing after the GOP got walloped in the election and even Trump says the shutdown hurt them
It's Republicans who need to make some decisions but most DC media can't grasp that
www.politico.com/live-updates...
of course, that's Politico framing after the GOP got walloped in the election and even Trump says the shutdown hurt them
It's Republicans who need to make some decisions but most DC media can't grasp that
www.politico.com/live-updates...
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
Nancy Pelosi is retiring after a groundbreaking electoral career that, as we detail in our new Morning Digest, almost didn't happen.
Morning Digest: Nancy Pelosi, first woman speaker, retires after historic career
The longtime congresswoman left an indelible mark on San Francisco—and America
www.the-downballot.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
There may be a sick logic to this that helps explain why Hochul can veer from good to bad and back again seemingly unpredictably.
It's a sort of oppositional defiance disorder. When Trump tells her to do something, she resists—good. When the people tell her, she also resists—bad. Sigh.
It's a sort of oppositional defiance disorder. When Trump tells her to do something, she resists—good. When the people tell her, she also resists—bad. Sigh.
What is she…a child?
You’re an elected official — get over it.
You’re an elected official — get over it.
November 7, 2025 at 12:26 AM
There may be a sick logic to this that helps explain why Hochul can veer from good to bad and back again seemingly unpredictably.
It's a sort of oppositional defiance disorder. When Trump tells her to do something, she resists—good. When the people tell her, she also resists—bad. Sigh.
It's a sort of oppositional defiance disorder. When Trump tells her to do something, she resists—good. When the people tell her, she also resists—bad. Sigh.
Reposted by David Nir
What I want from each and every one of you is a hard target search of every state house, senate, school board, county legislature, coroner's office, residence, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in the United States including all of its territories. Your fugitive's name is Donald J. Trump.
November 6, 2025 at 8:26 PM
What I want from each and every one of you is a hard target search of every state house, senate, school board, county legislature, coroner's office, residence, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in the United States including all of its territories. Your fugitive's name is Donald J. Trump.
This is precisely why you need outsider politics tipsheets, like @talkingpointsmemo.com, @boltsmag.org, and @the-downballot.com. They never buy into the CW in the first place.
The Insider Politics Sheets Are Scurrying for New Conventional Wisdom talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-i...
The Insider Politics Sheets Are Scurrying for New Conventional Wisdom
One of the most important things to understand about politics is the...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:45 PM
This is precisely why you need outsider politics tipsheets, like @talkingpointsmemo.com, @boltsmag.org, and @the-downballot.com. They never buy into the CW in the first place.
Reposted by David Nir
Since it seems to be victory lap day, we're gonna take one, too. One prominent reporter said in mid-Sept. that a poll showing Prop 50 up 17 points had Dems "quite spooked"—because of conventional wisdom about ballot measure polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
Morning Digest: New independent poll shows voters approving California remap
And why the received wisdom about ballot measure polling might be wrong
www.the-downballot.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Since it seems to be victory lap day, we're gonna take one, too. One prominent reporter said in mid-Sept. that a poll showing Prop 50 up 17 points had Dems "quite spooked"—because of conventional wisdom about ballot measure polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
We explained why that CW might be wrong. Prop 50 beat the polls.
You have a situation now where Donald Trump is blaming Senate Republicans for the shutdown, while Mike Johnson keeps blaming Senate Democrats. Shouldn't Johnson be parroting Trump and demanding the Senate GOP nuke the filibuster, too? Will Trump get pissed at Johnson for not being on the same page?
Scoop: Trump readying "living hell" for GOP senators over nuking filibuster
"He will call them at three o'clock in the morning," one adviser told Axios.
www.axios.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:12 PM
You have a situation now where Donald Trump is blaming Senate Republicans for the shutdown, while Mike Johnson keeps blaming Senate Democrats. Shouldn't Johnson be parroting Trump and demanding the Senate GOP nuke the filibuster, too? Will Trump get pissed at Johnson for not being on the same page?
I've never met Nancy Pelosi, but I will always be stoked that, on election night 2014, she relied on our poll closing times map!
November 6, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I've never met Nancy Pelosi, but I will always be stoked that, on election night 2014, she relied on our poll closing times map!