David Nir
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David Nir
@davidnir.com
11K followers 21 following 1.5K posts
Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com

Our site: https://the-downballot.com
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davidnir.com
Dick Durbin on critics of Sunday night's shutdown deal, agreed to by eight Senate Dems:

"Some people need to understand how the Senate works."

Do those people include the 39 Dem Senate caucus members who voted against it? The House minority leader? The chair of the DNC?

Via @mkraju.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 4:52 PM
davidnir.com
Quite the stat from @pbump.com at @howtoreadthisch.art: During all the time that Trump has been president across both terms, the federal government has been shut *1 out of every 23 days*.

www.howtoreadthisch.art/red-versus-b...
November 8, 2025 at 3:34 PM
davidnir.com
November 8, 2025 at 3:09 PM
davidnir.com
This photo has always meant so much to me. I wrote a note about it to accompany today's newsletter.

If you'd like to do as Nancy Pelosi once did, you can subscribe here: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
The moment I knew we’d really “made it” as a trustworthy source of information about elections is captured in the photo just below, which we were compelled to dust off on the occasion of Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. It’s from election night in 2014. In it, you see the speaker emerita, who was then House minority leader, alongside Steve Israel, the chair of the DCCC at the time. There wasn’t a lot for the subjects of that photo to celebrate that evening, but there’s an important detail they’re both focusing on in the bottom-right corner of the picture. Seen from behind, it might not be obvious what it is at first, but it’s a map—specifically a map showing what time the polls close across the country. I knew this because it was my map. In 2008, unhappy with the available options, I commissioned a map of poll closing times—large, clear, with vivid colors—to run at my original site, the Swing State Project. It was an instant hit, and we’ve updated it every two years, most recently last fall. But I was still astonished to see top politicians poring over it on their most important night of the year. In subsequent election cycles, I would tout the map as “the one used by Nancy Pelosi herself!” I’m still extremely proud of that. If one of the most powerful leaders in the country—and the most powerful woman in American history—feels she can rely on our work, I can imagine no higher endorsement. We’ve tried to live up to those standards each and every day since. If, like Nancy Pelosi, you value our work, then I hope you’ll consider supporting us.
November 7, 2025 at 10:07 PM
davidnir.com
I've never met Nancy Pelosi, but I will always be stoked that, on election night 2014, she relied on our poll closing times map!
November 6, 2025 at 4:02 PM
davidnir.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 AM
davidnir.com
Truly something to behold
November 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
davidnir.com
November 5, 2025 at 5:46 PM
davidnir.com
I cannot tell you how touched I am by this tribute from Martin Longman (@booman23.bsky.social), a contemporary who came up with me during the dawn age of the blogosphere. Last night was incredible, but this has truly made my day—my week! martinlongman.substack.com/p/im-never-d...
What happened last night was that after I got home, turned on MSNBC, grabbed my laptop and settled in on the couch, I got a notification: “Live video with G. Elliott Morris, David Nir, and David Beard now: Election night live coverage, with The Downballot & Strength In Numbers.” G. Elliott Morris’s Strength in Numbers website is something I just began following in the last month or so. He’s very impressive, and I was happy to see him teamed up with the Downballot crew. I immediately put on their three-way video chat coverage. After about five minutes of listening to them, I muted MSNBC. I never turned the volume back on. I never checked the New York Times. I never opened the county and state board of elections sites that I usually track down. I never looked at X-Twitter or BlueSky. I didn’t need any of that because these guys were telling me exactly what I needed to know pretty much exactly when I needed to know it.
November 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
davidnir.com
True. It’s all in there.
November 5, 2025 at 7:36 AM
davidnir.com
Every time someone awful but really old dies, I think of Hendrik Hertzberg's flawless take on Jesse Helms:

"Far too late for it to do anybody any good, Jesse Helms has died."

www.newyorker.com/news/hendrik...
Far too late for it to do anybody any good, Jesse Helms has died. He has done so on Independence Day, which, since he was born too late to own slaves and in too liberal an age to allow him to outlaw sedition, will forever be his only resemblance to Thomas Jefferson and John Adams. It is rude to speak ill of the dead. Luckily, I did so ahead of time.
November 4, 2025 at 7:38 PM
davidnir.com
MD Senate Prez Bill Ferguson still determined to stand in the way of redistricting:

"This is an unbalanced risk reward calculation. It is why there is overwhelming concern about MD joining the mid-cycle redistricting wars."
If the goal of the commission is to hear directly from Marylanders, the Senate will participate in a process which includes in-person listening sessions in each of Maryland’s eight existing congressional districts. Marylanders’ voices remain central to this process, and these public meetings will provide an opportunity for voters to hear about the unique legal barriers in Maryland - barriers that could unintentionally give Donald Trump another one or two of Maryland's congressional seats should this effort backfire in our courts. The Senate Democratic Caucus understands that this is an unbalanced risk reward calculation. It is why there is overwhelming concern about Maryland joining the mid-cycle redistricting wars rather than focusing on tangible, immediate policies to protect our State from this lawless Trump Administration.
November 4, 2025 at 5:01 PM
davidnir.com
It's funny to me that the NYT couldn't resist the faux-folksy "ain't much of a Democratic Party" construction in the headline (which is in fact what Sanders said), but then cleaned it up in its transcript. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/o...
November 3, 2025 at 7:24 PM
davidnir.com
Tapper: Do you see Mamdani as the future of the Democratic Party? Jeffries: No, I think the future of the Democratic Party is going to fall, as far as we’re concerned, relative to the House Democratic Caucus and members who are doing great work all across the country as it relates to our need to both take back control of the House but, in doing so, make sure that we’re communicating to the American people, like, we understand you deserve better than the country that you have received.
November 2, 2025 at 10:02 PM
davidnir.com
Maryland House Speaker Adrienne Jones throws some light shade at her counterpart in the state Senate, Bill Ferguson, after he ruled out a new congressional map.

But Jones and Gov. Wes Moore could put a lot more pressure, including by introducing/supporting a bill for a remap.
October 29, 2025 at 10:15 PM
davidnir.com
More sharp work by Trump's DOJ: Its new indictment of Democratic congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh repeatedly misspells her name. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
October 29, 2025 at 5:47 PM
davidnir.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:16 AM
davidnir.com
Indiana LG Micah Beckwith has called on fellow Republicans in the legislature to further gerrymander the state's congressional map.

Gonna guess his influence just tanked. www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/midw...
October 28, 2025 at 11:27 PM
davidnir.com
Alright, fine, you got me, New York Post. He's not my real uncle either!
October 28, 2025 at 9:06 PM
davidnir.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:02 PM
davidnir.com
I am BEAMING right now, @mattbooker.bsky.social! www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
The message in the memo from national Democrats to the state is clear: It is time to move. “These results suggest that the Democratic base will respond extremely positively to action from the state legislature on redistricting — and that, if public opinion in Maryland follows California’s trajectory, voters outside the Democratic base are likely to follow,” Change Research’s Ben Greenfield and Matt Booker write in the memo.
October 24, 2025 at 3:31 PM
davidnir.com
Mark Warner reportedly wanted Biden to drop out just four months before Election Day (which was the right call). Yet now he says he's confused at how fellow VA Dems might revamp the state's congressional map for an election that's a year away.

(Hint: You delay the primary) x.com/sarahnferris...
October 23, 2025 at 9:14 PM
davidnir.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM
davidnir.com
Me 'n' @kailigray.bsky.social at No Kings on Oct. 18, 2025. Frogs together strong!
David Nir (in inflatable frog costume), holding sign reading, "Frogs Together Strong," and Kaili Joy Gray attend the No Kings march on Oct. 18, 2025, in Times Square in New York, NY.
October 20, 2025 at 3:53 PM
davidnir.com
Times Square
October 19, 2025 at 5:13 PM