Via @dlknowles.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/dlkn...

Maybe I've just aged out of the age band that thinks it's pass agg but I actually think the perceptions might have changed among young people versus, say, five years ago

My colleague @fransham.bsky.social just published v interesting data on absolute numbers vs % change in Britain: www.economist.com/interactive/...

Thanks! Yep hard-right is definitely imperfect (style guide requires it) but the category in this chart is very broad

Using my own graph against me!

Also not sure about using aggregate data when country-level is available. Guess it makes a better chart

No, I am referring to.... salience. As measured by polls

I think concern about immigration is mediated by media coverage and there's a different reaction to regular and irregular migration, but I still believe there is a (lagging) relationship. But even if it doesn't fall with net numbers, there's a good chance it's displaced by another issue

Do you see where I said "Net migration is falling quickly" in my original post?

And here's the section of the piece:

So far Kemi Badenoch has prioritised anti-wokery over economic wonkery. But if you step back from the Westminster drama, there could be a path forward for her party: www.economist.com/britain/2026...

With Labour in office, there has been an (almost overnight) thermostatic reaction against tax and spend. More people say we should reduce taxes and spending than at any point since the 1980s. The Conservatives are much better placed than Reform or the Lib Dems to benefit

The salience of immigration is at its highest since 2014

Meanwhile, the OBR projects real income growth will fall from 2.6% in 2024-25 (the highest since 2015-16) to 0.1% in 2027-28. Rachel Reeves's tax hikes will start to take effect. And despite everything, the Conservatives still have a substantial lead on the issue of the economy.

Reform's rise is closely correlated with the salience of immigration, which is at its highest level since 2014. But there's no guarantee it will be in three years time. Net migration is falling quickly. The government might manage to slow the arrival of small boats (although there's no sign yet)

Last I looked our model showed Reform 26, Lab 26, Green 22. By-election dynamics could totally scramble that, though

Maybe the funniest outcome