Paul Musgrave
@professormusgrave.bsky.social
Professor of political science. Willing expat becoming an unwilling emigre. Essentially millennial, analytically millenarian. https://musgrave.substack.com
LLM won’t take your job, someone who believes your job can be done by LLMs will take your job
and I mean, their jobs are not llmable but by the time everyone realizes it's a disaster, they'll be unemployed
January 21, 2026 at 10:43 AM
LLM won’t take your job, someone who believes your job can be done by LLMs will take your job
Far too many .edu employees are eager to show that their jobs are LLMable
January 21, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Far too many .edu employees are eager to show that their jobs are LLMable
If you kids don’t behave I’m going to turn this plane around
January 21, 2026 at 10:40 AM
If you kids don’t behave I’m going to turn this plane around
If I just post harder, my adversaries will abandon their fundamental convictions
January 21, 2026 at 9:33 AM
If I just post harder, my adversaries will abandon their fundamental convictions
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
just my opinion here, but based on my few conversations with european officials, I think too many outside observers are mistaking over-the-top attempts at civility in those messages with obsequiousness
it's not kowtowing, it's trying to conjure up off-ramps with politeness. you've all done this
it's not kowtowing, it's trying to conjure up off-ramps with politeness. you've all done this
January 21, 2026 at 8:59 AM
just my opinion here, but based on my few conversations with european officials, I think too many outside observers are mistaking over-the-top attempts at civility in those messages with obsequiousness
it's not kowtowing, it's trying to conjure up off-ramps with politeness. you've all done this
it's not kowtowing, it's trying to conjure up off-ramps with politeness. you've all done this
Travel and living in another country is broadening, but it also teaches you that some things are exactly the same. For instance, aside from the Arabic, this could be a tire shop in central Pennsylvania
January 21, 2026 at 6:27 AM
Travel and living in another country is broadening, but it also teaches you that some things are exactly the same. For instance, aside from the Arabic, this could be a tire shop in central Pennsylvania
I thought the bus thread was a reference to a metaphor, not to a divinely provided metaphor
January 21, 2026 at 6:22 AM
I thought the bus thread was a reference to a metaphor, not to a divinely provided metaphor
Alarmists say the emperor is building a “Death Star”. Even if he wanted to, I’m sure he’d be stopped by the Imperial Senate.
January 20, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Alarmists say the emperor is building a “Death Star”. Even if he wanted to, I’m sure he’d be stopped by the Imperial Senate.
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
I have genuinely thought to myself multiple times over the last year that Stephen Miller et al. found themselves in Omelas they'd be looking for more kids to torture to see if that would make things even better.
January 20, 2026 at 8:08 PM
I have genuinely thought to myself multiple times over the last year that Stephen Miller et al. found themselves in Omelas they'd be looking for more kids to torture to see if that would make things even better.
I’m from downtown.
I’m from Mitch and Murray.
I’m from Mitch and Murray.
January 20, 2026 at 8:06 PM
I’m from downtown.
I’m from Mitch and Murray.
I’m from Mitch and Murray.
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
damn, he's back for a few hours and he's already just casually dropping new classics
The ones who annex Omelas for the rare earths
January 20, 2026 at 8:01 PM
damn, he's back for a few hours and he's already just casually dropping new classics
The ones who annex Omelas for the rare earths
January 20, 2026 at 8:00 PM
The ones who annex Omelas for the rare earths
There are non-democratic governments—many of them—that are more concerned with legitimacy and public opinion than the Trump administration currently is.
January 20, 2026 at 7:48 PM
There are non-democratic governments—many of them—that are more concerned with legitimacy and public opinion than the Trump administration currently is.
The political physics of the moment—this moment, right now—defy ordinary reflexive discourses. When it comes to, say, Greenland, the very wealthy Americans and impoverished single moms have the same class interests in opposing Trump’s stated and serious policy. The threat to order is that great.
January 20, 2026 at 7:31 PM
The political physics of the moment—this moment, right now—defy ordinary reflexive discourses. When it comes to, say, Greenland, the very wealthy Americans and impoverished single moms have the same class interests in opposing Trump’s stated and serious policy. The threat to order is that great.
I make part of my living arguing that people should care about what the public thinks about foreign policy, but at the moment it is hard to make the argument that the public *influences* US foreign policy. Indeed, it is hard to argue that interest groups, in a recognizable sense, do so either.
It is not normal for a president to be pushing for a net -80 policy. That Trump apparently does not care about the public opinion on Greenland (or maybe he doesn't know about the polls) is a sign of how far we have drifted from normal democratic government
Quinnipiac Poll, Jan 8-12 - poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
January 20, 2026 at 7:10 PM
I make part of my living arguing that people should care about what the public thinks about foreign policy, but at the moment it is hard to make the argument that the public *influences* US foreign policy. Indeed, it is hard to argue that interest groups, in a recognizable sense, do so either.
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
It is not normal for a president to be pushing for a net -80 policy. That Trump apparently does not care about the public opinion on Greenland (or maybe he doesn't know about the polls) is a sign of how far we have drifted from normal democratic government
Quinnipiac Poll, Jan 8-12 - poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
January 20, 2026 at 7:03 PM
It is not normal for a president to be pushing for a net -80 policy. That Trump apparently does not care about the public opinion on Greenland (or maybe he doesn't know about the polls) is a sign of how far we have drifted from normal democratic government
Imagine if a loved one were posting and behaving like the president of the United States. You would be in tears, or afraid, but you would be contacting the authorities. I am not being coy, or cute. A real person you knew who behaved like this would be a danger to themselves and others.
January 20, 2026 at 6:44 PM
Imagine if a loved one were posting and behaving like the president of the United States. You would be in tears, or afraid, but you would be contacting the authorities. I am not being coy, or cute. A real person you knew who behaved like this would be a danger to themselves and others.
Updates:
1. I live in Doha now
2. The rest is details
1. I live in Doha now
2. The rest is details
January 20, 2026 at 6:14 PM
Updates:
1. I live in Doha now
2. The rest is details
1. I live in Doha now
2. The rest is details
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
the current american self-sabotage project makes brexit look like sensible statecraft in comparison
January 20, 2026 at 5:59 PM
the current american self-sabotage project makes brexit look like sensible statecraft in comparison
The present moment is, and this is cringe, a good reminder to focus on the values and relationships that matter most.
Once again, how are we supposed to work through all this -- I mean, to do our day jobs?
January 20, 2026 at 5:48 PM
The present moment is, and this is cringe, a good reminder to focus on the values and relationships that matter most.
Yes
Prediction: Whatever comes next, that Carney speech will go down in the history books.
January 20, 2026 at 5:47 PM
Yes
Unironically accurate
you know shit's going down because @professormusgrave.bsky.social is back
January 20, 2026 at 5:47 PM
Unironically accurate
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
Paul's back and he nails it here
January 20, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Paul's back and he nails it here
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
“The unipolar world, what was left of it, has died—of suicide, not murder.”
It is even worse than it looks
The Old World Order is Dead
Unipolarity was given, not taken
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:35 PM
“The unipolar world, what was left of it, has died—of suicide, not murder.”
Reposted by Paul Musgrave
This all feels very much like the beginnings of @greatdismal.bsky.social's Jackpot in his Peripheral series (which I highly recommend).
It is even worse than it looks
The Old World Order is Dead
Unipolarity was given, not taken
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:35 PM
This all feels very much like the beginnings of @greatdismal.bsky.social's Jackpot in his Peripheral series (which I highly recommend).