Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London.
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
matthewbarnfield.co.uk
Unlikely, because we ask them how they voted, and we use the responses to that!
October 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Unlikely, because we ask them how they voted, and we use the responses to that!
It's a "nationally representative" sample with "party affiliation" from Prolific, which in practice means they implement a quota for party ID based on a YouGov poll conducted prior to the 2024 election. So we get a lot of Labour voters because the polls then had them at >40%.
October 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
It's a "nationally representative" sample with "party affiliation" from Prolific, which in practice means they implement a quota for party ID based on a YouGov poll conducted prior to the 2024 election. So we get a lot of Labour voters because the polls then had them at >40%.
Interestingly, nothing with left-right or with redistribution preferences. There are party differences though: Reform's 2024 voters are more focused on the short term and less "future-orientated" than Labour's 2024 voters.
October 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Interestingly, nothing with left-right or with redistribution preferences. There are party differences though: Reform's 2024 voters are more focused on the short term and less "future-orientated" than Labour's 2024 voters.
This is definitely not a massive leap! We do find that the people who "focus on the short term" also tend overwhelmingly to be people who think the country is "heading in the wrong direction":
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
theconversation.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:33 AM
This is definitely not a massive leap! We do find that the people who "focus on the short term" also tend overwhelmingly to be people who think the country is "heading in the wrong direction":
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...