Steve Akehurst
@steveakehurst.bsky.social
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Thoughtful and, I think, largely correct.
Did our feral political press pack call time on Starmer prematurely? Accusations are flying . markurban.substack.com/p/did-the-lo...
Did the Lobby Misread the Starmer Story?
Our political press can be an asset or liability
markurban.substack.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:50 PM
Thoughtful and, I think, largely correct.
Increasingly fascinated by the Blue Lab tendency as a group of people that can't grapple with the fact it already won.
What 'hyper liberal woke stuff' has this government done? Who is he arguing against?!
What 'hyper liberal woke stuff' has this government done? Who is he arguing against?!
February 11, 2026 at 7:19 PM
Increasingly fascinated by the Blue Lab tendency as a group of people that can't grapple with the fact it already won.
What 'hyper liberal woke stuff' has this government done? Who is he arguing against?!
What 'hyper liberal woke stuff' has this government done? Who is he arguing against?!
A small but still real strategic challenge for Labour MPs: gaining a clear consensus on where their vote is going!
Is this level of variation between providers normal?
Seems like polling error waiting to happen.
Also means every factional tendency can cherry pick data to fit their view.
Is this level of variation between providers normal?
Seems like polling error waiting to happen.
Also means every factional tendency can cherry pick data to fit their view.
February 10, 2026 at 1:53 PM
A small but still real strategic challenge for Labour MPs: gaining a clear consensus on where their vote is going!
Is this level of variation between providers normal?
Seems like polling error waiting to happen.
Also means every factional tendency can cherry pick data to fit their view.
Is this level of variation between providers normal?
Seems like polling error waiting to happen.
Also means every factional tendency can cherry pick data to fit their view.
Way too much analysis starts from the premise of Keir Starmer as a bad politician. He went from backbencher to PM in 10 years!
The problem is incoherence - across policy agenda, comms, electoral strategy.
Anyone who thinks they can replace him without fixing that will just fall down the same hole
The problem is incoherence - across policy agenda, comms, electoral strategy.
Anyone who thinks they can replace him without fixing that will just fall down the same hole
February 9, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Way too much analysis starts from the premise of Keir Starmer as a bad politician. He went from backbencher to PM in 10 years!
The problem is incoherence - across policy agenda, comms, electoral strategy.
Anyone who thinks they can replace him without fixing that will just fall down the same hole
The problem is incoherence - across policy agenda, comms, electoral strategy.
Anyone who thinks they can replace him without fixing that will just fall down the same hole
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
I'm fortunate to sit on the advisory board of @persuasionuk.bsky.social, the excellent public opinion outfit headed up by @steveakehurst.bsky.social.
They're currently recruiting for a new communications lead - a great opportunity: careers.meliorefoundation.org/postings/a92...
They're currently recruiting for a new communications lead - a great opportunity: careers.meliorefoundation.org/postings/a92...
Persuasion UK | Communications Lead (3 days a week)
Job Opening: Persuasion UK | Communications Lead (3 days a week) at Meliore Foundation (FUP) in United Kingdom .
careers.meliorefoundation.org
February 6, 2026 at 5:37 PM
I'm fortunate to sit on the advisory board of @persuasionuk.bsky.social, the excellent public opinion outfit headed up by @steveakehurst.bsky.social.
They're currently recruiting for a new communications lead - a great opportunity: careers.meliorefoundation.org/postings/a92...
They're currently recruiting for a new communications lead - a great opportunity: careers.meliorefoundation.org/postings/a92...
Listen, I hate it when Janan Ganesh is right as much as the next man - but think this perfectly sums up the sociology of Mandelson/Epstein type relationships. www.ft.com/content/ce83...
Mandelson and the two elites
What the public sees as a ruling class is divided against itself
www.ft.com
February 8, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Listen, I hate it when Janan Ganesh is right as much as the next man - but think this perfectly sums up the sociology of Mandelson/Epstein type relationships. www.ft.com/content/ce83...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
this, to me, is blueskyism
Bluesky is like those word ladders you get in newspaper crossword sections. This is literally how your post appeared on my feed, like "Can you get from CUTE DOG to FASCISM in only 14 reply rungs?"
February 5, 2026 at 5:46 PM
this, to me, is blueskyism
I regret to say I think we will need to hang this in the Louvre
February 5, 2026 at 1:57 PM
I regret to say I think we will need to hang this in the Louvre
I don’t even know if sinister is the right word for most Mandelson-Epstein exchanges. Above all they are just pathetic.
A man so clearly obsessed by money and status - a life he felt entitled to but couldn’t afford - that it corroded any decency and duty left inside him.
Good riddance.
A man so clearly obsessed by money and status - a life he felt entitled to but couldn’t afford - that it corroded any decency and duty left inside him.
Good riddance.
Mandelson leaked No 10 documents to Epstein - who then helped him pursue a $4m job
The latest: taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/02/02/m...
The latest: taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/02/02/m...
Mandelson leaked No 10 documents to Epstein; sought $4m job
New emails show Peter Mandelson leaked confidential No 10 documents to Jeffrey Epstein, who later helped him pursue a $4m job.
buff.ly
February 2, 2026 at 11:39 PM
I don’t even know if sinister is the right word for most Mandelson-Epstein exchanges. Above all they are just pathetic.
A man so clearly obsessed by money and status - a life he felt entitled to but couldn’t afford - that it corroded any decency and duty left inside him.
Good riddance.
A man so clearly obsessed by money and status - a life he felt entitled to but couldn’t afford - that it corroded any decency and duty left inside him.
Good riddance.
Gorton is really going to test the idea that progressive voters will naturally come back to Labour to stop Reform, or else naturally figure out who is best placed to beat them.
Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.
Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.
The Green Party has claimed figures from a projection show “only the Greens can stop Reform” in Gorton and Denton.
This is misleading. The model cited suggests Reform and the Greens will increase vote share the most, but currently projects a Labour win.
This is misleading. The model cited suggests Reform and the Greens will increase vote share the most, but currently projects a Labour win.
Green Party by-election bar chart claim is misleading – Full Fact
An image shared by the party and its leader Zack Polanski claims figures from a projection show “only the Greens can stop Reform” in Gorton and Denton, even though the model suggests Labour will win.
fullfact.org
January 30, 2026 at 3:18 PM
Gorton is really going to test the idea that progressive voters will naturally come back to Labour to stop Reform, or else naturally figure out who is best placed to beat them.
Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.
Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.
Would quibble with Mr Burns here but this is really a stupendous bit of work
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
How The Simpsons Explain America's Political Realignment
How the Democrats lost Homer Simpson but gained Mr Burns
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:41 AM
Would quibble with Mr Burns here but this is really a stupendous bit of work
I know there are concerns that BlueSky only represents metro lib elites, but I’m at this orchestral dramatisation of the climate crisis at the Barbican and I’ve already spotted two people I know off here. So I think we are good 👍
January 23, 2026 at 7:23 PM
I know there are concerns that BlueSky only represents metro lib elites, but I’m at this orchestral dramatisation of the climate crisis at the Barbican and I’ve already spotted two people I know off here. So I think we are good 👍
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
January 22, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Carney has shown more political foresight in understanding (a) Trump 2 is not Trump 1 (b) he only understands strength & (c) you can use standing up to him to wrong-foot your domestic opponents - than every European leader combined.
A former central banker!
A former central banker!
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 20, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Carney has shown more political foresight in understanding (a) Trump 2 is not Trump 1 (b) he only understands strength & (c) you can use standing up to him to wrong-foot your domestic opponents - than every European leader combined.
A former central banker!
A former central banker!
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Key line in Will Lloyd's piece on Robert Jenrick's sacking: "Jenrick had told friends in recent weeks that he thought Reform lacked a viable economic spokesperson or an eventual shadow chancellor."
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is there a strategy behind Kemi's Jenrick purge?
She cannot decide whether to rebuild or remake the Conservative Party
www.newstatesman.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
if you want to understand the misinformation about Net Zero estimates this is a great starting point
🧵A political/media guide to the "truth" about net-zero
1) Add up costs to install & run a net-zero energy system
2) Pretend fossil-fuelled alternatives wld be free
3) Do say "eco zealots are bankrupting us"
4) Don't say "free cars if we scrap net-zero" cos it sounds ridiculous
5) That's it!
1/10
1) Add up costs to install & run a net-zero energy system
2) Pretend fossil-fuelled alternatives wld be free
3) Do say "eco zealots are bankrupting us"
4) Don't say "free cars if we scrap net-zero" cos it sounds ridiculous
5) That's it!
1/10
January 13, 2026 at 12:24 PM
if you want to understand the misinformation about Net Zero estimates this is a great starting point
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
January 8, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
It’s worth mentioning, though it’s been said repeatedly: the Lizzie Line carries 1/6th of UK daily rail passengers (not including the Tube) and has already paid off its entire costs.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
Worked example of the crippling effects or Treasury brain here
Elizabeth Line would ‘never’ be built, Michael Portillo wrote when urging cancellation
Former Treasury minister warned that Crossrail London link was too costly and unnecessary, newly released papers show
www.ft.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:17 PM
It’s worth mentioning, though it’s been said repeatedly: the Lizzie Line carries 1/6th of UK daily rail passengers (not including the Tube) and has already paid off its entire costs.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
December 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
December 20, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Verian’s polling in the 2024 GE campaign was a) by an innovative random sampling method rather than a panel and b) pretty accurate, in that it had a lower Lab number than most.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
December 19, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Verian’s polling in the 2024 GE campaign was a) by an innovative random sampling method rather than a panel and b) pretty accurate, in that it had a lower Lab number than most.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Fascinating and beautiful piece of magazine journalism by Kate Mossman on the plane that was nearly crashed by a passenger nine months before 9/11:
The strange fate of Flight 2069
How do you measure the cost of a disaster that didn’t happen?
www.newstatesman.com
December 15, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Fascinating and beautiful piece of magazine journalism by Kate Mossman on the plane that was nearly crashed by a passenger nine months before 9/11:
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
The Bondi Beach Jewish community was gathering to light candles for Hanukkah.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
December 14, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The Bondi Beach Jewish community was gathering to light candles for Hanukkah.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
By coincidence was reading V13 by Emmanuel Carrere when learning of Bondi attack - this Simone Weil quote in it seems v apt today:
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
December 14, 2025 at 9:43 PM
By coincidence was reading V13 by Emmanuel Carrere when learning of Bondi attack - this Simone Weil quote in it seems v apt today:
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
I found this today (from Peter Kellner/YouGov) which answers part of your query.
December 9, 2025 at 8:40 PM
I found this today (from Peter Kellner/YouGov) which answers part of your query.