James Breckwoldt
@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
Senior Research Analyst @focaldata.bsky.social
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Political Leaders Need To Be Charismatic Attention-Seekers (And That's a Good Thing)
It ain't no mystery, if it's politics or history. The thing you gotta know is, everything is showbiz!
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:33 AM
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
The re-election path for this govt has always involved betting an early period of unpopular budgets on hopefully delivering the improvements asked for by Labour voters by the next election. The problem is the leadership, and internal critics, favour combos that avoid one side of the equation.
November 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
The re-election path for this govt has always involved betting an early period of unpopular budgets on hopefully delivering the improvements asked for by Labour voters by the next election. The problem is the leadership, and internal critics, favour combos that avoid one side of the equation.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Like, you can debate how much Starmer is directly responsible for Labour's current unpopularity, but I can absolutely guarantee that a replacement will also be really unpopular if they don't substantively improve cost of living or public services, which will require politically difficult budgets.
November 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Like, you can debate how much Starmer is directly responsible for Labour's current unpopularity, but I can absolutely guarantee that a replacement will also be really unpopular if they don't substantively improve cost of living or public services, which will require politically difficult budgets.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
If MPs defected at the same rates as their voters, the Commons would look like:
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
November 12, 2025 at 10:37 AM
If MPs defected at the same rates as their voters, the Commons would look like:
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Political Leaders Need To Be Charismatic Attention-Seekers (And That's a Good Thing)
It ain't no mystery, if it's politics or history. The thing you gotta know is, everything is showbiz!
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:33 AM
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
For more on the strange language that politicians use to describe the average voter that Phil and Armando talk about here, I wrote a short history of the weird and wonderful world of voter segmentation names in September
November 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
For more on the strange language that politicians use to describe the average voter that Phil and Armando talk about here, I wrote a short history of the weird and wonderful world of voter segmentation names in September
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 AM
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I've made the code for the ANES output available at: gist.github.com/philswatton/...
gist.github.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I've made the code for the ANES output available at: gist.github.com/philswatton/...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
November 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
This is an Obama 2004 DNC Convention speech-level seismic event of a speech by Zohran Mamdani.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
November 5, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
Diversity, Deposits and the Death Penalty: Part 1
Trust me, I'm a doctor
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
Diversity, Deposits and the Death Penalty: Part 1
Trust me, I'm a doctor
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
The 2024 UK General Election in Wales
That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte
academic.oup.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:13 AM
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
It feels like scrambling for an excuse that allows them to keep their heads in the clouds, without thinking through what they're actually saying
October 29, 2025 at 12:02 PM
It feels like scrambling for an excuse that allows them to keep their heads in the clouds, without thinking through what they're actually saying
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
October 29, 2025 at 10:45 AM
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
2033 GE, Lib Dems are still on 15% and form a majority holding 90% of seats.
October 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM
2033 GE, Lib Dems are still on 15% and form a majority holding 90% of seats.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
What I especially like about this is that it shows how complex and non-linear some of the dynamics at play can be. Parties can moderate and be *worse off* then continue to moderate and start to gain votes. Politics is complex and mostly non-linear!
Here is the - distinctly alpha version - Interactive Political Compass Dominance Map:
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
PyCafe - Panel - Interactive Political Compass Dominance Map
Create & Share Streamlit, Dash and Python Apps Online.
py.cafe
October 24, 2025 at 3:02 PM
What I especially like about this is that it shows how complex and non-linear some of the dynamics at play can be. Parties can moderate and be *worse off* then continue to moderate and start to gain votes. Politics is complex and mostly non-linear!
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Here is the - distinctly alpha version - Interactive Political Compass Dominance Map:
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
PyCafe - Panel - Interactive Political Compass Dominance Map
Create & Share Streamlit, Dash and Python Apps Online.
py.cafe
October 24, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Here is the - distinctly alpha version - Interactive Political Compass Dominance Map:
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
py.cafe/app/MariosRi...
Ever wanted to know what would happen if a party shifted position/changed perceived competence? Now you can!
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
There is a case for a written constitution I suppose, though it's beyond me who would be trusted to write it and how you get broad consent for it. Though rewriting the rules because you don't like who the public might vote for isn't a great look. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
We must act now: without a written constitution, Reform UK will have carte blanche to toxify our nation | Goerge Monbiot
It means breaking with hundreds of years of tradition, but it can’t wait. As hard-right figures spread division and laud autocrats, a fail-safe is vital, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:50 AM
There is a case for a written constitution I suppose, though it's beyond me who would be trusted to write it and how you get broad consent for it. Though rewriting the rules because you don't like who the public might vote for isn't a great look. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...