James Breckwoldt
@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
Senior Research Analyst @focaldata.bsky.social
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
Pinned
Why Right-Wing Parties Winning Elections Didn’t Mean The Right Won the Culture War
As explained by Daft Punk, Darth Vader, The Wicked Witch of the West, Groundskeeper Willie, Wet Leg and Emperor Palpatine
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Me in the D.Tel today www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02...
February 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM
Me in the D.Tel today www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)
February 13, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)
Lib Dem voters sat in middle (surprise!) when it came to attitudes towards economic growth when I looked at this
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
February 11, 2026 at 10:42 AM
Lib Dem voters sat in middle (surprise!) when it came to attitudes towards economic growth when I looked at this
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why Right-Wing Parties Winning Elections Didn’t Mean The Right Won the Culture War
As explained by Daft Punk, Darth Vader, The Wicked Witch of the West, Groundskeeper Willie, Wet Leg and Emperor Palpatine
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:27 AM
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Fab, as per!
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why Right-Wing Parties Winning Elections Didn’t Mean The Right Won the Culture War
As explained by Daft Punk, Darth Vader, The Wicked Witch of the West, Groundskeeper Willie, Wet Leg and Emperor Palpatine
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Fab, as per!
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why Right-Wing Parties Winning Elections Didn’t Mean The Right Won the Culture War
As explained by Daft Punk, Darth Vader, The Wicked Witch of the West, Groundskeeper Willie, Wet Leg and Emperor Palpatine
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:27 AM
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
YouGov's first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election shows clear leads for the SNP, with Reform UK now in second place
Constituency vote
SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election)
Ref: 20% (New)
Lab: 15% (-7)
Con: 10% (-12)
LD: 10% (+3)
Grn: 9% (+8)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Constituency vote
SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election)
Ref: 20% (New)
Lab: 15% (-7)
Con: 10% (-12)
LD: 10% (+3)
Grn: 9% (+8)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
January 29, 2026 at 2:00 PM
YouGov's first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election shows clear leads for the SNP, with Reform UK now in second place
Constituency vote
SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election)
Ref: 20% (New)
Lab: 15% (-7)
Con: 10% (-12)
LD: 10% (+3)
Grn: 9% (+8)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Constituency vote
SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election)
Ref: 20% (New)
Lab: 15% (-7)
Con: 10% (-12)
LD: 10% (+3)
Grn: 9% (+8)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
“the WRU, an institution that has sat at the heart of Welsh sporting and cultural life for almost 150 years has, rather than creating lasting legacies of Grand Slams and world-class players, become adept at producing apathy and disillusionment” @nyedavies.bsky.social 👇👇
nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...
nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...
Rugby, Labour and the Crisis of Welsh Institutions
Nye Davies Sport can often reflect a nation. In Wales, rugby has played a prominent role in the formation of a national consciousness, or at least a shared perception of what it means to be Welsh. Dai...
nation.cymru
January 29, 2026 at 10:44 AM
“the WRU, an institution that has sat at the heart of Welsh sporting and cultural life for almost 150 years has, rather than creating lasting legacies of Grand Slams and world-class players, become adept at producing apathy and disillusionment” @nyedavies.bsky.social 👇👇
nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...
nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...
Please, please, please can you provide at least *some* evidence if you make these arguments:
a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24
b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal"
c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers
d) Right-liberals are big % of pop
a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24
b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal"
c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers
d) Right-liberals are big % of pop
January 29, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Please, please, please can you provide at least *some* evidence if you make these arguments:
a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24
b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal"
c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers
d) Right-liberals are big % of pop
a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24
b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal"
c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers
d) Right-liberals are big % of pop
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Truly shocking and an indicator of why Welsh Labour face a far tougher time than the SNP in May.
Voters of *ALL* parties, including *LABOUR* voters think that both Labour governments on Britain are doing a bad job. Brutal times ahead at #Senedd26 in #Wales #Cymru for Eluned Morgan et al 👇👇
Voters of *ALL* parties, including *LABOUR* voters think that both Labour governments on Britain are doing a bad job. Brutal times ahead at #Senedd26 in #Wales #Cymru for Eluned Morgan et al 👇👇
67% of Welsh people believe the UK government is doing a bad job, with 52% saying so of the Welsh government
UK Government
Good job: 10% (+2 from 4-10 Sept)
Neither: 20% (+2)
Bad job: 67% (-4)
Welsh Government
Good job: 14% (+2)
Neither: 25% (=)
Bad job: 52% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
UK Government
Good job: 10% (+2 from 4-10 Sept)
Neither: 20% (+2)
Bad job: 67% (-4)
Welsh Government
Good job: 14% (+2)
Neither: 25% (=)
Bad job: 52% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
January 28, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
How The Simpsons Explain America's Political Realignment
How the Democrats lost Homer Simpson but gained Mr Burns
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 8:33 AM
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
"Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!"
Fantastic write-up from James unpacking the shifting voting patterns of archetypal American voter blocs
Fantastic write-up from James unpacking the shifting voting patterns of archetypal American voter blocs
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
How The Simpsons Explain America's Political Realignment
How the Democrats lost Homer Simpson but gained Mr Burns
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 7:51 PM
"Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!"
Fantastic write-up from James unpacking the shifting voting patterns of archetypal American voter blocs
Fantastic write-up from James unpacking the shifting voting patterns of archetypal American voter blocs
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Mr. Burns Is Now a Democrat! @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's latest Substack piece is a brilliant and entertaining way to track 50 years of U.S. political shifts jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/how-would-...
January 27, 2026 at 10:40 AM
Mr. Burns Is Now a Democrat! @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's latest Substack piece is a brilliant and entertaining way to track 50 years of U.S. political shifts jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/how-would-...
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
How The Simpsons Explain America's Political Realignment
How the Democrats lost Homer Simpson but gained Mr Burns
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 8:33 AM
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.
January 26, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years...
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
January 24, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years...
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years...
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
January 24, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years...
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
obviously correct!
January 23, 2026 at 4:13 PM
obviously correct!
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I really enjoyed reading this article, now available in @bjpols.bsky.social:
In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
January 23, 2026 at 11:53 AM
I really enjoyed reading this article, now available in @bjpols.bsky.social:
In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
The unwillingness of the UK govt to do more to help her is bizarre, especially as the implications for Starmer of Labour humiliation in Wales are clearly very serious indeed.
But also, who is this messaging meant to be targeting?
15 weeks to polling day… Tick tock
Fin
But also, who is this messaging meant to be targeting?
15 weeks to polling day… Tick tock
Fin
January 22, 2026 at 8:05 PM
The unwillingness of the UK govt to do more to help her is bizarre, especially as the implications for Starmer of Labour humiliation in Wales are clearly very serious indeed.
But also, who is this messaging meant to be targeting?
15 weeks to polling day… Tick tock
Fin
But also, who is this messaging meant to be targeting?
15 weeks to polling day… Tick tock
Fin
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Worth a listen.
The FM seems to be trying to use the electoral threat of Plaid (‘seperatists’) to generate leverage for the Welsh govt in dealing with the UK govt so as to ensure that it treats Wales ‘fairly’ in those areas in which it has *already* refused to act (rail, justice, crown estate) 1/
The FM seems to be trying to use the electoral threat of Plaid (‘seperatists’) to generate leverage for the Welsh govt in dealing with the UK govt so as to ensure that it treats Wales ‘fairly’ in those areas in which it has *already* refused to act (rail, justice, crown estate) 1/
Araith Eluned Morgan yn Llundain heddiw….
The First Minister’s speech at the IfS today….
www.youtube.com/live/Wm-OVQW...
The First Minister’s speech at the IfS today….
www.youtube.com/live/Wm-OVQW...
In conversation with Eluned Morgan MS, First Minister of Wales
YouTube video by Institute for Government
www.youtube.com
January 22, 2026 at 7:51 PM
Worth a listen.
The FM seems to be trying to use the electoral threat of Plaid (‘seperatists’) to generate leverage for the Welsh govt in dealing with the UK govt so as to ensure that it treats Wales ‘fairly’ in those areas in which it has *already* refused to act (rail, justice, crown estate) 1/
The FM seems to be trying to use the electoral threat of Plaid (‘seperatists’) to generate leverage for the Welsh govt in dealing with the UK govt so as to ensure that it treats Wales ‘fairly’ in those areas in which it has *already* refused to act (rail, justice, crown estate) 1/
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Really good to see @yougov transitioning to using an occupational measure of social class (ns-sec) but it is worth adding that by far the strongest occupational class pattern is in non-voting.
January 22, 2026 at 9:12 AM
Really good to see @yougov transitioning to using an occupational measure of social class (ns-sec) but it is worth adding that by far the strongest occupational class pattern is in non-voting.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Dr @polpsychjoe.bsky.social speaks with @bbcwales.bsky.social Radio about the first anniversary of Donald Trump's second term as president, his foreign and domestic policies, and domestic approval ratings. 👇
January 21, 2026 at 2:19 PM
Dr @polpsychjoe.bsky.social speaks with @bbcwales.bsky.social Radio about the first anniversary of Donald Trump's second term as president, his foreign and domestic policies, and domestic approval ratings. 👇
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Why would you say this? It's not true!
UK in ‘strong position’ to avoid further tax rises, says Rachel Reeves
Chancellor defends UK decision not to threaten retaliation over Greenland dispute
www.ft.com
January 21, 2026 at 12:16 AM
Why would you say this? It's not true!
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Really enjoyed appearing on the UCL Uncovering Politics podcast with the brilliant @alanrenwick.bsky.social to discuss my recent paper in Electoral Studies!
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/doe...
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/doe...
Does Owning A Home Make You More Right Wing? | UCL Uncovering Politics
This week we’re looking at the electoral politics of housing. Does whether you own or rent your home affect how you vote? And is this relationship changing over time?
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Really enjoyed appearing on the UCL Uncovering Politics podcast with the brilliant @alanrenwick.bsky.social to discuss my recent paper in Electoral Studies!
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/doe...
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/doe...