James Breckwoldt
@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
Senior Research Analyst @focaldata.bsky.social
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
There certainly is a group of voters who have more negative views about growth than others, but these are not necessarily the same people Liz Truss complained about when she was prime minister.
In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:
In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
There certainly is a group of voters who have more negative views about growth than others, but these are not necessarily the same people Liz Truss complained about when she was prime minister.
In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:
In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:
Labour and Conservative voters tend to swap places as most pro-growth depending on the question
Non-voters stand out as consistently most anti-growth across nearly every question.
Next most anti-growth groups are either Green or Reform UK supporters, depending on the specific question.
Non-voters stand out as consistently most anti-growth across nearly every question.
Next most anti-growth groups are either Green or Reform UK supporters, depending on the specific question.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Labour and Conservative voters tend to swap places as most pro-growth depending on the question
Non-voters stand out as consistently most anti-growth across nearly every question.
Next most anti-growth groups are either Green or Reform UK supporters, depending on the specific question.
Non-voters stand out as consistently most anti-growth across nearly every question.
Next most anti-growth groups are either Green or Reform UK supporters, depending on the specific question.
Labour voters are most pro-growth group, followed closely by Conservatives.
At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.
This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.
At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.
This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Labour voters are most pro-growth group, followed closely by Conservatives.
At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.
This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.
At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.
This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.
Best predictor is a person’s occupation.
People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views
Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.
This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past
People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views
Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.
This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Best predictor is a person’s occupation.
People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views
Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.
This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past
People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views
Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.
This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past
People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.
Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.
Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.
Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.
Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.
Another factor analysis, but this time these eight best growth statements alongside economic and social/cultural values questions in @britishelectionstudy.com
There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.
There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Another factor analysis, but this time these eight best growth statements alongside economic and social/cultural values questions in @britishelectionstudy.com
There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.
There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.
Factor analysis on these
All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.
All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Factor analysis on these
All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.
All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.
We then asked respondents to place their views between a series of two statements on a 0-10 scale, with one side being anti-growth and the other being its pro-growth opposite. These were created to cover the main debates.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
We then asked respondents to place their views between a series of two statements on a 0-10 scale, with one side being anti-growth and the other being its pro-growth opposite. These were created to cover the main debates.
When people hear “economic growth” what do they think
politicians mean?
Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.
Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.
politicians mean?
Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.
Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.
October 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
When people hear “economic growth” what do they think
politicians mean?
Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.
Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.
politicians mean?
Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.
Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.
Expectation: 1989 bangers!
Reality: Oh it's mostly similar to her previous 2 albums
Luckily, someone used AI to make songs using quotes from politicians set to styles/artists big during time in office: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Including Swiftie Sunak one
Full songs in article
Reality: Oh it's mostly similar to her previous 2 albums
Luckily, someone used AI to make songs using quotes from politicians set to styles/artists big during time in office: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Including Swiftie Sunak one
Full songs in article
October 4, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Expectation: 1989 bangers!
Reality: Oh it's mostly similar to her previous 2 albums
Luckily, someone used AI to make songs using quotes from politicians set to styles/artists big during time in office: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Including Swiftie Sunak one
Full songs in article
Reality: Oh it's mostly similar to her previous 2 albums
Luckily, someone used AI to make songs using quotes from politicians set to styles/artists big during time in office: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Including Swiftie Sunak one
Full songs in article
TLDR it’s immigration
In article, I discuss power of immigration as electoral issue using analogies of:
- hype for Oasis's Be Here Now
- hype for Avengers: Endgame
- Di Maria and De Bruyne's transfer fees
- Comical Ali
- Paraphrasing something Sigmund Freud didn’t say
- Simpsons memes
In article, I discuss power of immigration as electoral issue using analogies of:
- hype for Oasis's Be Here Now
- hype for Avengers: Endgame
- Di Maria and De Bruyne's transfer fees
- Comical Ali
- Paraphrasing something Sigmund Freud didn’t say
- Simpsons memes
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
TLDR it’s immigration
In article, I discuss power of immigration as electoral issue using analogies of:
- hype for Oasis's Be Here Now
- hype for Avengers: Endgame
- Di Maria and De Bruyne's transfer fees
- Comical Ali
- Paraphrasing something Sigmund Freud didn’t say
- Simpsons memes
In article, I discuss power of immigration as electoral issue using analogies of:
- hype for Oasis's Be Here Now
- hype for Avengers: Endgame
- Di Maria and De Bruyne's transfer fees
- Comical Ali
- Paraphrasing something Sigmund Freud didn’t say
- Simpsons memes
What is striking is the scale of the shift from 2024 to 2025 in willingness to vote Reform
- Former Conservatives: 5.6 to 8.7
- Former non-voters: 4.0 to 8.1
- Former Labour voters: 3.6 to 7.9
- Former other party voters: 4.6 to 8.2
- Former Conservatives: 5.6 to 8.7
- Former non-voters: 4.0 to 8.1
- Former Labour voters: 3.6 to 7.9
- Former other party voters: 4.6 to 8.2
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
What is striking is the scale of the shift from 2024 to 2025 in willingness to vote Reform
- Former Conservatives: 5.6 to 8.7
- Former non-voters: 4.0 to 8.1
- Former Labour voters: 3.6 to 7.9
- Former other party voters: 4.6 to 8.2
- Former Conservatives: 5.6 to 8.7
- Former non-voters: 4.0 to 8.1
- Former Labour voters: 3.6 to 7.9
- Former other party voters: 4.6 to 8.2
Reform voters are very happy with their choice and are not treating Reform as a temporary parking spot.
For most groups, no other party comes close. The only exception is the ex-Conservatives (but Reform still ahead)
For most groups, no other party comes close. The only exception is the ex-Conservatives (but Reform still ahead)
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Reform voters are very happy with their choice and are not treating Reform as a temporary parking spot.
For most groups, no other party comes close. The only exception is the ex-Conservatives (but Reform still ahead)
For most groups, no other party comes close. The only exception is the ex-Conservatives (but Reform still ahead)
On a tax & spend, Reform groups sit roughly at the midpoint and place Reform in a very similar position
Reform voters are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country’s economy (and are less unhappy - but still unhappy - about their own financial situation)
Reform voters are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country’s economy (and are less unhappy - but still unhappy - about their own financial situation)
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
On a tax & spend, Reform groups sit roughly at the midpoint and place Reform in a very similar position
Reform voters are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country’s economy (and are less unhappy - but still unhappy - about their own financial situation)
Reform voters are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country’s economy (and are less unhappy - but still unhappy - about their own financial situation)
All groups of current Reform voters see themselves as more anti-EU than pro. At same time, view Reform as more anti-EU than they are
I don’t think this matters because Brexit is low salience. What unites these voters today is desire to see immigration reduced
I don’t think this matters because Brexit is low salience. What unites these voters today is desire to see immigration reduced
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
All groups of current Reform voters see themselves as more anti-EU than pro. At same time, view Reform as more anti-EU than they are
I don’t think this matters because Brexit is low salience. What unites these voters today is desire to see immigration reduced
I don’t think this matters because Brexit is low salience. What unites these voters today is desire to see immigration reduced
2014-2016 immigration was highly salient, but people who prioritised it were split between UKIP and Conservatives (~35% each) + some Labour (~20%)
In 2025, Reform now dominates (74%), compared with only 16% for the Conservatives.
Reform has monopolised the anti-immigration vote!
In 2025, Reform now dominates (74%), compared with only 16% for the Conservatives.
Reform has monopolised the anti-immigration vote!
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
2014-2016 immigration was highly salient, but people who prioritised it were split between UKIP and Conservatives (~35% each) + some Labour (~20%)
In 2025, Reform now dominates (74%), compared with only 16% for the Conservatives.
Reform has monopolised the anti-immigration vote!
In 2025, Reform now dominates (74%), compared with only 16% for the Conservatives.
Reform has monopolised the anti-immigration vote!
Wider context is that immigration has become salient again. Current Reform voters have always been more concerned about it than average BESIP respondent
Among Reform voters, immigration is now back to being as salient as it was in 2016.
Among Reform voters, immigration is now back to being as salient as it was in 2016.
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Wider context is that immigration has become salient again. Current Reform voters have always been more concerned about it than average BESIP respondent
Among Reform voters, immigration is now back to being as salient as it was in 2016.
Among Reform voters, immigration is now back to being as salient as it was in 2016.
Every group of current Reform supporters wants immigration reduced by a lot.
Importantly, the differences between self-placement and party placement are tiny in every case. For immigration, Reform’s voters and Reform’s perceived policies are almost identical.
Importantly, the differences between self-placement and party placement are tiny in every case. For immigration, Reform’s voters and Reform’s perceived policies are almost identical.
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Every group of current Reform supporters wants immigration reduced by a lot.
Importantly, the differences between self-placement and party placement are tiny in every case. For immigration, Reform’s voters and Reform’s perceived policies are almost identical.
Importantly, the differences between self-placement and party placement are tiny in every case. For immigration, Reform’s voters and Reform’s perceived policies are almost identical.
Follow-up question asking which party that respondent thought was best on their most important issue
Reform are way ahead. Their voters are not just holding their nose and choosing least bad option, but believe Reform is best placed to deal with what they care about.
Reform are way ahead. Their voters are not just holding their nose and choosing least bad option, but believe Reform is best placed to deal with what they care about.
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Follow-up question asking which party that respondent thought was best on their most important issue
Reform are way ahead. Their voters are not just holding their nose and choosing least bad option, but believe Reform is best placed to deal with what they care about.
Reform are way ahead. Their voters are not just holding their nose and choosing least bad option, but believe Reform is best placed to deal with what they care about.
Across all groups, immigration dominates concerns. It’s majority issue for all, from 53% of ex-Labour voters to 71% of those who've stuck with Reform
Economy is second most common. It comes up for between 14% of Reform loyalists and ex-Conservatives and 25% of ex-Labour voters
Economy is second most common. It comes up for between 14% of Reform loyalists and ex-Conservatives and 25% of ex-Labour voters
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Across all groups, immigration dominates concerns. It’s majority issue for all, from 53% of ex-Labour voters to 71% of those who've stuck with Reform
Economy is second most common. It comes up for between 14% of Reform loyalists and ex-Conservatives and 25% of ex-Labour voters
Economy is second most common. It comes up for between 14% of Reform loyalists and ex-Conservatives and 25% of ex-Labour voters
Every group more socially conservative than average and scores fairly similar
Diverge on economics. Former Labour voters are to left and former Tories sit to right
All groups are more populist. Former non-voters and Labour voters more likely to feel disengaged
Diverge on economics. Former Labour voters are to left and former Tories sit to right
All groups are more populist. Former non-voters and Labour voters more likely to feel disengaged
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Every group more socially conservative than average and scores fairly similar
Diverge on economics. Former Labour voters are to left and former Tories sit to right
All groups are more populist. Former non-voters and Labour voters more likely to feel disengaged
Diverge on economics. Former Labour voters are to left and former Tories sit to right
All groups are more populist. Former non-voters and Labour voters more likely to feel disengaged