Nicolai von Ondarza
nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

Political science 80%
Economics 10%
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January 2026 was a reminder that EU politics is no longer just “centre vs far right”, it is increasingly unpredictable.

In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:
EU Analytics January 2026 review
The unpredictability of a shifting EU political landscape
nicolaivonondarza.substack.com
The MFA of #Ethiopia formally accuses #Eritrea of "further escalation" along the border in recent days.

How long can these threats continue without either side taking pre-emptive action?
Latest for @rusi.bsky.social

If the PM has failed to start his own national conversation on defence in 18 months, why would his (potential) successor? Time is running out!

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The UK Whole of Society Defence and the Reality of Modern War
The national conversation must address society’s preparations to defend itself, reimagining the citizen solider of the 21st century, and every sector’s role in this effort.
www.rusi.org
The U.S. wants to reshuffle commanders of several top NATO command centers, ceding control of 2 while taking over 1.

It’s part of a push by Trump to make Europeans shoulder more responsibility as doubts swirl over U.S. commitment to NATO.

w/@paulmcleary.bsky.social pro.politico.eu/news/212776
POLITICO Pro
pro.politico.eu

Pretty horrific account about an Irish (and thus also EU) citizen being held by ICE since September last year, despite having a legal work and residence permit in the US and being married to an US citizen.
"He said he has been locked in the same large, cold and damp room for 4½ months with more than 70 men. He said detainees are constantly hungry because meals served at tables in the centre of the room offer only child-sized portions." www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for nearly five months despite having no criminal record
www.irishtimes.com

Noteworthy phrasing here from @kajakallas.bsky.social who has called the booing of JD Vance at the Winter Olympics an expression of 'European pride':
Olympics crowd showed ‘European pride’ by booing JD Vance, EU top diplomat says
“Our public also has a pride, a European pride,” foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told an interviewer.
www.politico.eu

Though of course, looking since 2022, France is still ahead in the 'churning through Prime Ministers' metric, even if Starmer is forced to resign this year.

Also, never mind Meloni, Ursula von der Leyen would be up to her 5th UK Prime Minister to negotiate EU-UK relations with (but we are of course getting ahead of ourselves).

Already read Italian journalists joking that in comparison to Meloni (started in October 2022, almost in parallel to Truss) that Meloni might soon meet her 4th UK Prime Minister while in office.
Meanwhile at the EU Commission in Brussels:

"Wait, they lost another Prime Minister?"
Meanwhile at the EU Commission in Brussels:

"Wait, they lost another Prime Minister?"
"He said he has been locked in the same large, cold and damp room for 4½ months with more than 70 men. He said detainees are constantly hungry because meals served at tables in the centre of the room offer only child-sized portions." www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...
‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for nearly five months despite having no criminal record
www.irishtimes.com

Another signal towards the 'first slowly, then suddenly' theory of Prime Minister's demise:
Am told Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, is going to follow Anas Sarwar in calling for the PM to stand down;

Also that there will be "Scottish MP ministerial resignations" afterwards

Ministers saying it's the end game...
Am told Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, is going to follow Anas Sarwar in calling for the PM to stand down;

Also that there will be "Scottish MP ministerial resignations" afterwards

Ministers saying it's the end game...
Let us make a refinement of this claim. The claim is “do not use AI to obscure the level of effort that went into your writing.” That’s where the dishonesty lives, not in the use of the tool
Think that it's dishonest to not tell someone when your writing is AI written, the same position I hold on ghost writing

Very unlikely, given his and Labour's polling. Much more likely is an interim Prime Minister, until a new Labour leader is chosen and would then be appointed as Prime Minister by the king on the basis of the majority in the House of Commons, like Johnson (2019) or Truss and Sunak (2022).

This has the echo of early Juune 2022, when Boris Johnson was forced to resign despite a big majority in the House of Commons, as his party was no longer willing to follow him. Though of course it remains speculative how close Starmer is to resigning, hard to not see power quickly ebbing away.
Scottish Labour leader to call for Starmer to step down ft.trib.al/ng2CP3a
Scottish Labour leader to call for Starmer to step down
Anas Sarwar’s intervention deepens crisis facing UK prime minister
ft.trib.al

Trump is widely seen as hugely unpopular in Europe. However, if you compare him to national leaders, Trump is actually more popular than Starmer in the UK and Macron in France. Not a direct comparison, of course, but a side result of the unpopularity of Macron and Starmer.

For comparion, last year's February leaders retreat was on defence, with no immediate outcome. However, a lot of the follow-up decisions e.g. on SAFE, excemptions for national defence spending, EDIP etc stemmed from it and it was therefore consequential, just not in a directly visible way.

This week's informal European Council will be a weird one. It is build up in the EU press as decisive, yet as a leader's retreat there won't be conclusions, let alone actual decisions.

Its real value will be in setting the course for future decisions, only visible in hindsight.
🟢 Why Europe’s leaders won’t rescue the economy this week
🟢 Wannabe EU officials face daunting 3% success rate in new exam
🟢 What’s in the latest package of Russia sanctions
These stories and more in Monday’s Rapporteur: 🔗https://eurac.tv/9YnY

Thank you for the comparison. Are there any studies available on how much drain V2G has on the car's battery? That might make a difference on whether it is worth it for EV owners.
🟢 Why Europe’s leaders won’t rescue the economy this week
🟢 Wannabe EU officials face daunting 3% success rate in new exam
🟢 What’s in the latest package of Russia sanctions
These stories and more in Monday’s Rapporteur: 🔗https://eurac.tv/9YnY

Writing in English is not the problem (for more pan-European debates, it is often the solution), only reading in English is.

And when is coming to other European countries?
When we talk about European payment sovereignty, names like Digital Euro or WERO dominate the headlines.

But the real heavyweight champion isn’t a project in development—it’s already here, it’s MADE IN POLAND, and it’s crushing records.

It is BLIK
www.blik.com/en

www.ft.com/content/fcc2...
European alternatives to Visa and Mastercard ‘urgently’ needed, says banking chief
US payment processing companies account for about two-thirds of card transactions in Eurozone
www.ft.com

This is a rather unhelpful framing coming from (I assume) national diplomats. It suggests that the problem with EU competitiveness lies with the Commission, where as all EU regulation are passed by Council & Parliament.

If anything, it is usually the national capitals who are putting on brakes.
EU countries are piling pressure on the European Commission to get serious about turning around the bloc’s sluggish economy, amid fears it could be left at the mercy of other big players like the U.S. and China.

Brussels Playbook has more 👇
Time to grow up
Presented by European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion By GABRIEL GAVIN PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur |…
www.politico.eu
EU countries are piling pressure on the European Commission to get serious about turning around the bloc’s sluggish economy, amid fears it could be left at the mercy of other big players like the U.S. and China.

Brussels Playbook has more 👇
Time to grow up
Presented by European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion By GABRIEL GAVIN PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur |…
www.politico.eu
Missed this yesterday. Massive boost for Ukraine’s arms industry, who have been pushing for export controls to be lifted. Creates even more opportunity to develop new equipment, innovate and fund the defensive effort. Great news.

Make that Europeans resigning over Epstein files (e.g. also Miroslav Lajčák in Slovakia)
on we go

Fallout from Mandelson/Epstein in the UK.

As with May, the last line of the defence for Starmer is his chief of staff. So treat this as a stepping stone, with Starmer's Premiership likely fatally wounded.