Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Back in May 2024, I commented here how far-right parties could benefit from having a "further-right" party that helped made them appear moderate in comparison.
Im this sense, ESN is for the PfE today what ID was for the ECR then.
Im this sense, ESN is for the PfE today what ID was for the ECR then.
For a far-right party, having a further-right party can be very useful in order to appear more moderate and become normalised into the political mainstream.
So far, ID has been the further-right to the ECR's far-right. Now, Le Pen wants to make the AfD the further-right and get normalised herself.
So far, ID has been the further-right to the ECR's far-right. Now, Le Pen wants to make the AfD the further-right and get normalised herself.
November 14, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Back in May 2024, I commented here how far-right parties could benefit from having a "further-right" party that helped made them appear moderate in comparison.
Im this sense, ESN is for the PfE today what ID was for the ECR then.
Im this sense, ESN is for the PfE today what ID was for the ECR then.
Equally important, a clear cut EPP to the far-right majority is only possible with all the far-right, including the ESN/AfD. Would Merz not have welcomed the result if the few Renew/S&D rebels had not voted in favour and the ESN votes would have been decisive?
I doubt it.
I doubt it.
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Equally important, a clear cut EPP to the far-right majority is only possible with all the far-right, including the ESN/AfD. Would Merz not have welcomed the result if the few Renew/S&D rebels had not voted in favour and the ESN votes would have been decisive?
I doubt it.
I doubt it.
To me, this is not a convincing argument, though. For one, this would mean for him cooperation with the Patriots for Europe are okay (which includes quite a few strongly far right parties).
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 PM
To me, this is not a convincing argument, though. For one, this would mean for him cooperation with the Patriots for Europe are okay (which includes quite a few strongly far right parties).
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Was bad enough when the UK was trying to do the early part of the EU reset through informal media briefings that caused confusion in Brussels, is actively dangerous when the same tactics are being used ahead of a budget absolutely central to this government's success.
November 14, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Was bad enough when the UK was trying to do the early part of the EU reset through informal media briefings that caused confusion in Brussels, is actively dangerous when the same tactics are being used ahead of a budget absolutely central to this government's success.
Now, we can debate whether the EPP or the S&D (and/or Renew) are ultimately responsible for failing to find a workable compromise of the pro-European centre. But it is clear this is a reflection of a contious political strategy by the EPP.
November 13, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Now, we can debate whether the EPP or the S&D (and/or Renew) are ultimately responsible for failing to find a workable compromise of the pro-European centre. But it is clear this is a reflection of a contious political strategy by the EPP.
In the last months all the way up to yesterday evening, there were intense negotiations between the EPP and the centre/centre-left on how to get an agreement. The EPP intentionally put the threat of getting its more far-reaching version through with the support of the far-right.
November 13, 2025 at 1:07 PM
In the last months all the way up to yesterday evening, there were intense negotiations between the EPP and the centre/centre-left on how to get an agreement. The EPP intentionally put the threat of getting its more far-reaching version through with the support of the far-right.
Thank you for the thread and the alternative viewpoint on today's vote. But I still think the story is more complicated than this. It is not a case of the EPP accidentially getting a majority with the far-right but rather a calculated move to seek this majority.
November 13, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Thank you for the thread and the alternative viewpoint on today's vote. But I still think the story is more complicated than this. It is not a case of the EPP accidentially getting a majority with the far-right but rather a calculated move to seek this majority.
Don't disagree on this - both the EPP and the S&S/Renew failed to find a majority on the deregulation. My reading though is that the centre-left was willing to vote for deregulation, but not as far as the EPP wanted. But you are right there is plenty of blame to go around.
November 13, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Don't disagree on this - both the EPP and the S&S/Renew failed to find a majority on the deregulation. My reading though is that the centre-left was willing to vote for deregulation, but not as far as the EPP wanted. But you are right there is plenty of blame to go around.
Here we have the far-right Patriots for Europe celebrating their victory, and offering a long-term alternative majority to the EPP:
November 13, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Here we have the far-right Patriots for Europe celebrating their victory, and offering a long-term alternative majority to the EPP:
And here is the second, 'Mr. Hyde' part of today's votes - where the EPP sides with the far-right, ranging from the ECR, to Orban & Le Pen's 'Patriots for Europe' and the AfD's 'Europe of Sovereign Nations' for a centre-right to far-right majority on the Omnibus 'deregulation':
November 13, 2025 at 11:02 AM
And here is the second, 'Mr. Hyde' part of today's votes - where the EPP sides with the far-right, ranging from the ECR, to Orban & Le Pen's 'Patriots for Europe' and the AfD's 'Europe of Sovereign Nations' for a centre-right to far-right majority on the Omnibus 'deregulation':
It is also a testiment to how far Goodwin has fallen that the scandal is no longer about the academic working with Reform, but about Reform working with the racist ex-academic.
November 13, 2025 at 10:54 AM
It is also a testiment to how far Goodwin has fallen that the scandal is no longer about the academic working with Reform, but about Reform working with the racist ex-academic.
The SPD wanted to enter a clause into the coalition treaty that the German government would not vote in favour of initiatives in the Council that only got a majority in the EP with the far-right.
The CDU rejected that, and SPD accepted. So in a sense they also accepted this scenario.
The CDU rejected that, and SPD accepted. So in a sense they also accepted this scenario.
November 13, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The SPD wanted to enter a clause into the coalition treaty that the German government would not vote in favour of initiatives in the Council that only got a majority in the EP with the far-right.
The CDU rejected that, and SPD accepted. So in a sense they also accepted this scenario.
The CDU rejected that, and SPD accepted. So in a sense they also accepted this scenario.
Not necessarily. There is a long history of German coalition parties MEPs voting in different ways than their government, even if this is of course more politically loaded.
November 13, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Not necessarily. There is a long history of German coalition parties MEPs voting in different ways than their government, even if this is of course more politically loaded.
If the vote goes ahead as now likely, I also wonder whether there will be repercussions in Germany. Content-wise, Merz will likely welcome it, but the SPD will not be amused. And Merz will look akward welcoming a decision on the back of far-right, incl likely AfD votes.
November 13, 2025 at 10:03 AM
If the vote goes ahead as now likely, I also wonder whether there will be repercussions in Germany. Content-wise, Merz will likely welcome it, but the SPD will not be amused. And Merz will look akward welcoming a decision on the back of far-right, incl likely AfD votes.
After the vote, @president.europarl.europa.eu promised to the European Council that 'Parliament will deliver'.
@onethuthree.bsky.social highlighted how much this was a partisan view rather than that of a President of the EP. To me, it also signalled the EPP overplaying its hand:
@onethuthree.bsky.social highlighted how much this was a partisan view rather than that of a President of the EP. To me, it also signalled the EPP overplaying its hand:
November 13, 2025 at 9:26 AM
After the vote, @president.europarl.europa.eu promised to the European Council that 'Parliament will deliver'.
@onethuthree.bsky.social highlighted how much this was a partisan view rather than that of a President of the EP. To me, it also signalled the EPP overplaying its hand:
@onethuthree.bsky.social highlighted how much this was a partisan view rather than that of a President of the EP. To me, it also signalled the EPP overplaying its hand:
But while the far-right might gleefully vote with the EPP to 'deregulate', it will just as gleefully reject the EU budget and other important EU legislation.
This will spell real trouble for the EPP, and the functioning of EU policy-making.
This will spell real trouble for the EPP, and the functioning of EU policy-making.
November 13, 2025 at 9:20 AM
But while the far-right might gleefully vote with the EPP to 'deregulate', it will just as gleefully reject the EU budget and other important EU legislation.
This will spell real trouble for the EPP, and the functioning of EU policy-making.
This will spell real trouble for the EPP, and the functioning of EU policy-making.
Today, I feel vindicated by pointing towards that choice.
Because while the EPP may gain policy leverage in the short term, the damage to its credibility in working with the liberals and centre-left on voting with the far-right on such major issues will be deep.
Because while the EPP may gain policy leverage in the short term, the damage to its credibility in working with the liberals and centre-left on voting with the far-right on such major issues will be deep.
November 13, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Today, I feel vindicated by pointing towards that choice.
Because while the EPP may gain policy leverage in the short term, the damage to its credibility in working with the liberals and centre-left on voting with the far-right on such major issues will be deep.
Because while the EPP may gain policy leverage in the short term, the damage to its credibility in working with the liberals and centre-left on voting with the far-right on such major issues will be deep.