Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.
Two very telling graphs on the effects of social media on the public conversation - one from @skynewsrss.bsky.social showing how X is amplifying right-wing politics in the UK, one from Germany showing how TikTok is enhancing far-right _and_ far-left content.
November 7, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Two very telling graphs on the effects of social media on the public conversation - one from @skynewsrss.bsky.social showing how X is amplifying right-wing politics in the UK, one from Germany showing how TikTok is enhancing far-right _and_ far-left content.
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
November 5, 2025 at 8:32 AM
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Auf andere Art höchst bedenklich ist diese Umfrage von Bild/INSA, die direkt nach den rassistischen Untertönen fragt:
October 24, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Auf andere Art höchst bedenklich ist diese Umfrage von Bild/INSA, die direkt nach den rassistischen Untertönen fragt:
From an @euractiv.com analysis on EU-Japan relations - note the UK ranks fourth in terms of EU Commissioner visits this year.
Shows to me that the EU treats the relationship currently as largely 'settled'. It is working, but not a very high priority amongst the many challenges facing the Union.
Shows to me that the EU treats the relationship currently as largely 'settled'. It is working, but not a very high priority amongst the many challenges facing the Union.
October 24, 2025 at 8:21 AM
From an @euractiv.com analysis on EU-Japan relations - note the UK ranks fourth in terms of EU Commissioner visits this year.
Shows to me that the EU treats the relationship currently as largely 'settled'. It is working, but not a very high priority amongst the many challenges facing the Union.
Shows to me that the EU treats the relationship currently as largely 'settled'. It is working, but not a very high priority amongst the many challenges facing the Union.
Outside the EU, the UK is the most prominent partner, but also Ukraine which signed a host of bilateral security agreements.
This creates a web of agreements, but I also agree with the conclusion that these are no substitute for wider European cooperation.
This creates a web of agreements, but I also agree with the conclusion that these are no substitute for wider European cooperation.
October 23, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Outside the EU, the UK is the most prominent partner, but also Ukraine which signed a host of bilateral security agreements.
This creates a web of agreements, but I also agree with the conclusion that these are no substitute for wider European cooperation.
This creates a web of agreements, but I also agree with the conclusion that these are no substitute for wider European cooperation.
I know you are just waiting for the drawing with the camel (all in preparation for the beast lowering its head and spilling its best on the floor...)
October 21, 2025 at 1:39 PM
I know you are just waiting for the drawing with the camel (all in preparation for the beast lowering its head and spilling its best on the floor...)
A sign how far the Westminster bubble of today is from EU affairs - here from today's @politico.eu London playbook about some 'top-level meeting in Brussels' that might happen this week.
Could this be the long planned, agenda packed European Council you are talking about?
Could this be the long planned, agenda packed European Council you are talking about?
October 20, 2025 at 8:11 AM
A sign how far the Westminster bubble of today is from EU affairs - here from today's @politico.eu London playbook about some 'top-level meeting in Brussels' that might happen this week.
Could this be the long planned, agenda packed European Council you are talking about?
Could this be the long planned, agenda packed European Council you are talking about?
Since my timeline is being polluted by that Trump video, here is a video with a certain former UK Prime Minister discovering AI.
And tellingly, what he like most about AI is its sycophancy of telling him always he is the greatest, cleverest and has the best ideas.
And tellingly, what he like most about AI is its sycophancy of telling him always he is the greatest, cleverest and has the best ideas.
October 19, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Since my timeline is being polluted by that Trump video, here is a video with a certain former UK Prime Minister discovering AI.
And tellingly, what he like most about AI is its sycophancy of telling him always he is the greatest, cleverest and has the best ideas.
And tellingly, what he like most about AI is its sycophancy of telling him always he is the greatest, cleverest and has the best ideas.
Saw that US government departments and the White House set up on blue sky.
But if they were not verified, I don't think I would have believed their strongly partisan, trolling language comes from official accounts, all the way to the state department threatening visa revocations for bsky posts.
But if they were not verified, I don't think I would have believed their strongly partisan, trolling language comes from official accounts, all the way to the state department threatening visa revocations for bsky posts.
October 18, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Saw that US government departments and the White House set up on blue sky.
But if they were not verified, I don't think I would have believed their strongly partisan, trolling language comes from official accounts, all the way to the state department threatening visa revocations for bsky posts.
But if they were not verified, I don't think I would have believed their strongly partisan, trolling language comes from official accounts, all the way to the state department threatening visa revocations for bsky posts.
Two unrelated posts directly after each other in my timeline, first about a US general using ChatGPT for advice on his commands, then about Claude only refraining from giving advice to kill people because it knows it is being tested. Scary combination.
October 17, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Two unrelated posts directly after each other in my timeline, first about a US general using ChatGPT for advice on his commands, then about Claude only refraining from giving advice to kill people because it knows it is being tested. Scary combination.
Reading through the document, it is clear where the Commission tries to address criticism.
For instance it stresses a '360° approach', in order to defuse accusations the new initiatives would only focus on Russia and the Eastern EU border.
For instance it stresses a '360° approach', in order to defuse accusations the new initiatives would only focus on Russia and the Eastern EU border.
October 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Reading through the document, it is clear where the Commission tries to address criticism.
For instance it stresses a '360° approach', in order to defuse accusations the new initiatives would only focus on Russia and the Eastern EU border.
For instance it stresses a '360° approach', in order to defuse accusations the new initiatives would only focus on Russia and the Eastern EU border.
For my special focus of interest, good to see clear mention of partnerships, with a special highlight on the UK and Canada.
The negotiations with both London and Ottawa are billed as pioneering access to EU defence instruments:
The negotiations with both London and Ottawa are billed as pioneering access to EU defence instruments:
October 16, 2025 at 12:11 PM
For my special focus of interest, good to see clear mention of partnerships, with a special highlight on the UK and Canada.
The negotiations with both London and Ottawa are billed as pioneering access to EU defence instruments:
The negotiations with both London and Ottawa are billed as pioneering access to EU defence instruments:
Branding age verification and ID cards as 'dystopian' while relocating to and writing from a country that ranks in global bottom third on Internet Freedom, let alone overall human rights, is next level self dillusion.
October 10, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Branding age verification and ID cards as 'dystopian' while relocating to and writing from a country that ranks in global bottom third on Internet Freedom, let alone overall human rights, is next level self dillusion.
-> Although von der Leyen and her Commission easily won the vote, if you look at the country level, French MEPs in majority voted in favour.
This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu
This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu
October 10, 2025 at 6:57 AM
-> Although von der Leyen and her Commission easily won the vote, if you look at the country level, French MEPs in majority voted in favour.
This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu
This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu
Looking back at yesterday's motions of censure against the EU Commission, they really drove down how France's political crisis is spilling over into the EU:
-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'
-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'
October 10, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Looking back at yesterday's motions of censure against the EU Commission, they really drove down how France's political crisis is spilling over into the EU:
-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'
-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'
Occasionally stuff that you can do now with AI hits me, outside of all the slop.
Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.
Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.
October 9, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Occasionally stuff that you can do now with AI hits me, outside of all the slop.
Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.
Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.
Notably, the Commission got a higher votes against either motions than in July.
I read that as the centre-left and centre-right wanting to demonstrate that - for now - these series of motions of no-confidence are a waste of time.
I read that as the centre-left and centre-right wanting to demonstrate that - for now - these series of motions of no-confidence are a waste of time.
October 9, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Notably, the Commission got a higher votes against either motions than in July.
I read that as the centre-left and centre-right wanting to demonstrate that - for now - these series of motions of no-confidence are a waste of time.
I read that as the centre-left and centre-right wanting to demonstrate that - for now - these series of motions of no-confidence are a waste of time.
The S&D will also vote against today's motion of censure against von der Leyen.
But the other side is that trust between the pro-European centre is eroding fast, with threats from the EPP to give vdL 'half a year' and potentially bringing a motion of censure themselves (via @politico.eu).
But the other side is that trust between the pro-European centre is eroding fast, with threats from the EPP to give vdL 'half a year' and potentially bringing a motion of censure themselves (via @politico.eu).
October 9, 2025 at 6:02 AM
The S&D will also vote against today's motion of censure against von der Leyen.
But the other side is that trust between the pro-European centre is eroding fast, with threats from the EPP to give vdL 'half a year' and potentially bringing a motion of censure themselves (via @politico.eu).
But the other side is that trust between the pro-European centre is eroding fast, with threats from the EPP to give vdL 'half a year' and potentially bringing a motion of censure themselves (via @politico.eu).
The two steps of the current political dance in the European Parliament:
In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).
In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).
October 9, 2025 at 6:02 AM
The two steps of the current political dance in the European Parliament:
In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).
In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).
Elon Musk invested so much in warping the political opinions of his AI, and yet grok remains a fan of European Union membership as a key factor of Poland's economic success compared to the UK.
October 8, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Elon Musk invested so much in warping the political opinions of his AI, and yet grok remains a fan of European Union membership as a key factor of Poland's economic success compared to the UK.
According to @table.media, tensions between the EPP and S&D in the European Parliament have become so big that national leaders are starting to intervene, including an exchange on the 'incapacity to act' of the EP with @president.europarl.europa.eu, and Merz & Sanchez mediating Weber & Garcia Perez.
October 8, 2025 at 7:44 AM
According to @table.media, tensions between the EPP and S&D in the European Parliament have become so big that national leaders are starting to intervene, including an exchange on the 'incapacity to act' of the EP with @president.europarl.europa.eu, and Merz & Sanchez mediating Weber & Garcia Perez.
It includes many analysis by great colleagues on all issues surrounding the EP2024 elections.
Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.
Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.
October 7, 2025 at 9:57 AM
It includes many analysis by great colleagues on all issues surrounding the EP2024 elections.
Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.
Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.
Now here in paper - the extensive book coordinated by Michael Harding, Alexander Hoppe and @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu on the EU 2024 elections:
www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...
www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...
October 7, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Now here in paper - the extensive book coordinated by Michael Harding, Alexander Hoppe and @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu on the EU 2024 elections:
www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...
www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...
Via clearsky.app you can check whether you are on some block lists. Turns out I am on a couple of block lists labeled as fascist, racists etc.
Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)
Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Via clearsky.app you can check whether you are on some block lists. Turns out I am on a couple of block lists labeled as fascist, racists etc.
Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)
Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)
I love using bluesky, but sometimes the community is wierd.
So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.
Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.
So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.
Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.
October 7, 2025 at 9:37 AM
I love using bluesky, but sometimes the community is wierd.
So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.
Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.
So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.
Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.