Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.
Pinned
Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".
I wish I'd been more wrong.
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".
I wish I'd been more wrong.
The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe
Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not
www.swp-berlin.org
As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.
Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:
Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
That chart is well worth studying. Share of daily transactions taking place in cash around the world. As an Australian, I’m very much used to cashless everything by now. I’m still totally against going fully cashless.
November 11, 2025 at 6:26 AM
That chart is well worth studying. Share of daily transactions taking place in cash around the world. As an Australian, I’m very much used to cashless everything by now. I’m still totally against going fully cashless.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Read our summary: climate.copernicus.eu/third-warmes...
November 10, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Read our summary: climate.copernicus.eu/third-warmes...
Fair play to Wales... if you were born in Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch, you'd not only be from the longest named place in Europe, but also one few people outside Wales have a chance of pronouncing.
Calm down Wales, calm down… Map shows the longest place names in Europe. HT @Maps_interlude
November 10, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Fair play to Wales... if you were born in Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch, you'd not only be from the longest named place in Europe, but also one few people outside Wales have a chance of pronouncing.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
"Just in the past 12 months, the group held seven meetings with members of the European Parliament, compared to just one in the five years prior, according to Parliament records."
These include MEPs from far-right parties from Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Spain and France.
These include MEPs from far-right parties from Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Spain and France.
The conservative think tank behind Donald Trump’s Project 2025 roadmap is looking for new friends across the Atlantic.
On the agenda: pro-natalism, freedom of expression, opposing trans rights and fighting Chinese influence.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/the-...
On the agenda: pro-natalism, freedom of expression, opposing trans rights and fighting Chinese influence.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/the-...
November 10, 2025 at 1:39 PM
"Just in the past 12 months, the group held seven meetings with members of the European Parliament, compared to just one in the five years prior, according to Parliament records."
These include MEPs from far-right parties from Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Spain and France.
These include MEPs from far-right parties from Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Spain and France.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
November 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Eurozone countries are set to hit record borrowing numbers in 2026, with France at the top of the list.
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
www.lesechos.fr/finance-marc...
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
For this week's issue of @economist.com I got to think hard about something I've not had to think about for more than 20 years: the world of dating and singles. What I found shocked me. Rates of singlehood (singledom) have been rising for decades, but have suddenly accelerated in recent years. 1/
November 7, 2025 at 1:23 PM
For this week's issue of @economist.com I got to think hard about something I've not had to think about for more than 20 years: the world of dating and singles. What I found shocked me. Rates of singlehood (singledom) have been rising for decades, but have suddenly accelerated in recent years. 1/
I know I am the unusual European tech nerd, but most of these proposals - getting rid of the useless cookie banners, making data sharing more easy while still retaining some protection - sound like positive steps to me as a European consumer.
Gestern habe ich noch über Gerüchte geschrieben, heute veröffentlichen wir die Dokumente, die belegen: Die EU-Kommission plant einen Frontalangriff auf den Datenschutz.
Mit @daniel.netzpolitik.org
netzpolitik.org/2025/digital...
Mit @daniel.netzpolitik.org
netzpolitik.org/2025/digital...
„Digitaler Omnibus“: EU-Kommission will Datenschutzgrundverordnung und KI-Regulierung schleifen
In weniger als zwei Wochen will die EU-Kommission einen umfassenden Gesetzesvorschlag präsentieren. Der
netzpolitik.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I know I am the unusual European tech nerd, but most of these proposals - getting rid of the useless cookie banners, making data sharing more easy while still retaining some protection - sound like positive steps to me as a European consumer.
Two very telling graphs on the effects of social media on the public conversation - one from @skynewsrss.bsky.social showing how X is amplifying right-wing politics in the UK, one from Germany showing how TikTok is enhancing far-right _and_ far-left content.
November 7, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Two very telling graphs on the effects of social media on the public conversation - one from @skynewsrss.bsky.social showing how X is amplifying right-wing politics in the UK, one from Germany showing how TikTok is enhancing far-right _and_ far-left content.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Not a bad first step in strengthening formalised connections between NATO members and Ukraine.
In practice likely very limited changes operationally, noting that JEF deals primarily with Baltic and Arctic security.
In practice likely very limited changes operationally, noting that JEF deals primarily with Baltic and Arctic security.
Headline is a bit misleading - Ukraine has signed an enhanced partnership with the JEF, but will not become a member. Though the partnership will be extensive, and includes also "lessons from the battlefield" of Ukraine to JEF countries (UK, Nordics)
See more here:
See more here:
November 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Not a bad first step in strengthening formalised connections between NATO members and Ukraine.
In practice likely very limited changes operationally, noting that JEF deals primarily with Baltic and Arctic security.
In practice likely very limited changes operationally, noting that JEF deals primarily with Baltic and Arctic security.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
Headline is a bit misleading - Ukraine has signed an enhanced partnership with the JEF, but will not become a member. Though the partnership will be extensive, and includes also "lessons from the battlefield" of Ukraine to JEF countries (UK, Nordics)
See more here:
See more here:
November 7, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Headline is a bit misleading - Ukraine has signed an enhanced partnership with the JEF, but will not become a member. Though the partnership will be extensive, and includes also "lessons from the battlefield" of Ukraine to JEF countries (UK, Nordics)
See more here:
See more here:
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
Computational Turing Test Reveals Systematic Differences Between Human and AI Language
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the social sciences to simulate human behavior, based on the assumption that they can generate realistic, human-like text. Yet this assumption rem...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
The EU makes many mistakes and should show far more flexibility towards North and West African states in trading relations.
That is a separate matter from a UK government that talks a Europe-friendly game yet still manages to burn goodwill with partners in the EU over minor sums
That is a separate matter from a UK government that talks a Europe-friendly game yet still manages to burn goodwill with partners in the EU over minor sums
November 7, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The EU makes many mistakes and should show far more flexibility towards North and West African states in trading relations.
That is a separate matter from a UK government that talks a Europe-friendly game yet still manages to burn goodwill with partners in the EU over minor sums
That is a separate matter from a UK government that talks a Europe-friendly game yet still manages to burn goodwill with partners in the EU over minor sums
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
I have issues with this headline and subtitle. Progressive ≠ anti-war. Support for NATO ≠ pro-war.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
Ireland’s Next President Will Assume the Progressive Mantle
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
foreignpolicy.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 PM
I have issues with this headline and subtitle. Progressive ≠ anti-war. Support for NATO ≠ pro-war.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Conflating these issues is unhelpful given the state of the world. I worry this kind of binary thinking will only get worse as the public discourse about security takes off.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Jordan Bardella starts to lay out his plans
The 30-year-old French populist who is preparing for power
www.economist.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Bardella wants the ECB (read: Banque de France and other Eurosystem banks) to buy an unlimited amount of French debt.
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Other eurozone countries will be delighted at the opportunity to co-finance one of the most generous pension systems in Europe.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
An update of progress on EU-UK negotiations of the Strategic Partnership/Common Understanding agenda from May's summit
tl;dr barring SAFE, not much to see
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic141
tl;dr barring SAFE, not much to see
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic141
November 6, 2025 at 9:12 AM
An update of progress on EU-UK negotiations of the Strategic Partnership/Common Understanding agenda from May's summit
tl;dr barring SAFE, not much to see
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic141
tl;dr barring SAFE, not much to see
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic141
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
A 🇩🇪🇬🇧 Business Forum will facilitate dialogue between our governments and businesses from next year – a direct result of the #KensingtonTreaty. Good to speak about the close ties between our economies with the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce and members.
November 5, 2025 at 3:19 PM
A 🇩🇪🇬🇧 Business Forum will facilitate dialogue between our governments and businesses from next year – a direct result of the #KensingtonTreaty. Good to speak about the close ties between our economies with the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce and members.
Fascinating paper from IFRI, and the framing itself is a sign of the times - a Europe-Russia power balance.
The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."
The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."
🇪🇺🇷🇺 #Europe - #Russia: Political Systems and Societal Resilience.
🔎 Read Ifri's new collective Study: "Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review". www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
🔎 Read Ifri's new collective Study: "Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review". www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
November 5, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Fascinating paper from IFRI, and the framing itself is a sign of the times - a Europe-Russia power balance.
The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."
The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
November 5, 2025 at 8:32 AM
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Babišs Erklärung: was uns verbindet, war der Wunsch, die bisherige Regierung zu stürzen. Für den Rest werden wir uns einigen. Enthusiasmus pur. 4
November 4, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Babišs Erklärung: was uns verbindet, war der Wunsch, die bisherige Regierung zu stürzen. Für den Rest werden wir uns einigen. Enthusiasmus pur. 4
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Der Sammelband zur #EP2024 ist jetzt auch in deutscher Sprache erschienen. Mein Beitrag analysiert mithilfe der FPS-Methode, wie sich die Kräfteverhältnisse im Europäischen Parlament in einer vollständig erweiterten EU verändern könnten. 👉 doi.org/10.1007/978-... #EUEnlargement #EUErweiterung
November 4, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Der Sammelband zur #EP2024 ist jetzt auch in deutscher Sprache erschienen. Mein Beitrag analysiert mithilfe der FPS-Methode, wie sich die Kräfteverhältnisse im Europäischen Parlament in einer vollständig erweiterten EU verändern könnten. 👉 doi.org/10.1007/978-... #EUEnlargement #EUErweiterung
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Awful...
European leaders including Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering Donald Trump.
European leaders including Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering Donald Trump.
EU Leaders Skip Latin American Summit to Avoid Irking Trump
European leaders including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering US President Donald Trump.
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Awful...
European leaders including Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering Donald Trump.
European leaders including Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering Donald Trump.